Stokes Sounds Off: General Conference Predictions Results

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Wednesday, April 13, 2016

General Conference Predictions Results

Hi, guys! I know I've been off the grid for a couple of weeks now for a very good reason. Amy and I have been laid up with...(drumroll please)....the flu! Yep, I was officially diagnosed with it on Friday after dealing with the symptoms for several days prior. The doctor recommended Tamiflu for both of us, twice daily for five days for me, and once daily for five days for Amy. I have been on it and am still feeling like death warmed over. We were unable to get it for Amy because her stupid insurance won't cover it, and they won't give her something else unless she's seen in clinic, neither of which we can afford at the moment. I have been really worried about Amy because she has had some general symptoms, and we've both been ill for a couple of weeks. At least we know what it is now.

On to more pleasant subjects. General Conference was amazing.  The next  few posts I do will highlight the results of my predictions. Before I post my predictions along with what actually transpired, just a few comments. As some of you may have noticed, the 11 General Authority Seventies sustained in the Saturday Afternoon Session were not listed as belonging to a specific quorum. I spoke to my team leader, John Thomas, about this unusual occurrence. Being the amazing person that he is, he stated that most people won't care about this and that, in his mind, it was done to prevent people from putting the First Quorum on a higher plane than the Second Quorum. His explanation made sense, and his rebuke had a positive impact on me. However, as a Wikipedian and avid Church History fan, I was curious. So I e-mailed the Church website about this. They said that they weren't sure why there was no differentiation,  but that it could have been that there just wasn't any time when sustaining them to make the distinction. They did say that the Church News would run articles about the new Church leaders, and that these articles would likely disclose the Quorum assignments. In the meantime, as far as Wikipedia is concerned, until the quorum affiliation is known, the new leaders have been put into a new category called "General Authority Seventies".

That being said, there were some surprises. I didn't anticipate President Monson's talks would be so brief. His total remark length is less than 10 minutes. It's hard to see him get old. Also, I was delighted to see that I nailed the apostolic speaking order more closely than ever before. Those following my original predictions will note that I had Elder Renlund and President Nelson flip-flopped, and that I was better than ever before about the order in which apostles and seventies spoke. I also had the auxiliary speakers nailed pretty well. I had hoped that Mary R. Durham would have some future role in a new Primary General Presidency, but I'm not by any means dismayed by those who were called. As always, I sustain them with all my heart. I think it's sad that the last few conferences, there have been people who vocally voiced their opposition in what is usually a silent vote of sustaining support for those we sustain as prophets, seers, and revelators. I did a blog post about sustaining the prophet and accepting the revelation that comes from him. It is tragic when people find fault with our leaders, who, though imperfect, nevertheless act with inspiration from on high/ And the saddest part is, if they took the effort to do so, they could learn for themselves that what comes from the Brethren is in harmony with the Lord's will.

Who can forget the announcement of four temples. I had two of the four locations nailed exactly and the wrong city for the Brazil temple. And I was pleased to hear of the second temple for Lima Peru. I am ecstatic about the temple news, which I will focus a special blog post on.

Finally, before giving my predictions results, I wanted to note that among those sustained as new General Authorities is the brother of Elder L. Whitney Clayton, who currently serves as Senior President of the Seventy. A majority of those called as General Authority have been or were currently Area Seventies at the time of their call. I am working on updating my various lists of area seventies and will, if you like, post the fruits of my labor here once it is completed. I also wanted to note that the Church has finally put out an updated list of Area Seventies, but for some reason, it does not include those sustained last year, even though the information regarding those called this conference is accurate.

With that glowing introduction, you may find my predictions disappointing. I hope not. Let me know what you think.

April 2016 General Conference Predictions
Speaking Order (Text in brackets indicated what actually happened.)
Session
Conducting
Speaker
General Women’s
Rosemary M. Wixom
Linda K. Burton [Cheryl A. Esplin]


Cheryl A. Esplin [Neill F. Marriott]


Neill F. Marriott [Linda K. Burton]


President Henry B. Eyring
Saturday Morning
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
President Henry B. Eyring


President Russell M. Nelson [Mary R. Durham]


Elder Gerrit W. Gong [Elder Donald L. Hallstrom]


Mary R. Durham [Elder Gary E. Stevenson]


Elder Yoon Hwan Choi [Elder Kevin R. Duncan]


Elder Per G. Malm [Elder Steven E. Snow]


Elder Gary E. Stevenson [Elder Dale G. Renlund]
Saturday Afternoon
President Henry B. Eyring
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf (Sustaining of Church Officers)

Church Auditing Department Report, 2015
Kevin R. Jergensen

Statistical Report, 2015
Brook P. Hales


Elder Ronald A. Rasband


Elder M. Russell Ballard [Elder Neil L. Andersen]


Elder Patrick Kearon [Elder Mervyn B. Arnold]


Elder Mervyn B. Arnold [Elder Jairo Mazzagardi]


Elder Neil L. Andersen [Elder David A. Bednar]


Elder David A. Bednar [Elder M. Russell Ballard]
Saturday Priesthood
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
Elder Dale G. Renlund [President Russell M. Nelson]


Bishop Gerald Causse [No one]


Stephen W. Owen


President Dieter F. Uchtdorf


President Henry B. Eyring


President Thomas S. Monson
Sunday Morning
President Henry B. Eyring
President Thomas S. Monson


Elder Quentin L. Cook [Bonnie L. Oscarson]


Elder Donald L. Hallstrom [Bishop W. Christopher Waddell]


Bonnie L. Oscarson [Elder D. Todd Christofferson]


Elder Jairo Mazzagardi [Elder Quentin L. Cook]


Elder D. Todd Christofferson [No one]


President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
Sunday Afternoon
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
Elder Robert D. Hales


Elder Jeffrey R. Holland [Elder Gerrit W. Gong]


Elder Juan A. Uceda [Elder Patrick Kearon]


Elder Kent F. Richards [Elder Dallin H. Oaks]


Elder Benjamin De Hoyos [Elder Kent F. Richards]


Elder Steven E. Snow [Elder Paul V. Johnson]


Elder Dallin H. Oaks [Elder Jeffrey R. Holland]

Changes in General Church Leadership
Presidency of the Seventy: Elder Gerrit W. Gong sustained as a new member to replace Elder Ronald A. Rasband, who became a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles in October 2015.
NOTE: Elder Rasband’s call to the apostleship in October 2015 left a vacancy in the Presidency of the Seventy that was not filled during General Conference but a couple of days later. Elder L. Whitney Clayton was named the new senior president of the Seventy (a position previously held by Elder Rasband), and Elder Gong was called to fill the vacancy. It makes sense that Elder Gong’s call will be ratified by sustaining vote during this conference.
RESULT: Elder Gong’s call was not ratified by sustaining vote. It appears that an official announcement by the Church constitutes a sustaining vote being taken.
First Quorum of the Seventy: Elder W. Christopher Waddell released in view of his new calling as Second Counselor in the Presiding Bishopric; new members sustained from the Second Quorum of the Seventy, Area Seventies, or the Church at large.
NOTE: Elder Waddell’s call as the new Second Counselor in the Presiding Bishopric had been announced in October 2015, shortly after General Conference. It makes sense that this change, along with any sustainings, will be ratified by sustaining vote during this conference.
RESULT: No new members were sustained to the First Quorum of the Seventy. Instead, the new General Authorities were merely sustained as General Authority Seventies, signaling a new direction in Church policy.
Second Quorum of the Seventy: New members sustained from Area Seventies or Church at large.
NOTE: Members of the Second Quorum of the Seventy are usually sustained in April and released in October, so it makes sense that any sustainings would be presented in April.
RESULT: No new members were sustained to the First Quorum of the Seventy. Instead, the new General Authorities were merely sustained as General Authority Seventies, signaling a new direction in Church policy.
NOT PREDICTED: The new General Authority Seventies were not sustained to a specific quorum and were simply sustained as General Authority Seventies. There were 11 men called this time, namely: W. Mark Bassett, Mark A. Bragg, Weatherford T. Clayton, Valeri V. Cordon, Joaquin E. Costa, Massimo De Feo, Peter F. Meurs, K. Brett Nattress, S. Mark Palmer, Gary B. Sabin, Evan A. Schmutz.
Presiding Bishopric: Bishop Gary E. Stevenson released as Presiding Bishop in view of his call to the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles; Bishop Gerald Causse released as First Counselor and sustained as the new Presiding Bishop; Bishop Dean M. Davies released as Second Counselor and sustained as the new First Counselor; Bishop W. Christopher Waddell sustained as the new Second Counselor.
NOTE: When Bishop Stevenson was called to the Twelve in October 2015, he retained the calling of Presiding Bishop until the changes noted above took place a few days after the conference, so these changes will need to be ratified by sustaining vote during this conference.
RESULT: These changes were not ratified by sustaining vote. It appears that an official announcement by the Church constitutes a sustaining vote being taken.
Area Seventies: Releases and sustainings for several Area Seventies.
NOTE: It seems to be a common practice for most releases and/or sustainings of Area Seventies to happen in April, when President Dieter F. Uchtdorf leads out in the sustaining of Church officers, while only a few releases and sustainings of Area Seventies happen in October, when President Henry B. Eyring leads out in the sustaining.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: We know that, at the very least, the following currently-serving Area Seventies, who have been called to be mission presidents, will be released: Kent J. Allen, Jeffrey D. Cummings, Hernán D. Ferreira, Brent J. Hillier, Alfred Kyungu, D. Zackary Smith, Wenceslao H. Svec, and Fabian I. Vallejo.
RESULT: The above-named brethren, along with 43 others, were released, and 62 new Area Seventies were sustained.
Primary General Presidency: Rosemary M. Wixom released as President, Cheryl A. Esplin released as First Counselor, and Mary R. Durham released as Second Counselor. New Primary General Presidency sustained, perhaps with Mary R. Durham being sustained as the new Primary General President or one of the counselors.
NOTE: Rosemary M. Wixom, the Primary General President, and her First Counselor Cheryl A. Esplin, have served since April 2010, a period spanning 6 years. In the earlier days of the Church, tenures of general auxiliary presidencies were not set to any specific length of time. But for at least the last 20 years, tenure lengths for general auxiliary presidencies are generally set at 5 years (with a minimum of 6 years if new presidency members are sustained without a total reorganization of the presidency). It makes sense that Sisters Wixom and Esplin would be released. It has been a relatively common practice for members of General Presidencies who have been in a year, as Mary R. Durham has, to be retained in a newly called presidency. So it would make sense if the changes above take place.
RESULT: The Primary General Presidency was released. A new Primary General Presidency was sustained: Joy D. Jones, President; Jean B. Bingham, First Counselor; and Bonnie H. Cordon, Second Counselor.

Church Statistics at the end of 2015 [Text in brackets denote actual numbers]
Stakes
3,174
Missions
417 [418]
Districts
580 [558]
Wards and Branches
30,061 [30,016]
Total Church Membership
15,683,533 [15,634,199]
Children of Record Increase
114,655 [114,550]
Convert Baptisms
307,541 [257,402]
Full-Time Missionaries
84,091 [74,079]
Church Service Missionaries
32,102 [31,779]
Temples Dedicated
5 (Cordoba Argentina, Payson Utah, Trujillo Peru, Indianapolis Indiana, Tijuana Mexico)
Temples Rededicated
2 (Mexico City Mexico, Montreal Quebec Canada) [
Temples Operating
149

New Temple Announcements: 3+ temples announced around the world, with the most likely candidates being American Samoa (Pago Pago); Arkansas (Bentonville or Rogers); Paraguay (Ciudad del Este); Utah (Layton or Lehi); Brazil (Belo Horizonte); Venezuela (Maracaibo; temple proposed by President Hinckley); Philippines (Davao); Bolivia (La Paz); Texas (Fort Worth); Colorado (Colorado Springs); Austria (Vienna); Arizona (Chandler); Mexico (Guadalajara); Guatemala (Villa Nueva); Ecuador (Quito); New Zealand (Auckland); Texas (Katy); Idaho (Pocatello); Zimbabwe (Harare); Uganda; Kenya (Nairobi (proposed by President Hinckley); Nevada (Henderson); Peru (Iquitos);  California (Long Beach); Philippines (Quezon City); Mongolia (Ulaanbaatar) and Mexico (Cuernavaca).

NOTE: The following 4 new temples were announced: Quito, Ecuador; Harare Zimbabwe; Belem, Brazil; Lima Peru.


151/219 points possible=71.9% accuracy on these predictions

As you can see, I fell smack dab between my usual accuracy rate of 60-80%, which, considering all the new predictions I made, is not bad. Btw, I  don't know how many of you are reading the comments here on my blog, but one of my newer readers said he found the fact that my predictions are jammed together in one post to be confusing and cumbersome. He certainly has a right to his own opinion. I happen to like having them all together. What do you guys think? Feel free to leave a comment below. Thanks.

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