Now I will share how my predictions for changes in general Church leadership panned out. Below are my predictions, with each followed by a note that highlights what actually happened. All things considered, I didn't do too badly. See for yourself:
April 2015 Predictions for Changes in General Church Leadership
First Quorum of the Seventy: New members added from
Second Quorum of the Seventy, Area Seventies, or Church at large.
NOTE: Kim B. Clark, Von G. Keetch, Alan D. Haynie, Hugo
Montoya, and Vern P. Stanfill were sustained as new members of the First
Quorum of the Seventy.
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Second Quorum of the Seventy: New members added from
Area Seventies or Church at large.
NOTE: No changes.
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Area seventies: Releases and sustainings.
NOTE: Releases and sustainings occurred.
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Young Men General Presidency: David L. Beck, Larry M.
Gibson, and Randall L. Ridd released; new Young Men General Presidency
sustained (perhaps with Randall L. Ridd remaining as President or Counselor).
NOTE: Young Men Presidency was released. New Young Men
General Presidency: Stephen
W. Owen, Douglas
D. Holmes, and M. Joseph Brough.
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Primary General Presidency: Rosemary M. Wixom, Jean A.
Stevens and Cheryl A. Esplin released; new Primary General Presidency
sustained.
NOTE: Sisters Stevens and Esplin were released.
Rosemary M. Wixom remains as Primary General President, with Cheryl A. Esplin
as First Counselor and Mary R. Durham as Second Counselor.
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Now I will share how my predictions for General Conference speaking order turned out, followed by my analysis of them.
April 2015 General Conference Predictions
Session
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Conducting
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Speaker
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General Women’s
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Bonnie L. Oscarson
[Linda K. Burton]
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Cheryl A. Esplin
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[Carole M Stephens]
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Carol F. McConkie
|
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[Bonnie L. Oscarson]
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Carole M. Stephens
|
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[President Henry B. Eyring]
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President Thomas S. Monson
|
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Saturday Morning
|
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
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President Thomas S. Monson [President Henry B. Eyring]
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[President Boyd K. Packer]
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Elder L. Tom Perry
|
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[Linda K. Burton]
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Bishop Gérald Caussé
|
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[Elder Dallin H. Oaks]
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Linda K. Burton
|
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Elder L. Whitney Clayton
|
||
[No one]
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Elder Richard G. Scott
|
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[Elder L. Tom Perry]
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President Henry B. Eyring
|
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Saturday Afternoon
|
President Henry B. Eyring
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President Dieter F. Uchtdorf (Sustaining of Church Officers)
|
Church Auditing Department Report, 2014
|
Kevin R. Jergensen
|
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Statistical Report, 2014
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Brook P. Hales
|
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[Elder David A. Bednar]
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President Boyd K. Packer
|
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[Elder D. Todd Christofferson]
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Elder David A. Bednar
|
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[Elder Wilford W. Andersen]
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Elder Kevin W. Pearson
|
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[Elder Dale G. Renlund]
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Elder Rafael E. Pino
|
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[Elder Michael T. Ringwood]
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Elder M. Russell Ballard
|
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[Elder Quentin L. Cook]
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Elder D. Todd Christofferson
|
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Saturday Priesthood
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President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
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Elder Russell M. Nelson [Elder M. Russell Ballard]
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Elder Ulisses Soares
|
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Larry M. Gibson
|
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President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
|
||
President Henry B. Eyring
|
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President Thomas S. Monson
|
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Sunday Morning
|
President Henry B. Eyring
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President Dieter F. Uchtdorf [President Thomas S. Monson]
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[Rosemary M. Wixom]
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Elder Quentin L. Cook
|
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[Elder Jose L. Teixeira]
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Rosemary M. Wixom
|
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[Bishop Gerald Causse]
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Elder Jose A. Teixeira
|
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[Elder Brent H. Nielson]
[Elder Jeffrey R. Holland]
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Elder Neil L. Andersen
|
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[President Dieter F. Uchtdorf]
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President Thomas S. Monson
|
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Sunday Afternoon
|
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
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Elder Robert D. Hales
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[Elder Kevin W. Pearson]
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Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
|
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[Elder Rafael E. Pino]
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Elder Jorge F. Zeballos
|
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[Elder Neil L. Andersen]
|
Elder Mervyn B. Arnold
|
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[Elder Jorge F. Zeballos]
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Elder Yoon Hwan Choi
|
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[Elder Joseph W. Sitati]
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Elder Brent H. Nielson
|
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[Elder Russell M. Nelson]
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Elder Dallin H. Oaks
|
|
[No one]
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President Thomas S. Monson
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77% accuracy on
these predictions.
The biggest surprises with these predictions were that President Monson spoke only twice, rather than the five times I had predicted, that Elder Scott did not speak, that there were 3 apostolic speakers Saturday Morning and 3 Saturday Afternoon (typically there are 2 and 4, respectively), that there were several seventies I dd not predict that spoke to us, and that we had a few more speakers this conference than is typical for an April General Conference. The closest I came to having a perfect prediction for a session was the Priesthood Session, where I only got the first speaker incorrect. As I explained last conference, I give myself 3 points per speaker: 3 if I got the right person in the right position in the right session, 2 points if I got them in the right session but the wrong position, 1 point if I got it right that they spoke at all, even if the session or order was incorrect, and no points if there was a wild card, or person I did not predict. So for the Priesthood Session, for example, there were 21 points possible. I got 18 because I got all the correct speakers in the correct position, except for getting the first person incorrect. As shown above, I was 77% accurate with these predictions. Which falls right in with my typical accuracy range of 60-80%. Not bad at all. I usually have my predictions for next conference made by this time, but haven't started on those yet. I will post those closer to October General Conference.
So there you have it: a report on my predictions and how they turned out. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. I will post probably within the next day or two with a much-needed update on how our lives have gone since my last general update. Until I write again, all the best!