Some Preliminary Observations About the Potential Speaking Order for General Conference

Hello again, everyone! I am back, as promised earlier this afternoon with some revised observations about the potential speaking order for General Conference. First, by way of review, you can find the speaking order on those predictions as they currently stand here. Turning to details of that order, since President Nelson only conducted 1 General Conference session last April (the Sunday Morning Session), and opted to have his counselors conduct the four general sessions in October (since the Women's Session continues to be conducted by one of the three female auxiliary General Presidents), I think the scenario that applied last April will again apply for this upcoming General Conference, with his counselors conducting two sessions each, and President Nelson conducting the Sunday Morning Session.

Second, since President Eyring will likely be the concluding speaker for the Saturday Morning Session (as President Oaks was last October), I feel confident that President Oaks will conduct that session. If he does, since President Eyring led the Sustaining of Church Officers in the Saturday Afternoon Session last October (while President Oaks conducted that session) and since that was reversed last April (with President Eyring conducting the session and President Oaks leading the sustaining), last April's scenario seems likely to be repeated.

Since President Eyring conducted the Priesthood Session last April, I think it is safe to assume that President Oaks will do so this go-round. President Nelson would then conduct the Sunday Morning Session, and President Eyring will likely conduct the Sunday Afternoon Session. Barring anything unexpected, I would anticipate President Nelson speaking at least 4 times (at the beginning of the Saturday Morning Session, and the ends of the Priesthood Session and the Sunday Morning and Afternoon Sessions, but he could speak more than that, if any other major announcements are coming down the pike.

I would also assume that the entire First Presidency will speak in the Priesthood Session. And if President Eyring does speak to conclude the Saturday Morning Session, President Oaks could do so at the top of either the Sunday Morning or Sunday Afternoon Sessions. Since Easter Sunday does not coincide with General Conference Sunday this year as it did last year, I am not anticipating that the entire First Presidency will speak to conclude the Sunday Morning Session.

As for the Quorum of the Twelve, I can see a minimum of 3 possible scenarios in terms of their speaking order. Each of those scenarios has 2 members speaking in both the Saturday Morning and Sunday Afternoon Sessions, with 4 more speaking on Saturday Afternoon. The first and second scenarios feature two different members of the Quorum speaking during the Priesthood Session, with 3 others speaking during the Sunday Morning Session. The third scenario features both of the apostles from the other two scenarios speaking in the Priesthood Session (which would allow for any unexpected announcements during that session), with the remaining two apostles speaking on Sunday Morning.

Other than that, the speaking order I am anticipating isn't changed at all in any of the three scenarios. Of course, depending on which of the three scenarios I use, some alterations might be necessary. I am anticipating that the member of the Presiding Bishopric who will speak to us will be Second Counselor Bishop W. Christopher Waddell. I am likewise anticipating two members of the Presidency of the Seventy will speak to us, and I believe those two will be Elders Terence M. Vinson and Elder Carlos A. Godoy in the Saturday and Sunday Morning Sessions respectively. Elder Vinson has only given 1 talk since his call as a General Authority (in October 2013) and Elder Godoy has only spoken twice since his call as a General Authority (in October 2008 following his call as a General Authority, and in October 2014).

It has been a little difficult in recent years to know how many general officers of the Church might speak during General Conference. When President Monson reduced his speaking load in April 2015, the general officers were tapped with extra speaking opportunities to fill the time. Given that the Women's Session will not be held this go-round, I am anticipating that Sister Lisa L. Harkness, First Counselor in the Primary General Presidency, will speak in the Saturday Morning Session, that Young Men General President Stephen W. Owen will do so in the Priesthood Session, that Sharon Eubank, First Counselor in the Relief Society General Presidency, will do so in the Sunday Morning Session, and that Sunday School General President Tad R. Callister will speak during the Sunday Afternoon Session, following his likely release the previous afternoon.

It is even more difficult to know which General Authority Seventies might speak to us. After researching the matter, I have none speaking in the Saturday Morning Session, Elder Scott D. Whiting giving his second talk along with Elder Mathias Held's first in the Saturday Afternoon Session, and the first talk for Elder David P. Homer occurring during the Priesthood Session, Elders Marcus B. Nash and Anthony D. Perkins giving their third talks in the Sunday Morning and Afternoon Sessions respectively, with Elder Kyle S. McKay giving his first talk in the Sunday Afternoon Session.

I also have Elder David S. Baxter giving his third talk in the Sunday Afternoon Session after speaking previously in the April 2012 and October 2006 General Conferences. That said, I wanted to note that his biography on the Church website notes that he is currently on medical leave from his Salt Lake headquarters assignments, and unless I am mistaken, he is dealing with cancer, which, if that is still true, may prevent him from speaking during this General Conference. And in reference to these predicted speakers, I wanted to reach out to you, Scott Shipley, because I believe you had indicated that you were keeping a database on General Authority Seventies, and if I am missing anything in this paragraph about any of the GA Seventies who haven't spoken in a while (or at all) that may do so during this General Conference. Thanks in advance for the information.

In the meantime, that does it for this post. I will be posting again shortly to provide a more specific look at the three potential scenarios I see as possibilities in terms of apostolic speaking order. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly-added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

Some Additional Thoughts About the Future of the Temple Building Program of the Church

Hello again, everyone! Earlier this afternoon, I was on the Church Growth Blog, and a comment was made about the extent of President Nelson's temple-building plans which I wanted to address more fully here. The comment suggested that the recent statements by Elders Larry Y. Wilson and Quentin L. Cook might not mean what everyone seems to think they do. Another point was that, given Elder Wilson's statement (which he made in late April 2017 after President Monson made the final temple location announcement of his prophetic administration) mentioned 85 temples in 15 years, the number we would likely see within that time was closer to 66 or 190 rather than a ten-fold increase of the total number of temples. I attempted to post the following response, but when it became too lengthy, I opted to reproduce it here for more thorough discussion:

The argument that the statements of Elders Cook and Wilson may not have been indicative of as much of an increase in the number of temples may miss the mark. Elder Cook's recent statement was reportedly made in a stake conference held after the October General Conference, so none of the 19 temples announced last year "counted"  in that statement. Elder Wilson's statement, made in late April 2017 after President Monson made what would become the final set of new temple announcements during his administration, was actually 80 in 15 years, which would have been an average of 5 per year. It is almost impossible to tell which of the 19 locations was on that list, but what we do know is that President Nelson didn't plan on announcing a temple in India, and the announcement even caught those in the temple department by surprise, since it hadn't been discussed as a prospect beforehand. So at most, only 18 of the temples announced in 2018 could have been on that list.

Because no one outside of Church headquarters has seen the list of those locations, it is almost impossible to know whether any of the other 18 locations were actually on that list. Many of the locations did need a temple at some point, but for all we know, none of the 19 locations might have been on that list, or some might have been while others weren't. Another thing to consider is the fact that both Elder Wilson and Elder Cook (the former is serving as the Executive Director of the Temple Department, while the latter had served up until some point last year as the chairman of the Temple and Family History Executive Council) would be in-the-know about the details and extent of the plans because of their roles in those discussions.

So if we take Elder Cook at his word as one who has been in the know about that, there will be a tenfold increase. And since there was no qualifier added (as he did not say add a zero to the number of temples announced last year, or the number of temples currently announced), I assume that he meant add a zero to the current number, whether or not that relates to the number currently operating (161) or the grand total number (201), we are almost certainly going to see an unprecedented number of new temples announced, which is further evidenced by the fact that the Church is hiring a whole host of new employees for the temple department, for the express purpose of accommodating a surge in temple construction.

I think that the statements of both Elder Wilson and Elder Cook should be seen as equally meritorious, as both were privy to the discussions of that council. And don't forget, Elder Wilson's statement came before Elder Cook's did. So it is possible that President Monson set in motion the plan to announce 80 temples in 15 years, but was unable to act on it, and President Nelson not only opted to continue to act on that plan, but under the direction of the Lord, is expanding it in the ways apostles have described. If it were just one apostle mentioning this in one setting, I would have an easier time believing that the goal is closer to 85 or 190 temples.

But several members of the Quorum of the Twelve have spoken on this subject, and I take them at their word. I know that some of the reports of what those apostles have said have come from someone who heard it from someone who heard it from someone who asked the apostle about that. And if there's one thing I know in that regard, it is that the message can get confused or distorted the more it is passed from one person to another. But again, more than one apostle has reportedly mentioned things like this, including that President Nelson's status as the foremost building Church President will outpace and overshadow President Hinckley's previous legacy as such.

Another thing to consider here: Through his many decades in heart surgery, President Nelson has honed a sharp skill of attention to detail, getting to the heart of an issue (pun intended), and being ahead of the curve when it comes to decision-making. Perhaps President Monson had hoped to roll out some of the changes introduced in 2018 gradually, including an increase in the number of new temple announcements, but his declining health and ultimate decision in May 2017 to step back from an active role in leading the Church precluded and prevented that from happening. By contrast, President Nelson has had the health and vitality his predecessor lacked to move such priorities and the timing of them ahead of what was expected, and if he can do that, then I have no problem believing that he has set in motion and will continue to act on a plan to rapidly expand the number of temples and accelerate the process whereby they are built.

If the San Juan Puerto Rico Temple is any indication, then it will be easy for the Church to move temples announced in 2018 and beyond into construction far more swiftly than we have heretofore seen. Maybe for some temples it won't be as fast, but if most temples have construction underway within less than a year of their announcement and are on the smaller side, then it is not hard to envision the number of temples rapidly increasing beyond what anyone not privy to those conversations could expect. In fact, I have heard from a number of people around the world who are in a position to know about the temples in their nations of residence that land has been or will shortly be procured, that designs have been in the works for a while, or will be able to be drawn up and approved very quickly, and that building permits are also in the process of being acquired. Many of those temples may not only be on the smaller side, but may also more importantly be able to have a groundbreaking later this year, similarly to the Puerto Rico Temple.

Matt Martinich, who maintains the Church Growth Blog, has spoken to Church leaders or had contact with Church members who got word directly from the apostles, and has shared repeatedly on that blog that a surge is expected in temple announcements and construction. President Nelson stated in late October (as verified by the official Newsroom): "If you think this year [2018] was exciting, wait until next year, and the next year, and the next. Eat your vitamin pills. Get your rest. It's going to be exciting." I cannot say he was talking about temple construction, but given that that comment was made in an interview following the dedication of the Concepcion Chile Temple, he may have been talking about a whole host of things, and not just temple construction. But I also can't say he wasn't talking about temple construction at all.

President Nelson has done more in the first year of his prophetic administration than some Church Presidents of the past have done in twice or quadruple that amount of time, including setting a new record for the most temples announced in the first year of a prophet's administration. But more than that, 17 of the 19 locations had a specific city identified, so that adds to the record. New temple announcements are almost sure to continue, and things I have shared here indicate to me very strongly that a vast number of new temples are on the horizon for the years ahead, which will likewise set new records. On this blog, Elder Cook's statement was "take the current number, and add a zero to it." I don't think he was referring to the number of currently-announced temples or the number of those announced this year, or that would have been explicit in his statement.

As verified by numerous sources (including those endorsed by the Church), several apostles have directly addressed President Nelson's love for temples, and his desire to bring them closer to the people of the Church around the world who have to sacrifice so much to get to the nearest temple once. That said, it is also true that unless and until President Nelson spells out his plans through an official announcement or over the pulpit, we do have to rely almost solely on the statement of apostles, whether heard personally or through someone else. But 19 new temples in the first year of any prophet's administration is unheard of, and I have not seen anything anywhere that would indicate a slowing of new temples being announced. If anything, we are likely to see more temples like San Juan Puerto Rico, which can have approval granted, an artist's rendering released, and a groundbreaking held within 6-12 months following their announcements.

I am in the happy position of being able to share with you all that many of the temples announced last year have already had a site procured, preliminary plans drawn up and in various stages of approval, and are anticipated, like the San Juan temple, to have a groundbreaking later this year or in 2020. I have been able to find information that verifies this. So there will be a surge in the future, especially if temples announced this year and in the years following are planned to be on the smaller side, for which securing land and approval is much easier than it has been for other temples.

For what it's worth, these are the thoughts I had in response to the comment on the Church Growth Blog that the statement may have been misunderstood. I hope what I have shared here is helpful to all who read these observations. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly-added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

Updated Specific Estimates for Known Temple Events

Hello again, everyone! Just a few moments ago, I finally finished the revision process for my more specific estimates for known temple events. The updates follow below. So as not to disturb the flow of that information, I will end here and now as I always do. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly-added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

2019:

Saturday January 26: Groundbreaking for the Bangkok Thailand Temple (confirmed)

Note: On November 27, 2018, just 8 days following the afore-mentioned announcement of the groundbreaking information for the Urdaneta Philippines Temple, the First Presidency also announced that the groundbreaking for this temple would be held 10 days after that one. Elder David F. Evans, who serves as President of the Asia Area, will preside at this event, which is set to be held at 10:00 AM Bangkok time (which is 8:00 PM on Friday January 26 MST). Since a general completion estimate of 3-4 years has been given for the construction of this temple, I have felt a more specific but still general completion estimate of mid-2022 would be appropriate.

Sunday March 10-Tuesday March 12: Dedication of the Rome Italy Temple (162^nd operating temple; confirmed)

Note: The First Presidency announced the amended dedication dates for this temple on November 8, 2018. Given that this dedication will now be held over three days rather than the previously-announced 8-day period, there may be only 2-3 of our 15 apostles participating in this event. That said, it would not surprise me in any way if this dedication was either the start or conclusion of another leg of President Nelson’s ongoing Global Ministry Tour.

Saturday & Sunday April 6 & 7: 189^th General Conference

Note: Because 19 temples were announced in 2018 (which may have been President Nelson’s way of starting slowly), and because one of his major focuses during his first year as Church President has been highlighting the importance of temples, I’m sure we will see several new temples announced during this General Conference.

Sunday April 14: Dedication of the Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Temple (163^rd operating temple; confirmed)

Note: In view of the facts that the dedication of this temple will occur after the April General Conference, and that following the April 2018 General Conference, President Nelson began his Global Ministry Tour, I could see President Nelson doing another leg of his tour in conjunction with this temple’s dedication, whether that tour starts or ends with this dedication, or whether this dedication is held sometime in the mid-point of that tour.

April or May: Groundbreaking for the Pocatello Idaho Temple

Note: In January 2019, many sources I had available noted that this temple would have a groundbreaking in the spring. That could occur at some point after General Conference (and thus be held before the already-scheduled groundbreaking for the San Juan Temple), or it could occur in May, either on the same day as that for the San Juan temple, or at any other time during the month. Although an apostle (particularly any with ties to Pocatello) could preside at this groundbreaking when it occurs, or that could be done by any of the 3 members of the Idaho Area Presidency (Elders Wilford W. Andersen, S. Gifford Nielsen, or Brian K. Taylor).

Saturday May 4: Groundbreaking for the San Juan Puerto Rico Temple

Note: On January 12, 2019, the First Presidency released the artist’s rendering for this temple (which was announced in October 2018). 5 days later (on January 17), the groundbreaking for this temple was announced to occur on this day in May. Elder Walter F. Gonzalez, president of the Church’s Caribbean Area, will preside at that ceremony.

Sunday May 5: Private rededication of the Memphis Tennessee Temple (confirmed)

Note: On January 16, 2019, the First Presidency announced the private rededication of this temple would take place in a single session on this date, that Elder Jeffrey R. Holland would preside at the rededication, and that no open house or youth devotional would be held prior to this event.

Sunday May 19: Private rededication of the Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple (confirmed)

Note: On January 16, 2019, the private rededication for the Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple was announced. President Henry B. Eyring will preside at the single-session rededication, which will not be preceded by an open house or youth devotional.

Sunday June 2: Dedication of the Fortaleza Brazil Temple (165^th operating temple; confirmed)

Note: On January 10, 2018, the First Presidency announced this temple’s dedication. In an unusual (but not unexpected) move, that dedication has been scheduled to occur two weeks prior to the rededication of the Oakland California Temple. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first time a dedication has been set to occur prior to a rededication which has previously been announced. Usually, a temple’s rededication has been set to occur prior to a previously-announced temple dedication. As noted on other temples, President Nelson could preside at this event himself, or he could delegate one of his counselors or a senior member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles to do so.

Sunday June 16: Rededication of the Oakland California Temple (confirmed)

Note: This temple’s rededication was announced on December 18, 2018. As noted above, the dedication of the Fortaleza Brazil Temple, announced almost a month later, has been set to occur before this temple’s rededication.

August: Private rededications for the Raleigh North Carolina and Baton Rouge Louisiana Temples

Note: Given the unexpected announcement of the private rededications for the Memphis Tennessee and Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temples (and the fact that both will be operating again before the General Authorities take their annual July recess), it is not hard to believe that both of these temples, for which their renovation processes seem to be on track, could have a rededication within the month following that recess.

Sunday September 1: Dedication of the Port-au-Prince Haiti Temple (165^th operating temple; confirmed)

Note: On November 14, 2018, the First Presidency announced the open house and dedication information for this temple. Then, on January 18, 2019, the dedication was pushed back to this date in view of all that still needed to be done on the construction process.

Mid-to-late September: Dedication of the Durban South Africa Temple (166^th operating temple)

Note: If the construction of the Durban South Africa Temple continues on schedule, then it is not hard to believe that a dedication for it could occur before General Conference. And given the precedent set earlier this year relating to the Memphis Tennessee and Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temples (that both are going to have a one-session private rededication), it is not hard to believe that the Raleigh Temple could easily have a rededication at this point.

Saturday & Sunday October 5 & 6: 189^th Semiannual General Conference:

Note: Depending on what is done by this time to clear the existing backlog of announced temples, it seems more likely than not that several new temples will be announced during this weekend.

Mid-to-late October: Rededication of the Frankfurt Germany Temple

Mid-November: Dedication of the Lisbon Portugal Temple (167^th operating temple)

December: Dedication of the Arequipa Peru Temple (168^th operating temple)

Note: The Arequipa temple has progressed swiftly. Given the earlier timing that has been announced or is anticipated for the private rededications of Hinckley-era temples this year, that fact, combined with the fact that construction may be ahead of schedule, has me confident enough to conjecture that this temple could likely be dedicated during the last month of this year. But I could also see the Church waiting to dedicate this temple until after Christmas 2019 and New Year 2020.

Final note on 2019: Given what I have heard about 2019, it seems more likely than not that several temples will have a groundbreaking at some point during that year. As noted above, the groundbreakings have been scheduled for the Bangkok Thailand and San Juan Puerto Rico Temples, while the groundbreaking for the Pocatello Idaho is anticipated to occur within the second quarter of 2019. I am also anticipating that a groundbreaking for the Saratoga Springs Utah (and perhaps also) Brasilia Brazil Temples will be held in mid-2019. Additionally, based on what I know at the present time, I am keeping my eyes open for information on the Nairobi Kenya, Lima Peru Los Olivos, Harare Zimbabwe, and Greater Manila Philippines Temples, most (if not all) of which could have a groundbreaking by the end of 2019. But given the fact that we unexpectedly saw a groundbreaking set for the San Juan temple, then that opens the prospect that other temples announced by President Nelson in 2018 could also have a groundbreaking if their size expedites the approval process.

2020:

Mid-February: Rededication of the Asuncion Paraguay Temple

Saturday & Sunday April 4 & 5: 190^th Annual General Conference

Note: Barring anything unexpected, I would anticipate several new temples being announced during this weekend.

Mid-April: Dedication of the Rio de Janeiro Brazil Temple (169^th operating temple)

Mid-to-late May: Rededication of the Tokyo Japan Temple

June or early-to-mid August: Dedication of the Winnipeg Manitoba Temple (170^th operating temple)

Saturday & Sunday October 3 & 4: 190^th Semiannual General Conference

Note: Temple announcements are always possible, so it is not hard to believe that a few could be announced during this General Conference.

Mid-October: Rededication of the Mesa Arizona Temple

Mid-November: Dedication of the Abidjan Ivory Coast Temple (171^st operating temple)

Note: At the groundbreaking for this temple (which occurred on November 8, 2018), Elder Neil L. Andersen, who presided at this event and gave his remarks in French, noted that construction of the temple was anticipated to take around two years. For that reason, I am moving my previous estimate for this temple’s dedication up to this point.

Mid-December: Rededication of the Washington DC Temple

Final note on 2020: Some of the announced temples that will have a groundbreaking between now and the end of 2019 could potentially be dedicated during this year. And several other announced temples (I currently have 7 on my radar) could have a groundbreaking during 2020 as well.

2021:

Saturday & Sunday April 3 & 4: 191^st Annual General Conference

Note: Depending on what happens between now (early December 2018) and the dates for this General Conference, I could easily see several new temples announced.

Mid-to-late April: Dedication of the Urdaneta Philippines Temple (172^nd operating temple)

Early-to-mid June: Rededication of the Hamilton New Zealand Temple

Mid-August: Dedication of the San Juan Puerto Rico Temple (173^rd operating temple)

Saturday & Sunday October 2 & 3: 191^st Semiannual General Conference

Note: I am hoping that by the time this particular General Conference weekend rolls around, the temple construction program of the Church will have progressed to the point where some temples will continue to be announced every six months.

Final note on 2021: If, as anticipated, several more temples are announced in 2019 and 2020, and any which have not yet had a groundbreaking have that occur within that same time period, that in turn will multiply the number of known temple events which will likely occur in 2021 and the years beyond. As more is learned about future temple renovations, that will also have an impact on the number of future events.

2022:

Saturday & Sunday April 2 & 3: 192^nd Annual General Conference

Note: Since the face of the Church’s temple construction program will likely look entirely different by this time, I would anticipate the announcement of several new temples.

Mid-August: Dedication of the Bangkok Thailand Temple (173^rd operating temple)

Note: Because this temple is significantly larger than temples which have been built in recent years, delays in that construction process are more likely than not. It is also worth noting that the official number for this temple is almost certain to change as other temples have a groundbreaking and construction and are potentially completed before this one is.

Saturday & Sunday October 1 & 2: 192^nd Semiannual General Conference

Note:  As noted above (for the 2022 April General Conference), by this time, it is more likely than not that the face of the Church’s temple construction program will be looking entirely different. With that in mind, it seems more likely than not that other temples could be announced during this General Conference.

Mid-to-late November: Dedication of the Pocatello Idaho Temple (174^th operating temple)

Final note: As noted a few different times here, within the 3.95 years or so between now and the end of 2022, the face of the Church’s temple construction program will likely look very different. We currently have a Church President who has clearly prioritized bringing the temples to the people, and the fact that he announced 19 new temples within his first year as such verifies that beyond doubt. I also am equally certain he will do all he can to clear the existing backlog of announced temples. With that in mind, there will likely be many more temple events to add to this list in the future. I am committed to bringing updates in that regard to you all as I receive them.