October 2018 Apostolic Speaking Order Predictions: Part One--Preface and History in Recent General Conferences

Hello again, everyone! Although there have been a few significant Church news stories that I have felt deserve mentions on this blog in the last few days, I have not been able to post about those in view of some minor health issues that have slowed me down. Nothing too serious, thank goodness. We found out that my iron levels are currently deficient, and that the kind of deficiency I have would not be effectively treated by iron supplements, so we are in the process of getting approval from my insurance for an infusion. Hopefully that approval will be granted within the next week or less. But the lack of energy I have dealt with as a result of that deficiency is the reason I have not posted any new content in the last five days.

It is time to remedy that situation. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I have been working on refining my predictions for the October 2018 General Conference. Although that conference is still around four months away, I am continuing those efforts.

I am posting this now to request comments on the most likely potential speaking order for members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. I have determined to split this subject into two posts. In this first one, I will set the background for what has molded my thoughts on this subject, and in the second, I will be presenting a couple of scenarios that seem most likely to occur for the next General Conference.

As I mentioned previously, there have been patterns in recent years to the rotation by which the 12 men in that Quorum have spoken in the five general sessions of conference. It has typically been tradition that 2 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles will speak in both of the morning sessions, with 4 on Saturday Afternoon, 1 during the Priesthood Session, and the final 3 on Sunday Afternoon. But there have been a handful of exceptions to that rotation recently.

This has been especially true for the General Conferences in October 2015 and April 2018, when we saw 3 and 2 new apostles respectively announced. To preface my observations about what could occur for the October 2018 General Conference, I will be discussing the 7 General Conferences from April 2015 to April 2018.

And I will approach this discussion in a rather unique way.Since my intent is to determine how many apostles might speak in each of the five general sessions for October 2018, I will be giving a brief rundown by session of how many apostles spoke. That may sound confusing at first, but you will see what I mean.

We start with the Saturday Morning Session. In 4 of the 7 relevant General Conferences, we have seen two members of the Quorum of the Twelve speak. The 3 exceptions to that were April 2015, October 2017, and April 2018. Whether or not the October 2018 General Conference is regular or an exception in terms of this session will likely depend on whether or not any members of the Quorum of the Twelve speak during the Women's Session. Right now, I am assuming that will not be the case, but I could be wrong. With that in mind, I have felt that we will likely see 3 members of that Quorum speak during the Saturday Morning Session.

We now move on to the Saturday Afternoon Session. Again here, 4 of the 7 General Conferences saw 4 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speak during that session. For 2 of the remaining 3, 3 apostles spoke during the Saturday Afternoon Session. The one real exception for this session was the April 2018 General Conference, in which only 2 members of the Quorum spoke during that session.

For the Priesthood Session, 6 of the 7 saw 1 member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speak. The one exception to that was last April, when 2 Quorum members spoke. That may not be a determining factor for the October 2018 General Conference, unless the First Presidency assigns one Quorum member to speak during the Women's Session. It will be interesting to see what happens in that regard.

Regarding the Sunday Morning Session, although 2 Quorum members have typically spoken, 4 of the last 7 General Conferences have been atypical in that regard. Due to the calls of 3 new apostles in October 2015, 4 members of the Quorum (including one veteran apostle) spoke. In April 2015 and October 2017, the absence of 1 apostle due to ill health resulted in only 1 Quorum member speaking during that session. And last General Conference, in view of the different format, no members of the Quorum of the Twelve were asked to speak on Sunday Morning.

Quick sidenote here: That last exception was likely due to the different format because of the announced changes in policy, the call of two new Quorum members, and to allow the entire First Presidency to speak on Sunday Morning. For that reason, I have felt confident that the October 2018 General Conference will see the typical 2 members speak during the Sunday Morning Session.

That brings us to the Sunday Afternoon Session. In 4 of the 7 General Conferences, the typical final 3 Quorum members spoke in that final session. In 2 others (October 2015 and October 2017). As was the case for other sessions mentioned above, the April 2018 General Conference was a huge exception to the rule of 3 Quorum members speaking.

For the first time that I can recall, we heard from almost half of the 12 Quorum members (5 total) in a single session. Again, that was more due to the policy announcements, the entire First Presidency speaking during the Sunday Morning Session, and the fact that two new Quorum members were called. I fully anticipate that, barring anything unexpected, we will hear from the final 3 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles in October.

This concludes the first part of my coverage of this subject, so that does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

Church News Report: Elder Dale G. Renlund Returns to Sweden

Hello again, everyone! As some of you may be aware, when Elders Rasband, Stevenson, and Renlund were called as apostles in 2015, there was quite a bit of backlash from the general public about the fact that all of them were born within the US. But many blogs and newspaper articles pointed out (quite correctly) that Elder Renlund's father was born in Finland, his mother was born in Sweden, and he grew up speaking Swedish in his home, although he spoke English everywhere else he went. From those who wrote about that, the general consensus was that Elder Renlund's bilingual experiences qualified him as an apostle with international appeal.

My purpose in mentioning all of this is to note this inspiring story from the Church News, which shares how Elder Renlund recently returned to very familiar territory. On assignment to Italy to speak at a conference on the subject of religion and health, he found he had an unassigned Sunday. So he checked with Elder Paul V. Johnson, Europe Area President, to see if he could be of use somewhere.

Quick sidenote here: The fact that Elder Renlund reached out to the area president to know where he might be needed is another in the series of examples we see of how general Church leaders cooperate with and defer to other general or local leaders in their travels. Elder Renlund could easily have opted to determine for himself where to go, but he recognized that Elder Johnson would be in a better position to know where he might be needed on that day, and he took the opportunity to ask. That was awesome to hear.

Since Elder Johnson knew of Elder Renlund's connection to Sweden (born of his familial ties in addition to his missionary service in Sweden), his suggestion was that Elder Renlund should visit the Saints in that nation. Not only did this enable Elder Renlund to speak to those members of the Church in their native language, but it also gave him the opportunity to reconnect with many members of his extended family, who still reside in that nation.

It was awesome to hear of this opportunity Elder Renlund had. His willingness to seek out and defer to the suggestion of the area president was inspiring, and enabled him to have a very personal experience in a place to which he had such a strong familial connection.

I continue to monitor all Church news and will pass those developments along to you all as I receive word of them. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

Additional New Temple Presidents Announced

Hello again, everyone! The Church News continues to report the calls of new temple presidents. With those announced today, there have been 50 new temple presidents called this year so far. As I mentioned previously, the Church generally notes new presidents for roughly 1/3 of all operating temples. Since there are 159 operating temples (which will go up to 161 by the end of this year), it will be interesting to see how many other temples get a new president.

I would imagine we will shortly hear of the first presidents for at least the Concepcion Chile and Barranquilla Colombia Temples, which are set to be dedicated before the end of this year. And it wouldn't surprise me to learn of the first presidents for other temples anticipated to be dedicated in the early months of next year.

As has happened a few times this year, with this latest group of new temple presidents, there was one temple (Suva Fiji) which was not originally on my list of those that might get a new president, but one has been called for that temple.

The updated list follows below. I continue to monitor all developments of this sort and will bring word of those to you all as I receive them. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

New presidents have been called for the following temples:

1.      Manaus Brazil

2.      Boise Idaho

3.      Denver Colorado

4.      The Hague Netherlands

5.      Oquirrh Mountain Utah

6.      Helsinki Finland

7.      The Gila Valley Arizona

8.      Brigham City Utah

9.      Stockholm Sweden

10.  Palmyra New York

11.  Accra Ghana

12.  Papeete Tahiti

13.  Sao Paulo Brazil

14.  San Jose Costa Rica

15.  Albuquerque New Mexico

16.  Provo City Center

17.  Recife Brazil

18.  Cardston Alberta

19.  Payson Utah

20.  Porto Alegre Brazil

21.  Brisbane Australia

22.  Kansas City Missouri

23.  Oaxaca Mexico

24.  Regina Saskatchewan

25.  Cebu City Philippines

26.  Boston Massachusetts

27.  Colonia Juarez Chihuahua Mexico

28.  Billings Montana

29.  Houston Texas

30.  Sydney Australia

31.  Guatemala City Guatemala

32.  Hermosillo Sonora Mexico

33.  Montevideo Uruguay

34.  Indianapolis Indiana

35.  Laie Hawaii Temple (the new president of this temple is the older brother of General Authority Seventy Elder Donald L. Hallstrom)

36.  Las Vegas Nevada

37.  Atlanta Georgia

38.  Buenos Aires Argentina

39.  Redlands California

40.  Draper Utah

41.  Tijuana Mexico

42.  Sacramento California

43.  Monticello Utah

44.  Bountiful Utah

45.  Freiberg Germany

46.  Oakland California

47.  Villahermosa Mexico

48.  Manti Utah

49.  Suva Fiji

50.  Vancouver British Columbia

The first presidents will likely be announced for the following new temples:

1.      Concepcion Chile

2.      Barranquilla Colombia

3.      Rome Italy

4.      Kinshasa DR Congo

5.      Fortaleza Brazil

6.      Port-au-Prince Haiti

New presidents may also be announced for the following temples:

1.      Cordoba Argentina

2.      Fukuoka Japan

3.      St. Louis Missouri

4.      Taipei Taiwan

5.      Tegucigalpa Honduras

6.      Trujillo Peru

7.      Veracruz Mexico

8.      Washington D. C. Temple (Note: The Church may opt to wait on calling a new president for this temple until 2020 when it is rededicated)

Miscellaneous Church News Reported

Hello again, everyone! I wanted to post again now with some Church news updates. There's a lot to cover, so let's get right to it. First of all, a few days ago, the Church News shared this report on the funeral services held recently for Elder Vaughn J. Featherstone. General Church leaders in attendance at the funeral services included Presidents Russell M. Nelson and Henry B. Eyring of the First Presidency (with President Eyring representing the Brethren in speaking at the funeral, in view of his long friendship with Elder Featherstone) and Elders Jeffrey R. Holland and Quentin L. Cook of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. It sounds like the service was a fitting tribute to this remarkable servant of God.

Less than 24 hours following the rededication of the Jordan River Utah Temple, the Church News released the text of the rededicatory prayer written and offered by President Eyring, who quoted many things said in the original dedicatory prayer penned by President Spencer W. Kimball, and offered by President Marion G. Romney, both of whom, as I mentioned earlier this week, have a familial connection to President Eyring.

The Church announced yesterday (May 22) that nearly 170 missionaries currently serving in Nicaragua would be relocated, due to political unrest and in consideration of their safety. Those nearing the end of their service period will be honorably released to return home, and those who remain will be reassigned to missions in North and South America or Europe.

It is heartbreaking in a way to see that happening, since the Church is in the preliminary stages of trying to get a temple built there, but hopefully things will settle down sufficiently enough to allow the missionaries to return and for work to begin on the temple before too much longer. You can find more details in this Church News article and this release from Mormon Newsroom.

President M. Russell Ballard, Acting President of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, in company with Elder Gary E. Stevenson and other leaders, recently visited Saints residing in Australia and New Zealand, at which time, he encouraged Church members to "keep it simple" when sharing the gospel. You can read more about their ministry among these members from the Church News and Mormon Newsroom.

In the meantime, from the Blog section of Mormon Newsroom, the Church shared this report highlighting Elder Dieter F. Uchtdorf's recent visit to Germany, during which time he presented the president of Germany with his family history. And, in continuation of the cooperative effort between the Church and the NAACP, this article highlights a luncheon that featured addresses from individuals on both sides of that effort.

The Church News also shared this account of a recent address given by Elder Anthony D. Perkins of the Seventy during a BYU-Idaho Devotional, this article highlighting a message given during the BYU Women's Conference by Sister Kathy Andersen, wife of Elder Neil L. Andersen, which emphasized following the watchman on the tower, and this article from the new Young Women General Presidency, which notes that, while programs and methods may change, the doctrines of the Church will not.

And finally, in a continuation of the Church's ongoing efforts to increase transparency, this article was released on the subject of how Church finances are managed and distributed. That article was apparently a companion piece to this post by Presiding Bishop Gerald Causse, who wrote some thoughts on why and how the Church preaches and practices financial self-reliance. To provide more context for both of those resources, the Church included these questions (and their answers).

Here's the interesting thing about those materials being published now. I have been involved in my fair share of conversations with people not of our faith who suggest that, instead of spending money on temples or anything else, the money coming into the Church should be used to help the poor. I don't know how it is that people don't seem to understand that the Church is doing both. I have seen (and been positively influenced by) the process by which the Church holds itself accountable for the expenditures of Church resources. And so on that level, these materials are a timely release indeed.

We live in a most remarkable time. Not only is the Lord hastening His work in miraculous ways, but we have also entered an era where more information about the day-to-day ministry of the leaders of His church is being published, and where the Church and its' leaders are truly interested in being more transparent and promoting greater understanding of and cooperation with those not of our faith.

I continue to monitor all such developments and will do my level best to keep passing those along to you as i become aware of them. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

Requesting Feedback for Refinement of October 2018 General Conference Speaking Order Predictions

Hello again, everyone! In an effort to refine my predictions for the potential speaking order of the October 2018 General Conference, I am posting a revised version of those predictions. These revisions have come as a result of study on my part. And I wanted to take this opportunity to solicit your feedback on the revisions. A few questions I considered in the process of those revisions were as follows:

1. It has typically been traditional for the counselors in the First Presidency to alternate being the last speaker during the Saturday Morning Session and the first speaker during the Sunday Morning Session. While there have been exceptions (such as last April), that has generally been the case. Will that prove correct this go-round?
2. In my opinion, President Oaks did an amazing job with the long list of releases and sustainings of area seventies last month. With that in mind, would it be fair to assume that President Eyring will continue to lead the sustaining vote in October, when comparatively less changes occur?
2. Will the Women's Session continue to be conducted by one of the three presidents of the female-led auxiliaries, or would that task be performed by a First Presidency member?
3. Would the entire First Presidency speak during the Women's Session every October, as they did for the Priesthood Session every conference before this upcoming one?
4. Would the First Presidency invite a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles and/or other male general authorities to speak during the Women's Session?
5. If we do not hear from a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles during the Women's Session, when would the Church fit in the last member of the Quorum of the Twelve?
5. How might the Women's Session being held in the spot tradtionally reserved for the Priesthood Session alter the number of general officers who speak to us in the other four sessions.
6. Would the Church continue to have just one member of the Presidency of the Seventy speak (as we saw last month) or will we hear from 2 members of that presidency, as has been traditional in recent years?
7. Is there anything I need to keep in mind when considering the number or names of the General Authority Seventies who might speak? I know that the last few Octobers have seen a pretty even blend of new GA Seventies that were called the previous April and veteran General Authorities speaking for the second or third time (if not more than that).

In the revised predictions I have put together, I have attempted to provide the best answers I can to these questions. That said, I recognize we are going to be in somewhat uncharted territory next conference, primarily because the Women's Session will be held in the slot that has typically been reserved for the Priesthood Session.

Those revised predictions follow below. So as not to disturb their flow, I will end here as I always do. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

October 2018 General Conference Predictions[i]

Session	Conducting	Speakers
Saturday Morning	President Russell M. Nelson	President Russell M. Nelson
		Elder Terence M. Vinson
		Elder Quentin L. Cook
		Elder Jack N. Gerard
		Elder Gerrit W. Gong
		Elder Walter F. Gonzalez
		Elder Ronald A. Rasband
		President Dallin H. Oaks
Saturday Afternoon	President Dallin H. Oaks	President Henry B. Eyring (Sustaining of Church Officers)
		Elder Dieter F. Uchtdorf
		Bishop Dean M. Davies
		Elder Gary E. Stevenson
		Elder D. Todd Christofferson
		Elder Craig A. Cardon
		Elder Juan Pablo Villar
		Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
Women’s Session	Joy D. Jones	Cristina B. Franco
		Michelle D. Craig
		Jean B. Bingham
		President Henry B. Eyring
		President Dallin H. Oaks
		President Russell M. Nelson
Sunday Morning	President Russell M. Nelson	President Henry B. Eyring
		Bonnie H. Cordon
		Elder Ulisses Soares
		Elder Robert C. Gay
		Elder Takashi Wada
		Elder Neil L. Andersen
		President Russell M. Nelson
Sunday Afternoon	President Henry B. Eyring	President M. Russell Ballard
		Brian K. Ashton
		Elder Mathias Held
		Elder Dale G. Renlund
		Elder Scott D. Whiting
		Elder Paul B. Pieper
		Elder David A. Bednar
		President Russell M. Nelson

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[i]Although General Conferences in the past 20 years or so have typically conformed to general patterns in terms of the traditional speaking order, there have been a handful of exceptions. The most recent of those, of course, occurred with the April 2018 General Conference, when a Solemn Assembly was held, two new apostles were called, and the announced changes in policy and practice resulted in a completely different speaking order format. And in view of the October 27, 2017 announcement that the Priesthood and Women’s sessions would both be held annually, with the former being held every April, and the latter every October, it is almost certain that this will necessitate additional alterations to the typical format. While it may be a year or two until we know what the “new traditional format” will look like, the predictions for the speaking order of this General Conference are molded by assumptions, which may or may not prove accurate. With that in mind, the thoughts below represent my best efforts to figure out how all of that might work. And until I have a better idea of what that will look like, I will, as previously noted, be allowing myself a very small margin of error.