Stokes Sounds Off: UPDATED: Predictions for the October 2021 General Conference

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Tuesday, September 21, 2021

UPDATED: Predictions for the October 2021 General Conference

Hello again, everyone! In the last couple of months since the Church reinstated the Saturday evening session , I have been pondering if, how, and to what extent thr typical General Conference patterns under President Nelsson might change. When it comes to the speaker lineup predictions, I ran some specific scenarios to see if they would potentially be better than what I had originally suggestied following that announcement.  

After running those simulations, I have come to the conclusion that my original version of the potential lineup was the best scenario of the bunch, so not a lot has changed there. Meanwhile, slight adjustments have been made to the list of the most likely changes in Church leadership. And although I still have some checking to do on the list of the most likely locations in which a temple could be announced, the fact that I might still have updates on that was not enough of a good reason to delay posting that information.

That's especially true given the fact that there are less than 2 weeks before General Conference. I am hoping to take any comments into account as I go, which would potentially enable me to push the end of the commenting period to Friday October1 @ 10:00 PM. If I might do so, I'd like to offer a few preliminary things to bear in mind as you review these updates. 

First, with the shift from focusing on a specific demographic group to an additional general session for all members and friends of the Church, the reasoning behind that change was to give more general leaders of the Church an apportunity to speak than there would have been had the session been discontinued. So when I was recently running some simulated scenarios, I had a lot to consider. 

I see no reason why President Nelson would not continue to offer 4 addresses (meaning the only session in which he will not speak is Saturday Afternoon, unless there is a reason to do so). As I ran the simulations, I also saw no reason why both counselors in the First Presidency would not offer remarks in the Saturday Evening Session alongside the prophet, while also alternating being the concluding speaker on Saturday Morning and the opening speaker on Sunday Afternoon. 

Additionally, we have seen the Church take action to shorten the length of time that is taken by the Sustaining of Church Officers, cutting that by half, which in April allowed 4 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles to speak in the second session. And in all but 2 of the 7 General Conference held under President Nelson's prophetic guidance, 3 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles have spoken in the Saturday Morning Session.

Therefore, as far as the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles is concerned, I am predicting 3 members speaking in the Saturday Morning Session, 4 others that afternoon, and 1 in the evening session, which leaves 2 members to speak in each of the two Sunday Sessions. Having a majority of the Quorum speak in the first 3 sessions will enable the Church to call upon more non-apostolic speakers in both of the Sunday Morning and Sunday Afternoon Sessions.

Overall, that scenario would enable the Church to hear from 2-4 more non-apostolic speakers than would be able to speak if  another pattern or scenario were followed. Other considerations weere the average number of general officers that could speak going forward (that works out to a total of 4), and the GA Seventies and member of the Presiding Bishopric. 

Given that Elder Teixeira (who has been a member of the Presidency of the Seventy since August 2018) and Elder Palmer (who started serving in the Presidency of the Seventy on August 1 of this year) both spoke in the Sunday Morning Session of the April General Conference, (after having only 1 member of that Presidency speak per General Conference since 2018 began), my theory is that no members of the Presidency of the Seventy will speak. 

Then it became a matter of determining which GA Seventies to add to that lineup. Of those tenured GA Seventies who have not spoken recently, 2 last did so in October 2012, with 2 others last doing so in April 2013, so I put those Brethren in the lineup, along with several of the newer GA Seventies who have not yet spoken in General Conference.

Next, when it came to changes in general Church leadership, I have made a specific prediction this time around about a few of the newest area seventies that appear likely to be sustained. I could be partially or completely wrong on that, but I thought that merited a mention.  I've also noted in the past that I anticipate another double-digit number of new temples to be announced, but that I anticipate that number will likely be below 20.

And again, the list of prospective locations might be edited in the midst of the discussion about these updates. That being said, I look forward to feedback from any of you who might care to offer some. It's also worth noting that I'm hopeful that, with only 3 days remaining in the workweek, that one or two breaking temple updates or other breaking developments might be reported. If that occurs, I will be sure to pass those items on as i become aware thereof.

That does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

5 comments:

  1. Hello again, everyone! The Church News and the Newsroom have shared the following report
    https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/first-presidency-temple-masks-letter

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-09-22/first-presidency-statement-masks-in-temples-226328

    My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Church News also published the following two reports, which speak for themselves:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/history-revisited/2021-09-22/covid-19-church-response-timeline-missionaries-temples-191247

      My thanks once again to you all.

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-09-22/preparing-3-needful-things-elder-gongmissionaries-226230

      My

      Delete
    2. The Church has reported on the death of another emeritus General Authority Seventy, Elder Ted E. Brewerton:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2021-09-22/elder-ted-e-brewerton-dies-emeritus-general-authority-funeral-226389

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
    3. At some point this afternoon or evening, updates were provided on the Feather River California, Okinawa Japan, Bangkok Thailand, Taylorsville Utah, Mendoza Argentina, Deseret Peak Utah, Pittsburgh Pennsylvania, and Hong Kong China Temples. The update on Pittsburgh shows that full-scale construction has begun for that temple roughly one month after its' groundbreaking was conducted. You can find the newest updates on the following pages:

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/feather-river-california-temple/

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/okinawa-japan-temple/

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/bangkok-thailand-temple/

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/taylorsville-utah-temple/

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/mendoza-argentina-temple/

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/deseret-peak-utah-temple/

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/pittsburgh-pennsylvania-temple/

      https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/hong-kong-china-temple/

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
    4. And the Church News has also shared a report on the latest BYU-Idaho Devotional, which featured Brother Ahmad S. Corbitt, First Counselor in the Young Men General Presidency:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2021-09-22/brother-corbitt-byu-idaho-devotional-looking-forward-with-an-eye-of-faith-226341

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete

In addition to my life-long love for the subjects which I cover in the posts of this blog, I have long held the belief that we can disagree without becoming disagreeable. Differences of opinion are natural, while being disagreeable in expressing those differences is not. And in that sense, I have no desire to close the door on anyone who earnestly desires to contribute to the ongoing dialogue on subjects covered in the posts on this blog.

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