Hello again, everyone! In the last several weeks, I have put more thought into my predictions for the upcoming October 2022 General Conference. There are many things we don't currently know about that conference right now. For example, we still have no idea what the focus of the Saturday Evening Session will be. We have also not yet seen notification of any changes being made to area seventies effective August 1.
So that makes things slightly more difficult to predict. However, I have taken a look back at what we saw in October of last year, and tried to model my predictions for this October after that. The process of the resulting revisions is far enough along that I am ready to formally present them for review here. So I am pleased to provide a revised speaker lineup, an adjusted list of changes to general Church leadership, and an expanded list of potential locations in which a temple could be announced.
If I may provide it, some brief context on each might be helpful. First of all, I realized that the original speaking order I laid out did not account for one of the GA Seventies who had not spoken recently, while it had included that GA Seventy's counterparts who had last spoken at the same conference, so I added him in and adjusted accordingly. I had also failed to account for GA Seventies who will be released during that conference and have not spoken recently in General Conference.
I had similarly forgotten that the Church has rotated speaking opportunities between members of the Sunday School and Young Men General Presidencies on an alternating basis, but that I had representatives from both in the lineup. And I also realized I hadn't allowed for an increased number of speakers from the female General Officers. So the revised speaker lineup fixes all of those issues.
As I mentioned above, the Church has not yet released a list of changes in area seventies that will go into effect this month. So either that list will be released tomorrow or there will not be any changes in area seventies this time around. And based on a deeper analysis of Nelsonian temple announcements thus far, I realized I needed to expand my list of potential temple candidates. I think I've been pretty thorough with all of that.
I think that's all the explanation the revisions require at this point. Once any details on the Saturday Evening Session are announced, further updates may be necessary. As a reminder, an open commenting period on these predictions remains in effect until 10:00 PM on Thursday, September 29, so that there will be sufficient time for me to make any necessary revisions before General Conference officially gets underway.
I look forward to a robust discussion. In the meantime, that does it for now. All comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as the offered feedback is made per the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. I hope any of you who would like to share anything will take your opportunity to “sound off” in the comments below. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.
10 least likely places (sorry, just for fun)
ReplyDeleteMecca or Medina, Saudi Arabia
Kabul, Afghanistan
Pyongyang, North Korea
Mogadishu, Somalia
Tehran, Iran
Mount Athos, Greece
Tristan da Cunha Islands, UK
Askhabat, Turkmenistan
Antarctica
Just a quick reminder: I welcome all comments that meet the parameters laid out in the comment form, but it is difficult for me to reply to comments like this one above when I don't know to whom I'm supposed to address such replies. If you are uncomfortable providing your real names, you can use a nickname or a pseudonym. But with all I've got going on in my life, I'm going to need to be better on my end at enforcing the parameter of deleting comments to which there is no name attached.
DeleteI recognize that there could be several good reasons for well-meaning commenters to want to remain unrecognized online, but for the purposes of this blog, and to serve the best interests of both my other readers who comment under names and also myself as someone with an obligation to moderate such discussions, I don't see it as a discourtesy to ask for names to be associated with comments. In fact, at this point, it seems almost deliberately discourteous to me and my other readers who comment with names attached to that feedback for any individuals to comment here when their comments do not meet those parameters.
I would hope that those who respect my other readers, me, and my content enough to comment on it would also respect me and others enough to provide a name. So this is just a reminder that I would like a name to work with in every possible case. If there is some legitimate reason why those who comment here cannot be compliant with my request, they can approach me privately about it.
That being said, let's address the comment in question, even if it is hard for me to measure my response regarding the individual to whom I am responding. But I will do my best. Saudi Arabia might have the best chance to have a temple soonest. But right now, in Saudi Arabia, there are only around 1,000 members of the Church in that nation, scattered through 10 congregations. A temple there would likely require at minimum a district to specifically serve the Saints in that nation. I don't see a temple there as a prospect for at least the next 10 years. The following page indicates why I say that:
Deletehttps://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2018/08/updated-country-profile-saudi-arabia.html
Similar story for Afghanistan, which may have the second-best chance of having a temple:
https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2018/10/updated-country-profile-afghanistan.html
Though there might be a case for a temple in North Korea, I would not anticipate that until major headway is made on the temples announced for Russia, mainland China, and the UAE. And I'd probably say headway will not be made on the former two until the current leadership regime in both nations collapse, which applies in equal measure to any temple in North Korea.
Of all the locations mentioned, Somalia may have the fourth-best chance for a temple in the near term, but that is not feasibly likely for the foreseeable future until the Church is more fully established there:
https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2018/07/updated-country-profile-somalia.html
Iran likely ranks as the third-best likely nation on your list for a temple announcement:
https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2018/09/updated-country-profile-iran.html
And a temple in Iran would only be likely if a majority of the Iranian Saints who converted and are living in other nations "return home" to an extent that stakes and missions could be established:
https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2018/09/updated-country-profile-iran.html
Greece had a misssion, which was discontinued 4 years ago:
https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/search?q=Greece&max-results=20&by-date=true
Until the Church is stronger there, I don't see that happening.
Tristan da Cunha might be a more likely prospect, once several other European nations with a stronger Church presence but no temple receive one and most of those are operating or at least under construction. Other parts of the UK would likely be prioritized first.
DeleteReligious restrictions will prevent a temple (or even a stronger Church presence) in Turkmenistan until those restrictions are listed. And with no members or officially-known presence of the Church on Antartica, a temple there would likely not even be remotely in the running for the next century at minimum.
Still, it is fun to think about dark-horse candidates, and all of the locations named could get a temple at some point, if certain conditions improved or specific milestones were reached. Again, I don't know who to thank for this comment, but I appreciate you, whoever you might be, weighing in with your thoughts.
I am sorry for previous anonymous comment. It was a suddenly idea, and what I wrote - just for fun. Thank you for your answers. I am not member of LDS church, but I like the Temples buildings, and always waiting for april and octorber for new temples news (and before the predictions). Also I'm happy with Budapest Temple in future.
DeleteFrancis Hungary, thanks for your follow-up comment. I apologize if the initial tone and content of my first reply focused more on your anonymity than it should. I've been dealing with a lot of stress unrelated to developments I report here, and when that happens, it tends to spill over into my blogging, so my profoundest apologies for that.
DeleteIn reply to your latest comment, I feel privileged that you have now weighed in twice on this thread, especially as someone who is not himself a member of the Church. I am assuming that your last name and the content of your last comment means that you are living in Hungary currently, or at least have ties to the area, so welcome to my blog. I hope the substance and tone of my first reply to you doesn't drive you away. I have that affect on people sometimes without intending to come across that way.
That being said, I also appreciate your expressed love for hearing about and discussing temples, especially which new ones may be announced. And again, on a personal level, I was pleased to see the announcement of a temple in Hungary myself, since that prospect had been on my list for a while before it was actually announced. Given how fast other European temples have recently gone from announcement to groundbreaking to construction and on to dedication, I'm surprised on my end that we haven't heard anything official on the Budapest temple, given that it was announced almost 3.5 years ago.
I'm cautiously optimistic that a major announcement is on the way from the Church relating to at least 1 or 2 of the most recently announced European temples. But to speak specifically of the temple announced for Budapest again, since you mentioned you are not a Church member, have you ever looked at the Church of Jesus Christ Temples site? I ask because the entry for Budapest includes a photograph gallery showing 5 photographs. 4 of those 5 include locations in which the Church could potentially build the Budapest temple:
https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/budapest-hungary-temple/photographs/
As you'll see from that gallery, it appears that the current sites of the Pest, Kispest, and Buda Ward buildings tcould each be prospective spots for that temple. Aside from the photograph gallery, I can also tell you I know a bit about the Church in that part of Europe (my wife served her mission in the neighboring nation of Austria), so in that regard, I am familiar with some of the issues that might impact the timing whereby temples are built in either Budapest or Vienna (though both cities have obviously already had temples announced).
So like I said, I am hopeful for potential announcements in the relatively near term about a couple of the most-recently-announced European temples, and Budapest could easily be one of the cities on the list for such an announcement. Of course, I have nothing other than a gut feeling to back that up, but I thought it would be worth mentioning.
In any case, I appreciate you sharing your thoughts here with me and my readers. I hope you like what you see here and decide to become a regular reader and follower of this blog, but even if you are only interested in the temple updates, I appreciate hearing from you, Francis. Given the fact that you are not a member of the Church, would you have any interest in learning more about the Church? Or are you only interested in the Church as far as temple building is concerned? Either way, it was wonderful to hear from you, Francis, and I hope you like what you see here about temples and decide to become a regular reader and commenter. I also pray that the Lord will continue to bless you in everything you do.
Thank you for answers and kindly words. Yes, I am living in Budapest.
ReplyDeleteI know the churchofjesuschristtemples website and I use to browse it. Not just because of the news, but the temples renderings. I am curious how big the Budapest Church will be and in what style it will be built. I think it will be smaller, 10,000 ft^2 or less.
The 2nd of the pictures is the most likely (the garden). All Meeting Houses has a fully built-up area.
Francis Hungary, I read your latest comment yesterday after you posted it here, but had some issues posting a reply to it then. Sorry about my delayed response. It's awesome to hear that, as someone outside the Church, you are not only excited about the subject of new temples, but are also aware of the Church temples site.
DeleteAs far as the pictures from the gallery, in recent years, the Church has sometimes demolished existing meetinghouses to make room for a temple and new meetinghouse. So that could be a possibility for the Budapest temple. Older buildings are a rare treasure, though, so you could be right about the empty plot of land being the most likely spot for the temple. It will be interesting to see what happens there.
As far as the temple size, I believe you're right that it will be smaller, which leaves two options. The Church has done a 10,000 square foot modular design with prefabricated modules for three US temples and one Mexico temple thus far (Torreon), and that would enable the Budapest temple to be built within an 18-21 month timeline.
The other option is what we saw happen with the Yigo Guam, Praia Cape Verde, and San Juan Puerto Rico Temples, where temples under 10,000 square feet have two ordinance rooms that can be converted into either rooms for the endowment or rooms for temple sealings, based on what is at any given time on any given day. So either scenario would be likely for the temple in Budapest.
My understanding is that supply chain issues are impacting progress on temples worldwide, and since several of the temples under construction have seen those delays, it might be that the Church is waiting to make other major temple announcements, including for additional details on announced temples or conducting any other temple groundbreakings until those supply chain issues are properly resolved.
That being said, I would be absolutely shocked if something is not done to move the Budapest temple into the construction queue by either 2024 or 2025. It's always interesting to think about things like that. Thanks again, Francis Hungary, for taking time to comment. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts anytime you like. I appreciate hearing from you.
Actually, I only know the Pest Meeting House area because it is nearby.
DeleteI read somewhere that the church takes into account the architectural environment of the given country / county. Well, I like the Puerto Rican Temple - I could imagine it with a different tower, but then it would fit perfectly into the Budapest environment, like a small Christian church. (I know, the functions are different for an LDS church, I wrote it just for analogy.) I will wait patiently for the news and I am curious about the new Temples in October.
Francis Hungary, I'm glad you're familiar with the Pest meetinghouse. I've been thinking since your last comment, and since it looks like all three meetinghouses pictured on the Church temples site are older and iconic, it's harder for me to believe any of them might be torn down to make way for the temple and a newer meetinghouse, since the Church is also sensitive to cultural icons. So the empty field could be the perfect spot for the temple.
DeleteYou make an interesting observation about the San Juan Puerto Rico Temple. Based on what I know about the Church in Europe generally and in Hungary particularly, and on the fact that the Church takes cultural similarities into account, I wouldn't be shocked if the Church used a similar design and floor plan for the Budapest temple that they used for Puerto Rico.
That being said, I also know that the Church sometimes has a harder time getting approval for some temples than they do for others in a similar area. In 2018, President Nelson announced 2 temples in the Mindanao region of the Philippines: Cagayan de Oro in April and Davao in October. Construction on the latter is well underway, while we have not even had a site announced for the former.
My reason for mentioning that here is that it did occur to me to wonder if the Church might be able to more easily get approval for the temple in neighboring Austria before that happens for the temple in Hungary.
I would be thrilled either way (my wife served her mission in Austria, so that temple is significant for her). I am assuming that the announcements confirming anything official on any announced temples have been put on temporary hold until the current supply chain issues are resolved. So it could be that the Church may not announce anything new relating to European temples until early next year. But I hope I'm wrong on that as well.
Thanks again, Francis Hungary, for taking time to comment. I hope you'll feel free to comment here anytime you like. I am inspired by your enthusiasm for temples as someone who is not a member of the Church.