Stokes Sounds Off: Initial Predictions for the April 2022 General Conference

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Thursday, October 14, 2021

Initial Predictions for the April 2022 General Conference

Hello again, everyone! Given the fact that no breaking Church news or temple deelopments have been shared thus far this week.I was able to spend a good chunk of time yesterday getting the initial version of my predictions for the April 2022 General Conference. Those predictions include 3 separate segments: the potential speaker lineup, a list of changes in general Church leadership (which also includes my estimates for the numbers that may be featured in the 2021 Statistical Report, and my preliminary list of locations in which a temple seems most likely to be announced.

A bit of context might be helpful. On the speaker lineup, I have used a similar (if not identical) template for each featured speaker. In view of the fact that so many GA Seventies spoke during the October 2021 General Conference, it appears more likely than not that the April 2022 General Conference will follow a similar format, but with Presidents Oaks and Eyring switching speaker slots this time around. 

It seems likely that 3 apostles each will speak Saturday Morning,Saturday Afternoon, and Sunday Morning, with 2 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speaking in the final session, and the one remaining apostle will speak Saturday Evening. 

It also seems likely to me that, with the Church having shortened the amount of time alloted for the Sustaining of Church Officers, and for the duration of all talkgs given by our apostles, that there will be ample room for one member of the Presidency of the Seventy (Kearon), one Presiding Bishopric member (Causse), and 5 General Officers of the Church.

Additionally, in view of the fact that 15 current GA Seventies spoke earlier this month, the adjusted talk lengths for all apostles will leave room for about that same number of GA Seventies. There is only one current GA Seventy (Elder Adeyinka A. Ojediran) who was sustained in April 2020 but has not yet spoken in General Conference, All GA Seventies called in April of this year spoke for the first time in General Conference earlier this month.

As a result, in addition to Elder Ojediran, my predictions for other GA Seventy speakers does not take Elder Baxter into consideration, since he is still reportedly on medical leave. But the next name on that list of when each current GA Seventy last spoke to us is Elder Randy D. Funk, who gave his first address as a GA Seventy during the Priesthood Session in October 2013. 

I went down through the list, and with the way the speaker predictions apeear to be set up going forward, I was able to plan out a scenario that would see every GA Seventy listed between Elder Funk and Elder Hugo Montoya (who gave his first address during the Saturday Afternoon Session of the October 2015 General Conference).

The only notes I have on the changes in general Church leadership are that new GA Seventies are likely to be sustained, with area seventy releases and sustainings conducted in advance, and the release of the Relief Society General Presidency and the calling of new leaders for that organization. The numbers showing up in my projected version of the data likely to be included in the 2021 Statistical Report for the Church are based on both estimates and somewhat elaborate algorithms that are hard to explain.

And with the final document showing the list of locations in which a temple seems most likely to be announced, I eliminated all candidates that had been announced in October. I will be looking to add any locations to the list based on research verifying those choices, or based on any recommendations from you, my readers, who would like to submit feedback for consideration here. With those explanations handled, I am pleased to declare the commenting period for these predictions is now open.

The commenting period will remain in effect until 10:00 PM on Friday April 1, which will then give me a few hours to make any adjustments before General Conference weekend gets underway with the first session on Saturday April 2 at 10:00 AM. I look forward to any feedback any of you might offer on what I've put together. I also continue to monitor all major Church news and temple developments and will bring you all word here of the latest as I can once I become aware of that information.

That does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

21 comments:

  1. Hello again, everyone! I received word from Google Docs (responding to a request from Nancy Hymas, who, unless I am mistaken, has commented here in the past). The request noted that Nancy was requesting permission to view my list of locations for which a temple might be announced in April 2022. In creating the new document for the next General Conference, I had forgotten to enable that permission. This comment is to advise anyone who has faced similar accessibility issues with any of these documents that the problem has been fixed insofar as I can tell on my end. So clicking on the link in the post above will now direct those clicking on that to the correct document. My thanks once again to you all.

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  2. Hi James,

    You can remove Heber Valley Ut from your potential temple list. (I'm sure just an oversight).

    I have been thinking more about some difficult to travel from locations and I keep going back to Tasmania island of Australia.

    I also keep wondering why Mongolia hasn't been announced yet.

    Just a few thoughts. Everyone wishes for a temple closer to them, me included, but some areas continue to still have those once in a lifetime journeys to go to the temple due to travel distance, cost, and low average local wages. They certainly need a closer temple before those of us that feel inconvenienced by 3 hr freeway travel.

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    Replies
    1. That was an oversight on my part, Kenny. Thank you for catching that. It appears when I put that together, I had taken the other temples that were announced off of my list, but that I might have been interrupted when I got to the Utah Area. Thanks for catching that.

      In regards to your comment about Mongolia, I took a look back at all of the previous posts from the Church Growth Blog about the top ten nations list. It appears he has only been doing those lists since September of 2013.

      Additionally, it appears as though Mongolia only joined the top ten nations list in October 2018 (at which point, in view of the temples announced in other nations, it was ranked eighth. In the three years since then, assuming the membership data I have on Mongolia is the latest available, since it first made the list in October 2018, it has gone from its' previous ranking (eighth) to being much higher on the list (now second).

      There seems to be a very distinct method to President Nelson announcing temples in nations on the top ten list. Given that Mongolia has moved up six spots in 3 years, hopefully, a Mongolian temple will be announced within the next 1-3 conferences. My personal feeling is that that nation will get its' temple in April of next year. I say that because Uganda (which appears to rank ahead of Mongolia) is a neighboring nation to Kenya, so the Nairobi Kenya Temple now being under construction makes Uganda less of a priority for the time being.

      Those are just my personal feelings. For contextual purposes, since Matt posted his last top ten list (in November of last year), temples have been announced in Mozambique, Liberia, and Madagascar, which had been between Uganda at number 1 and Mogolia at number 5.

      That reinforces my feeling that Mongolia will be the next nation removed from that list in April of next year. For your further perusal, and for anyone else interested, I have made my file with the latest membership numbers in the top nations available to anyone visiting the following link:

      https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Rf3L0MwF_VfFsq7Rv0tdqWa8-_8lkcR4OKk4m5YTsx0/edit?usp=sharing

      Just a slight disclaimer here: Since Matt has not mentioned anything further about the Church making this year's statistical updates by nation available, I am assuming that the nations rank where they are based on the latest numbers available, which appear to be from year-end 2020. It's possible that, if the Church can update their statistics, it could verify a different ranking for the nations on my document.

      Those are just my own thoughts, based on what you noted. Thanks for taking time to weigh in here, Kenny. I always appreciate hearing from you.

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    2. Outlier Stakes as of 11 October 2021 = 173
      (>200 miles to a temple) or (>320 kilometers)
      173/3490= 4.96% of Stakes are Outliers
      South America 93
      Brazil 33 /280= 12% Boa Vista, Macapa, Santarem, São Luis, São Luis East, Teresina Horto, Teresina, Teresina Planalto, Imperatriz, Juazeiro do Norte, Porto Velho, Petrolina, Palmas North, Palmas, Rio Branco, (Vitoria da) Conquista, Cuiaba, Cuiaba Industriario, Rio Verde, Uberlandia, Uberaba, Campo Grande, Campo Grande Monte Libano, São Jose do Rio Preto, Aracatuba, Birigui, Maringa, Cascavel, Chapeco, Santo Angelo, Uruguaiana, Alegrete, Livramento.
      Venezuela 18 /34= 53% Punto Fijo, Coro, Maracaibo, Maracaibo West, Maracaibo Centro, Maracaibo South, San Francisco, Cabimas, Ciudad Ojeda, Merida, Barinas, San Cristobal Pirineos, Porlamar, Guayana, El Tigre, Maturin, Ciudad Bolivar, San Felix.
      Argentina 14 /78= 18% Santiago del Estero, La Rioja, Santa Fe North, Santa Fe, Parana, Zapala, Neuquen, Neuquen West, General Roca, Bariloche, Trelew North, Trelew South, Comodoro Rivadavia, Tierra del Fuego.
      Peru 10 /112= 9% Paita, Piura Miraflores, Piura Central, Piura Castilla, Iquitos Punchana, Iquitos, Iquitos Nueve de Octubre, Tarapoto, Pucallpa, Cusco Inti Raymi.
      Chile 10 /74= 13% Iquique, Copiapo, La Serena, Coquimbo, Valdivia, Valdivia Calle Calle, Osorno Rahue, Osorno, Puerto Montt, Punta Arenas.
      Uruguay 5 /18= 28% Artigas, Rivera, Salto, Tacuarembo, Melo.
      Bolivia 2 /33= 6% Tarija Tabladita, Tarija.
      Colombia 1 /30= 3% Cucuta

      Africa 20
      South Africa 4 /17= 23% Bloemfontein, Mdantsane, East London, Port Elizabeth.
      Uganda 3 /3= 100% Jinja, Kampala North, Kampala South.
      Nigeria 3 /62= 5% Abuja Kubwa, Abuja Wuse, Abuja Lugbe.
      Mozambique 3 /5= 60% Nampula, Matola, Maputo.
      Zimbabwe 2 Nkulumane, Bulawayo.
      Republic of the Congo 1 Pointe-Noire
      Angola 1 Luanda
      Zambia 1 Lusaka
      Côte d’Ivoire 1 Daloa
      Canary Islands 1 (Spain) Las Palmas

      Europe 19
      Spain 7 /15= 47% Lleida, Barcelona, Hospitalet, Elche, Cartagena, Granada, Cadiz.
      Italy 4 /10= 40% Puglia, Palermo, Venice, Verona.
      France 3 Nice, Toulouse, Bordeaux.
      Scotland 1 Aberdeen
      Portugal 1 A Coruna
      Albania 1 Tirana
      Russia 1 Saratov
      Ukraine 1 Kharkiv

      Asia 17
      Japan 6 /25= 24% Kyoto, Osaka North, Osaka,
      Osaka Sakai, Kobe, Okayama.
      India 3 New Delhi, Hyderabad, Rajahmundry.
      Mongolia 2 Ulaanbaatar East, Ulaanbaatar West.
      Indonesia 2 Jakarta, Surakarta.
      Philippines 1 Puerto Princesa
      Thailand 1 Ubon
      Papua New Guinea 1 Daru
      Bahrain 1 Manama

      Oceania 12
      New Zealand 5 /30= 17% Dunedin, Christchurch, Wellington, Porirua, Upper Hutt.
      Marshall Islands 2 Kwajalein, Majuro.
      Tasmania Australia 2 Devonport, Hobart.
      New Caledonia 1 Noumea
      Pohnpei Micronesia 1 Panasang
      Tahiti French Polynesia 1 Faaa Takaroa

      North America 12
      Canada 3 Prince George, Grande Prairie, Sudbury.
      Alaska 3 Fairbanks, North Pole, Juneau.
      Mexico 2 Delicias, Cabo San Lucas.
      Kansas 1 Garden City
      Maine 1 Bangor
      Jamaica 1 Kingston
      Trinidad and Tobago 1 Port of Spain

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    3. Temples April 2022 more likely30points.14outlier
      Venezuela Maracaibo 103/ Barcelona 74/
      San Cristobal 36
      Brazil Santa Maria 70/ Ribeirao Preto 57/
      Teresina 30/ Campo Grande 27/ Passo Fundo 23
      Goiania 21/ Palmas 20/ São Luis 20/
      Londrina 17/ Juazeiro do Norte 17/ Cuiaba 17
      Uruguay Tacuarembo 68/ Rivera 56
      Mexico Mexico City S 64/ Chihuahua 19
      Japan Osaka 60
      Peru Chiclayo 57/ Piura 34/ Iquitos 30/ Tacna 22/
      Cusco 14
      Utah Lehi 54/ Spanish Fork 32/ Bluffdale.H.R to 30
      Arizona Mesa E 52/ Glendale 36/ Mesa N 32
      Chile Osorno 49/ La Serena 27/
      Punta Arenas 17
      France Toulouse 38/ Bordeaux 18
      Argentina Neuquen 37/ Rosario 35/ Santa Fe 34/
      Tucuman 22/ Trelew 20/ Mar del Plata 20
      New Zealand Wellington 37
      Colombia Bucaramanga 36/ Cucuta 33
      Spain Barcelona 35/ Granada 32/ Murcia 28/
      Elche 25/ Cadiz 18/ Malaga 18
      Nigeria Abuja 30
      Italy Milan 30/ Venice 19
      Bolivia Tarija 21
      Zimbabwe Bulawayo 21
      Mozambique Maputo 20
      Alaska Fairbanks 20
      Canada Prince George 17
      Tasmania Hobart 17
      Portugal Porto 16
      Paraguay Ciudad del Este 15
      “1sts” (15 points)
      Uganda Kampala 30
      Mongolia Ulaanbaatar 20
      Scotland Glasgow 17/ Edinburgh 14
      Marshall Islands 17/ Majuro 10/ Khwajalein 10
      Indonesia 17/ Jakarta 10/ Surakarta 10
      Kansas Wichita 16

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    4. Hello, Steven Cuff. I apologize for my delayed acknowledgement of your most recent comments, which I first read earlier today. Right off the bat, as I mentioned in reply to Kenny further up in the comment threads of this post, a lot of the newer locations on my list were first added to it prior to the October 2021 General Conference based on your feedback, so I'm hoping that will be the case here.

      The one other thing I wanted to mention is that, although I vaguely recall you explaining the factors you used in your list of these locations, the specifics are eluding me for the time being. So I'd like to make a request of you, if I may. In response to this reply, could you explain in more detail the apparent shorthand you've used, what parameters you have considered for each location, and whether or not your lists differentiate in terms of the likely timing within which the location in each section might be announced.

      If you can post that explanation again, then with your permission, what I might do going forward on this blog is to make a verbatim copy of your comment that I'll keep among my files, and I will then have the information about that to pass along going forward as you continue to weigh in here. Does that seem like something you'd be willing to do, and something you'd be willing to let me do again on your behalf when it comes to your comments in the future? Hopefully that makes sense. I would be happy to clarify what I'm asking about if need be. In any case, Steven Cuff, thanks for commenting here. As I mentioned at the beginning of this response to you, the information you provided in resposne to my October 2021 predictions led to the expansion of my list just before General Conference, and quite a few of those you had mentioned that were not on my list prior to your comment were among those announced earlier this month. So I appreciate your thoroughness, attention to detail, and any more specifics you might be able to provide on your lists. Thanks.

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    5. 103 13.4.13 Maracaibo (Example explained, left to right)
      I get a total of points by summing: (103)
      13 outlier stakes x 6 points = 78.
      4 hub stakes x 3 points = 12.
      13 total stakes x 1 point = 13.

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    6. Thanks for detailing that. Would I be correct in assuming that the higher the sum of that number, the more likely each temple prospect is? And what would that indicate about how soon each temple might be announced? Do your figures allow for imminent likelihood? Just want to make sure I'm interpreting that correctly. What I might do is write down the information about your comment that started this subthread, then share that link in future posts for any who are curious. Would that be all right with you? Thanks again, Steven.

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    7. Precisely, the higher the number, the higher the likelihood of an announcement.
      By all means, share.

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    8. Steven, sorry about my delayed response. Thanks for confirming that. That will help me (and hopefully others) to utilize your information in assessing prospective temple locations. I appreciate you taking time to clarify this. Thanks again for sharing your thoughts here.

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    9. @Steven, Not to seem like a grammar police, sorry. But the A Coruña Spain Stake is actually located in the Autonomous Community of Galicia, which is itself an integral Region of the Kingdom of Spain. Not a part of the Northern Coordinating Region of the Portuguese Republic. Again sorry for the correction. You may have meant the Oporto Portugal Stake over 200 miles from Lisbon Portugal Temple as a 2nd location?

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  3. Hello again, everyone! The Church News has shared 2 new articles this morning. The first one summarizes an article authored by Elder Ronald A. Rasband of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. The Church News update linked to that article, in which the apostle shared insights on the vital role of religion in society today and suggested that the G20 political summit, set to be held later this year or early next year, should include religious leaders concerned about their rights as leaders of faith-based organizations since some of those discussions pertain to and directly impact faith-based organizations.

    Here are the links to the Church News summary in general and the op-ed penned by Elder Rasband:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-10-15/elder-rasband-column-the-hill-religious-freedom-229637

    https://thehill.com/opinion/international/576575-religion-and-the-g-20-with-faith-we-can-move-mountains

    I was very impressed with Elder Rasband's article, and am pleased to formally endorse that article as something I hope will impact you all in the same way that it did for me.

    The second Church News report shares the latest edition of the chart of General Authorities and General Officers of the Church in an available PDF format:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/callings/2021-10-15/general-authorities-chart-download-october-2021-general-conference-229611

    I am posting this comment from my phone, so I'm not sure at the moment how the desktop version differs from the mobile version, but from my mobile device, it shows the members of the Presidency of the Seventy and the members of the Presiding Bishopric on the same row, and it also shows the general officers of the Church in the same rows on the right side that shows the rows of the General Authority Seventies in the rows on the left side.

    Having noted that, I remain cautiously optimistic that at least one new major temple update will be reported at some point today or tomorrow. In the meantime, my thanks once again to you all.

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    1. I just now checked the desktop version of the chart showing the general leadership of the Church, and it has an identical layout to the mobile version I mentioned earlier. It appears that was done to eliminate previously-empty white space on the chart. My thanks once again to you all.

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    2. Hello again, everyone! Following the Newsroom's report on how the governor of Arizona toured the Mesa Arizona Temple, the Church News provided coverage on that same development. Here are those two reports:

      https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/arizona-governor-visits-mesa-arizona-temple

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-10-15/governor-arizona-mesa-temple-elder-rasband-229672

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2021-10-15/familysearch-discovery-search-experience-historical-records-ancestor-page-229558

      And the latest edition of "This Week on Social" was also published:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2021-10-15/social-media-elder-uchtdorf-fred-astaire-doubt-criticism-229689

      Those featured this week include: Elder Dieter F. Uchtdorf of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles and Sister Reyna I. Aburto, Second Counselor in the Relief Society General Presidency (from both of whom 2 posts were featured); in addition to content otherwise provided in single posts from Acting President M. Russell Ballard and Ronald A. Rasband and Dale G. Renlund of the Quorum of the Twele Apostles; Relief Society General President Sister Jean B. Bingham; Sister Amy A. Wright, Second Counselor in the Primary General Presidency; Brother Jan E. Newman, Second Counselor in the Sunday School General Presidency; and Young Men General President Steven J. Lund. My thanks once again to you all.

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    3. And LDS Living reports that the Church has reached an agreement to livestream the weekly "Music and the Spoken Word" broadcast in the United Kingdom:

      https://www.ldsliving.com/london-to-begin-weekly-broadcast-of-music-and-the-spoken-word/s/10093

      My thanks once again to you all.

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    4. On this Saturday, the Church News has provided the following additional updates:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/callings/2021-10-16/mission-president-companion-ohio-cincinnati-mcguire-229470

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2021-10-16/sarah-jane-weaver-a-drop-of-good-journey-of-a-peach-229490

      My thanks once again to you all.

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    5. Here are several Church News updates published in the last 18 hours:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/callings/2021-10-17/learn-about-these-21-recently-reorganized-stakes-around-the-world-229649

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-10-17/week-review-elder-rasband-op-ed-mesa-arizona-temple-ga-chart-229723

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-10-17/russell-nelson-dieter-uchtdorf-devotional-oklahoma-kansas-native-americans-229800

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-10-17/elder-holland-st-george-missionaries-obedience-power-authority-229747


      And the Newsroom has covered the donation to the Native American Museum as well:

      My thanks once again to you all.

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  4. James, one thought about church membership growth: as the church gains in areas where there are still high rates of birth, perhaps we will see significant growth in children growing up in the church.

    This might take a year or two to see the numbers, but it might be worth keeping an eye on the numbers. It might also not show up in the overall numbers if the united states continues to trend toward fewer and fewer children per couple.

    Obviously this doesnt account for new areas or doors opening up in places that have traditionally seen little growth (for whatever reasons), and an array of other factors and possibilities.

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    1. Danny, thanks for weighing in with your thoughts here on Church membership growth. I believe your assesswent is correct. I know that in some places (China springs to mind), there have previously been limits on the number of children allowed, while in other parts of the world, there may be some locations that actually encourage and/or provide extra incentives for parents to have more children.

      I also know that in the United States, there seems to be more of a trend towards young adults being less inclined to get married and/or have children, or those who only decide to have a certain number of children.

      Within my own extended family (counting one of my brothers-in-law who, along with his wife, are not active in the Church, while their children attend weekly, another of my brothers-in-law who had been inactive in the Church until the last few years and has not yet had the opportunity to get married, and my only brother and his wife, who have shared custody of his daughter with her birth mother and who, along with their son, are not active in the Church at all), whose situations are likely similar to that of many other families around and within the worldwide Church.

      So when it comes to the statistical estimates of factors I provide for each April General Conference, things like the number of misions, temples, stakes and districts (including the total number of new congregations formed per annum) are easier to estimate, while other elements (the total number of Church members, increase in children of record, convert baptisms, and full-time and Church service missionaries are a lot harder to estimate accurately.

      In fact, in recent years for a variety of reasons, the algorithms or equations I ran to arrive at the projected numbers for those less-predictable fields of data usually showed I had grossly overestimated that data. So starting with the upcoming General Conference, I have tried to adjust those calculations, and that also applies to analyzing my accuracy in predicting that data. But I do agree with what you said completely. Thanks again for weighing in on this, Danny. I always appreciate hearing from you!

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  5. Hi! I'm new in this thing of predicting temples; I'm from Guatemala and I found out interesting that on your list you predicted that they could announce a new temple in Villa Nueva or Mixco! I'd love to see that! I live in Mazatenango and my guess was that the next temple in Guatemala would be in Retahuleu, considering that our stake is getting close to be divided and we are close to Retahuleu. I also would love to see a new temple in Rosario, Argentina but I may be bias because I served my mission there and they really want it! there are a poster in the stake center saying: What am I doing to make possible a temple in Rosario?

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    1. A. J. Merlos, first of all, thank you for taking time to comment. I hope you enjoy what you're reading here and decide to continue to follow updates and comments. I already have a Central American Church member contact, who has been filling me in on the latest updates with the Central American temples, but I never object to having more than one source for relevant information.

      My other source advised me that, with the Greater Guatemala City Guatemala Temple also being built in Guatemala City proper, Mixco and Villa Nueva were the two most likely candidates for the next Central American temple. Thanks for the insights on Retalhuelu's need for a temple. I will go ahead and add that city to my list.

      I think that Rosario could be one of the next (if not the very next) Argentine cities to have a temple announced. That is especially true since a groundbreaking has been set for the Bahia Blanca Argentina Temple. Since that newest Argentine temple will be out of the current queue of announced temples shortly after General Conference, it wouldn't shock me to see the next temple for that nation sooner rather than later.

      President Nelson certainly has set an impressive agenda in terms of temple construction, and I look forward to seeing what might be next. I love that, in his ministry, he has repeatedly acknowledged that it is easier for the Church to build a temple than it is to build a people ready for the temple. I also understand that the Saints in Bahia Blanca had been petitioning Church headquarters for a temple for a couple of years before one was announced, so if that can be the case for Rosario as well, we might see such an announcement sooner rather than later. Thanks again for weighing in here, A. J. I appreciate hearing from you.

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