The way I track that data is first by quorum, then by the areas of the Church that fall under the 3rd-8th Quorums. And I then take the number of men serving within each area, add those to get a total for each quorum, and keep a running track of the grand total. The results of that process, as reflected by the changes announced at the last general conference, follow below, and will in turn be followed by some general comments on that data.
|
Quorum
|
Totals within each Area
|
Quorum Total
|
Grand Total
|
|
3rd
|
14+14+18+4+2
|
52
|
52
|
|
4th
|
4+14+23+18
|
59
|
111
|
|
5th
|
8+6+9+7+11+15
|
56
|
167
|
|
6th
|
10+11+11+17
|
49
|
216
|
|
7th
|
20+19
|
39
|
255
|
|
8th
|
9+8+15+14
|
46
|
301
|
The first observation I wanted to make is that there are currently three of the six Quorums (the first three) that are very close to the limit of 70, when previous Quorums have been split. That said, if I have correctly counted, we have a number of area seventies within these six Quorums that may be released in October, including those who have served as such for the last 7-10 years and have not yet been released and those who have been called to be temple or mission presidents. The number of those falling within those parameters is as follows, again listed by Quorum:
|
Quorum
|
Number of area seventies that may be released
|
|
3rd
|
2
|
|
4th
|
1
|
|
5th
|
3
|
|
6th
|
3
|
|
7th
|
3
|
|
8th
|
2
|
|
Area Seventies: Some area seventies released, others called.
Note: The following area seventies may or may not be released: Elders
Tasara Makasi, Fred A. Parker, and Miguel A. Reyes, who have been called as
mission presidents and will begin their service in July; and Elders B. Sergio
Antunes, Joao R. Grahl, Todd B. Hansen, Daniel W. Jones, Steven O. Laing, and
Katsuyuki Otahara, who have been called as temple presidents and will begin
their service in November; and Elders Sergio L. Krasnoselsky (who has served
since April 2009), Kevin J. Worthen (who has served since April 2010), R.
Randall Bluth, Hans T. Boom & David J. Thomson (who have served since
April 2011).
Additional note: In recent years, it has been customary to see most
changes in Area Seventies in April, and only a handful in October. Although
mission presidents serve full-time, in recent years, several area seventies
called as mission presidents have continued to serve as area seventies for
one or two conferences after beginning their new assignments to preside over
missions. By contrast, the assignment to serve as temple president generally
precludes any area seventies from continuing in both callings.
Result:
|
I also recognize that these are just my own thoughts and observations, which I share, for what they may be worth to some of you. Any insights any of you have in terms of what I might have overlooked in my analysis on this topic are always welcome and appreciated.
That does it for this post. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.
Your statement in regards to the majority of the changes taking place in April seems to have changed. In 2017 37 seventies were called and only 2 released. (Both were called as GA seventies). In October we saw the call of 1 area seventy and the releasing of 32. At the time I didn't know if this was an anomaly or a change in pattern to match the rest of the leadership changes. This year we had 55 men called, but only released 7. (6 are newly called GA70s). I expect we will see between 40-50 Area seventies released in October
ReplyDeleteThank you for taking time to comment, Scott. I recognize the truth in your statement (that the past couple of years have been an exception to the general rule that there are major changes in April and only a few in October), but that does bring up the interesting question: if the last couple of Octobers were an exception to that, would the October 2018 General Conference be more traditional in that sense, or would it be another exception?
ReplyDeleteLet's take this further. While I highlighted above those area seventies that will likely be released, I focused my list on those called as temple presidents, mission presidents, or those who have been serving for at least 7 years. Is there a standard period of service for these men? 5 years seems to be standard for most temporary local callings (although temple and mission presidents are clearly the exception, since each serves for 3 years).
But if the Church has a good reason to retain area seventies for longer than a 5-year period, it does get a bit tricky at times to determine how, when, and under what circumstances these men may be released. If we assume that I am spot on about those who will be released in October, there are, as mentioned, a total of 14 men I have identified as likely being released.
But it gets more interesting than that when we consider that area seventies called as mission presidents have retained both assignments, while those called as temple presidents seem to be released in consideration of their new responsibilities. And there are several interesting anomalies involved. Elder Bednar had been an area seventy for 5-7 years (depending on what period you count as part of his tenure), and there are a number of area seventies who have served for 10 years or more before their release. Prime examples of this recently are Jon M. Huntsman Sr. and J. Willard Marriott Jr.
So there is certainly no shortage of things to consider, not the least of which is that it was standard for most of the Hinckley and Monson presidencies for most changes to occur in April, with only a few in October. With the last two years that have been an exception to that, it certainly is possible that we could see this October turning out to be yet another exception.
The fact is, we have seen all kinds of precedent-breaking things occurring in recent General Conference. So at times, it is hard to say with any certainty what actually will happen. The odds are more likely than not that I have overlooked a great many possibilities in my analysis above.
That said, my analysis above constitutes the changes I feel are most likely, which may not exactly be equivalent to all the changes that will actually be announced. It will be interesting to see what occurs.
Additionally, another wild card in all of this is which of the two counselors might lead the sustaining. My feeling is that President Nelson may ask President Eyring to do so, since he has led the Sustaining every October within the last decade, and since most new area seventies are called in April, President Oaks may be held in reserve to lead that sustaining.
The matter of all the nuances involved in the callings and releases of area seventies are interesting to consider, and I hope the additional information I have shared in this comment is helpful to you, Scott, and to all who read both this post and this comment. Thanks for being willing to share your thoughts with all of us, Scott.