Hello again, everyone! Although the Church has not released any updates today on the reopening process for temples, the lack of new information there allowed me to focus more fully today on updating several of my files relating to General Conference.As I reported exactly one week ago, tthe Church released the transcripts for the October 2021 General Conference.
Based on the release of that information, I was able to complete my analysis of that conference. As a reminder, I have links to my predictions for the speaker lineup, the anticipated changes in general Church leadership, and the most likely locations in which a temple could be announced.
I had previously noted I would give myself a slightly higher margin of error than I usually do, since this was the first General Conference held with a Saturday Evening sesion instead of a Priesthood or Women's Session. That being said, I wanted to share how scoring my predictions worked this time around.
As I mentioned, I gave myself a slightly higher margin of error with these predictions. With that in mind, let me now shed light on what the scoring signifies. For every possible element of my predictions, I use a 3-point scale. In terms of the speaking order, I gave myself 3 points if I had the correct individual in the correct position in the session in which they spoke.
So for the Saturday Morning, Sunday Morning, and Sunday Afternoon Sessions, 3 points each were awarded by correctly predicting that President Nelson would speak in those slots during that session. 2 points were awarded if I had the correct individual in the right session, but if they spoke in a different slot than I had projected.
An example of that would be President Eyring in the Satruday Evening Session, since he was the last speaker, or the 3 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles who spoke during the Saturday Morning Session, but did so in a different order. I had Christofferson first, then Soares, then Holland, but it was Holland, Soares, and Christofferson).
Although I was correct about Elder Soares being the second ajpostle, his slot earned me 2 points because I did not have him in the right slot within that session. 1 point was awarded if I correctly predicted a speaker at all, but had them in the wrong slot and in the wrong session. Examples of that from the Sunday Afternoon Session are Elders Sean Douglas and Michael A. Dunn.
I had predicted they would speak in that order in the Saturday Mroning Session, but they did so in the reverse order in the Sunday Afternoon Session, as a result of which I gave myself a score of 1 for each of them. For changes in Church leadership, I gave myself a 3-point score for every GA Seventy I correctly predicted would be granted emeritus status, and 3 points each for the fact that current area seventies have been released while a couple of new ones were sustained.
That brings us to the new temples. I had the exact locations on my list for the newest temples in the Philippines, Liberia, Mexico, Bolivia, Texas, and Utah, each of those were 3 points apiece. Although I had a second Rexburg temple correct, I didn't predict it would be tn the northern area of that city, so it was 2 points, as were the temples announced in Taiwan, the DR Congo, Chile and Wyoming. I correctly surmised that a new Brazilian temple would be built, but Vitoria wasn't on my radar, so that was scored at a 1.
With a possible 3 points for each individual element of these predictions, the grand total I used to determine the accuracy percentage was 204. And the 130 points awarded of that total were based on that 3-point scale, but with a margin of error applied, I hope that explains my method for scoring these predictions.
That being said, I also have other relevant documents to share. But because I don't want to make this post excessively long, this will conclude part 1 of my Post-Conference Document Analysis. A second part will follow later tonight and will focus on the other updated documents.
As I prepare to wrap up this first part, I wanted to note that this General Conference will likely be a template for others held going forward with the Saturday Evening Session. That means that President Nelson will continue to open and close each conference and conclude the Sunday Morning Session, but that he will also likely take his turn to speak every third Saturday Evening Session.
The counselors in the First Presidency will rotate between being the final speaker on Saturday Morning or Saturday Evening, or, for conferences in which President Nelson speaks during the Saturday Evening Session, whichever counselor does not speak last in the Saturday Morning Session will speak first Sunday Afternoon.
The five sessions will feature 3 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles each speaking Saturday Morning, Saturday Afternoon, and Sunday Morning, with 2 members speaking in the final session, and 1 at the beginning of the Saturday Evening Session. The other general leaders of the Church (Presidency of the Seventy, General Authority Seventies, members of the Presiding Bishopric, and General Officers of the Church) will speak in the five general sessions with some degree of rotation that will vary each General Conference.
So that seems to be what we will be looking at going forward for General Conferences. Of course, it's also possible that there will be different speaker lineups for April vs. October, but until that is proven to be correct, I think the October 2021 General Conference will be the standard template. I will be back shortly with the second part of my analysis.
In the meantime, that does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.
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