General Conference Predictions Results

I'm sorry to be getting back to this so late. Life caught up with me in a major way, and I simply have not been feeling up to posting lately. But the storms have calmed down, so now I can get back to things. After last general conference, I posted the result of my predictions. So this post will serve the same purpose. First, Church membership for the end of 2014 was announced as 15,372,337. This is 24,363 less than the prediction I made of 15,396,700. In all fairness to me, though, my method for predicting the increase in Church membership is somewhat obscure and not based on any particular method. The only factor determining my prediction is the average church membership increase of previous years. If the Deseret News was still putting out a Church Almanac, then that would list Church membership up to the end of the 3rd quarter of each year, which would give me a much better number to base my prediction on.

Now I will share how my predictions for changes in general Church leadership panned out. Below are my predictions, with each followed by a note that highlights what actually happened. All things considered, I didn't do too badly. See for yourself:

April 2015 Predictions for Changes in General Church Leadership

First Quorum of the Seventy: New members added from Second Quorum of the Seventy, Area Seventies, or Church at large. NOTE: Kim B. Clark, Von G. Keetch, Alan D. Haynie, Hugo Montoya, and Vern P. Stanfill were sustained as new members of the First Quorum of the Seventy.

Second Quorum of the Seventy: New members added from Area Seventies or Church at large. NOTE: No changes.

Area seventies: Releases and sustainings. NOTE: Releases and sustainings occurred.

Young Men General Presidency: David L. Beck, Larry M. Gibson, and Randall L. Ridd released; new Young Men General Presidency sustained (perhaps with Randall L. Ridd remaining as President or Counselor). NOTE: Young Men Presidency was released. New Young Men General Presidency: Stephen W. Owen, Douglas D. Holmes, and M. Joseph Brough.

Primary General Presidency: Rosemary M. Wixom, Jean A. Stevens and Cheryl A. Esplin released; new Primary General Presidency sustained. NOTE: Sisters Stevens and Esplin were released. Rosemary M. Wixom remains as Primary General President, with Cheryl A. Esplin as First Counselor and Mary R. Durham as Second Counselor.

The biggest surprises here were that there were no members added to the Second Quorum of the Seventy and that only the counselors in the Primary General Presidency were changed, rather than the whole presidency. I guess the Church has made a decision as much as possible not to have two new auxiliary presidencies called during the same conference. Which makes sense in a way, but it was still surprising. I wouldn't be surprised if we got a new Primary General Presidency next April, after this one has functioned for a year.

Now I will share how my predictions for General Conference speaking order turned out, followed by my analysis of them.

April 2015 General Conference Predictions

Session	Conducting	Speaker
General Women’s	Bonnie L. Oscarson [Linda K. Burton]	Cheryl A. Esplin
	[Carole M Stephens]	Carol F. McConkie
	[Bonnie L. Oscarson]	Carole M. Stephens
	[President Henry B. Eyring]	President Thomas S. Monson
Saturday Morning	President Dieter F. Uchtdorf	President Thomas S. Monson [President Henry B. Eyring]
	[President Boyd K. Packer]	Elder L. Tom Perry
	[Linda K. Burton]	Bishop Gérald Caussé
	[Elder Dallin H. Oaks]	Linda K. Burton
		Elder L. Whitney Clayton
	[No one]	Elder Richard G. Scott
	[Elder L. Tom Perry]	President Henry B. Eyring
Saturday Afternoon	President Henry B. Eyring	President Dieter F. Uchtdorf (Sustaining of Church Officers)
	Church Auditing Department Report, 2014	Kevin R. Jergensen
	Statistical Report, 2014	Brook P. Hales
	[Elder David A. Bednar]	President Boyd K. Packer
	[Elder D. Todd Christofferson]	Elder David A. Bednar
	[Elder Wilford W. Andersen]	Elder Kevin W. Pearson
	[Elder Dale G. Renlund]	Elder Rafael E. Pino
	[Elder Michael T. Ringwood]	Elder M. Russell Ballard
	[Elder Quentin L. Cook]	Elder D. Todd Christofferson
Saturday Priesthood	President Dieter F. Uchtdorf	Elder Russell M. Nelson [Elder M. Russell Ballard]
		Elder Ulisses Soares
		Larry M. Gibson
		President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
		President Henry B. Eyring
		President Thomas S. Monson
Sunday Morning	President Henry B. Eyring	President Dieter F. Uchtdorf [President Thomas S. Monson]
	[Rosemary M. Wixom]	Elder Quentin L. Cook
	[Elder Jose L. Teixeira]	Rosemary M. Wixom
	[Bishop Gerald Causse]	Elder Jose A. Teixeira
	[Elder Brent H. Nielson] [Elder Jeffrey R. Holland]	Elder Neil L. Andersen
	[President Dieter F. Uchtdorf]	President Thomas S. Monson
Sunday Afternoon	President Dieter F. Uchtdorf	Elder Robert D. Hales
	[Elder Kevin W. Pearson]	Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
	[Elder Rafael E. Pino]	Elder Jorge F. Zeballos
	[Elder Neil L. Andersen]	Elder Mervyn B. Arnold
	[Elder Jorge F. Zeballos]	Elder Yoon Hwan Choi
	[Elder Joseph W. Sitati]	Elder Brent H. Nielson
	[Elder Russell M. Nelson]	Elder Dallin H. Oaks
	[No one]	President Thomas S. Monson

  77% accuracy on these predictions.

 The biggest surprises with these predictions were that President Monson spoke only twice, rather than the five times I had predicted, that Elder Scott did not speak, that there were 3 apostolic speakers Saturday Morning and 3 Saturday Afternoon (typically there are 2 and 4, respectively), that there were several seventies I dd not predict that spoke to us, and that we had a few more speakers this conference than is typical for an April General Conference. The closest I came to having a perfect prediction for a session was the Priesthood Session, where I only got the first speaker incorrect. As I explained last conference, I give myself 3 points per speaker: 3 if I got the right person in the right position in the right session, 2 points if I got them in the right session but the wrong position, 1 point if I got it right that they spoke at all, even if the session or order was incorrect, and no points if there was a wild card, or person I did not predict. So for the Priesthood Session, for example, there were 21 points possible. I got 18 because I got all the correct speakers in the correct position, except for getting the first person incorrect. As shown above, I was 77% accurate with these predictions. Which falls right in with my typical accuracy range of 60-80%. Not bad at all. I usually have my predictions for next conference made by this time, but haven't started on those yet. I will post those closer to October General Conference.

So there you have it: a report on my predictions and how they turned out. I hope you enjoyed reading it as much as I enjoyed writing it. I will post probably within the next day or two with a much-needed update on how our lives have gone since my last general update. Until I write again, all the best!

General Conference News

A bit later than promised, here's my recap of the major news from General Conference. During the sustaining of Church officers, we had some very vocal dissenting votes. This has not happened in general conference since the days of President Kimball. Back then, if an individual had a dissenting vote at general conference, he was invited to meet with a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles to explain his or her reason for so voting. Now that the Church is more global, it has become necessary to transfer that responsibility to stake presidents. I have heard that the dissenters felt they could not trust their local leaders with why they were dissenting. But I don't know if they would have been sufficiently mollified if they were able to meet with an apostle to discuss their dissent. These people just seemed bent on stirring up trouble. President Uchtdorf handled the situation beautifully.

During the sustaining, five new members were added to the First Quorum of the Seventy. Elder Kim B. Clark served as an Area Seventy in the Fifth Quorum of the Seventy (Idaho Area) from 2007-2014. He became President of BYU-Idaho on August 19, 2005, succeeding interim president Robert M. Wilkes, who was installed to replaced Elder David A. Bednar when he was called to the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. Elder Clark will be released as BYU-Idaho President on April 13. I found it interesting that he was called at this time of his life. He is 66 years old, considerably older than most members of the Seventy when they are called as general authorities. Because of his age, he will likely only serve four or five years before receiving emeritus status. But he was a good choice.

Elder Allen D. Haynie is 56 years old, so he will likely be a general authority for at least 14 years. He was serving in the Fifth Quorum of the Seventy (North America West Area) at the time of his call. His Church service has been quite extensive. He could still be an actively-serving general authority at the time of the Church's 200th anniversary. We'll have to see.

Elder Von G. Keetch is 55 years old, so he will likely also serve at least 14 or 15 years and still be serving at the time of the Church's 200th anniversary. At the time of his call, he was also serving in the Fifth Quorum of the Seventy (Salt Lake City Area). He has also served quite extensively in the Church, and is from Provo, Utah.

Elder Hugo Montoya is also 55 years old, so it's not unreasonable to assume that he too will serve 14 or 15 years and still be serving at or near the time of the Church's 200th anniversary. When he received his call, he was serving as an area seventy in the Fourth Quorum (Mexico Area). His Church service has been extensive as well.

Elder Vern P. Stanfill is 57, so he will likely serve for at least 13 years. His extensive Church service has included most recently his call as an area seventy in the Sixth Quorum of the Seventy (North America Central Area).

The Young Men General Presidency (David L. Beck, Larry M. Gibson, and Randall L. Ridd) were released. A new Young Men General Presidency was sustained. Additionally, Jean A. Stevens and Cheryl A. Esplin were released as First and Second Counselors in the Primary General Presidency. Sister Stevens' husband has been called to be a mission president. I thought the entire Primary General Presidency might be released, but Rosemary M. Wixom will continue to serve as Primary General President. Cheryl A. Esplin is the new First Counselor, and Mary R. Durham is the new addition to the presidency as the Second Counselor. How long they will serve together, I don't know. But time will tell,

The new Young Men Presidency are Stephen W. Owen, 57; Douglas D. Holmes, 53; and M. Joseph Brough, 51. All of them have served extensively in the Church and are excited to be called to work with young men and their leaders throughout the world. Sister Durham is 61 and is excited to have the chance to work with children and their leaders throughout the world. She has served extensively in the Church.

Also announced were the release of 49 and the calling of 53 area seventies. I take a biannual interest in geography when I determine which area each new seventy belongs to. I keep a list of currently serving area seventies in my copy of the Church Almanac.

Church membership at the end of 2014 was announced as 15,372,337. This is 24,363 less than the number of Church members I guessed there were. But it's always interesting to me to witness the growth of the Church.

But by far the most significant announcement to me came as President Monson delivered the second of only two addresses he gave during this conference. He talked about the progress of temples, then announced three temples in locations where they are badly needed. They will be in Abidjan Ivory Coast (Côte d’Ivoire), Port-au-Prince Haiti, and Bangkok, Thailand. In the Ivory Coast, members currently drive twelve hours each way to get to the Accra Ghana Temple. In Port-au-Prince Haiti, members currently drive almost a day's journey to the nearest temple, the Santo Domingo Dominican Republic Temple. In Bangkok Thailand, the members have to travel 1,000 miles one way to get to the nearest temple, the Hong Kong China Temple. The Bangkok temple will serve members in mainland southeast Asia. Interestingly enough, it is one of the five that was proposed by President Hinckley but never came to fruition until now. Each of these temples is significant.

So that's just a brief overview of the major General Conference news. Hope you enjoyed it. I will post the results of my general conference predictions perhaps tomorrow, with a general update about our situation to follow hopefully before the end of the week. Until I write again, all the best!

The Health of the Brethren

Hello, all. Many will note with surprise that it has been three weeks since I last posted anything. Things have been busy for us. I will provide an update later tonight if time allows, but for sure tomorrow if I don't get to it before then. I wanted to make a few posts first,  the first about the health of the brethren, the second about general conference news and the third about how my general conference predictions turned out. That said, here's the first post!

Many will note with surprise that President Monson, whom I predicted would speak five times during general conference (During the General Women's, Saturday Morning (opening address), Saturday Priesthood, Sunday Morning, and Sunday Afternoon (closing address) only gave his two major addresses during the Priesthood Session and the Sunday Morning Session. This article explains why that was. President Monson is apparently having some health issues. In that same article, it mentions that Elder Scott watched general conference at home due to his health reasons. I didn't read this article until after conference, so I was more than a little concerned about these two good brethren. The article helped put such fears to rest, but it did get me thinking that it was high time I wrote a blog post regarding the health of the brethren.

President Thomas S. Monson is 87. He will be 88 on August 21. He has not missed a general conference since his call as a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles almost 52 years ago. The only time he's missed a speaking assignment was one year when he was hospitalized the first weekend in December while a counselor in the First Presidency and was thus unable to fill his assignment to speak at the First Presidency Christmas Devotional. He has diabetes, but it is under control and doesn't impede or prevent him from doing his duty.

President Boyd K. Packer is 90. He will be 91 on September 10. He has not missed a general conference since his call as a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles almost 45 years ago. He collapsed after a 2011 meetinghouse rededication in Cambridge, Massachusetts. He had a pacemaker installed and had no further health troubles for a while. In October 2009, he began sitting down to deliver his conference talks. In April 2011, he was able to stand to deliver his remarks. In every conference since October 2011, he has been sitting down while speaking. He is wheelchair-bound due to a recurrence of his childhood bout with polio. In all other respects, he is healthy and well.

Elder L. Tom Perry is 92. He will be 93 on August 5. He has not missed a general conference since his call as a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles about 41 years ago. In a Church News article about his 90th birthday, Elder Perry shared the secret to his longevity: "When my dad turned 60 I was convinced he was ready for the grave; that was old. But when I turned 60, I felt like a kid of 18. When I turned 70, I felt like a kid of 20. When I turned 80, I felt like a kid of 30. Now that I’m 90, I feel like a kid of 40." The article goes on to comment: "He does not joke when asked about the secret of his longevity and youthful outlook. 'I had wonderful parents. I had the gospel. And I have great companions in my marriage. No one can fail if they have that combination,' he said." It is my belief that Elder Perry will live to break Elder David B. Haight's record of oldest living apostle. That will happen on July 5, 2020. Stay tuned for more on that.

Elder Russell M. Nelson is 90. He will be 91 on September 9. He has not missed a general conference since his call as a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles about 31 years ago. He is in excellent health and will likely be with us many more years to come.

All other apostles are in their 80s (Oaks, Ballard, Scott, Hales, Eyring), 70s (Holland, Uchtdorf, Cook, Christofferson), or 60s (Bednar, Andersen). With the exception of Hales, Scott, and Oaks (who was not attending conference when he was sustained as an apostle because of wrapping up his judicial obligations that took him out of the city and away from Salt Lake until the following month) all of them have been at every general conference since being sustained as either a general authority (Ballard, Holland, Eyring, Uchtdorf, Cook, Christofferson, Andersen) or apostle (Bednar). And all of them could well live into their 90s. It has always interested me to follow the lives of the apostles and to see whom the Lord preserves to lead the Church and whom He calls home for work beyond the veil. I am always saddened when one of these good brethren passes on but excited to see who will next join the apostolic ranks.

I hope this post has been informative and illuminating for you all and not just something boring to be read as a matter of routine. I haven't gotten all that many comments on my posts, so I never know who is reading them. The hour is late, so I'd better get to bed. Tomorrow I will try to post the other posts I meant to post today, including the general update I hope you've all been waiting for. Until I write again, all the best.