Some preliminary information. I will include two copies of the table I use to track when each apostle last spoke in each of the five general sessions.
Key to abbreviations used in the charts:
SAM=Saturday Morning
SAA=Saturday Afternoon
SPH=Priesthood
SUM=Sunday Morning
SUA=Sunday Afternoon
70 Pres=Presidency of the Seventy
PB=Presiding Bishopric
1stQof70=First Quorum of the Seventy
In the charts below, the month and year each apostle spoke in each session is listed, if known. When it happens that one of the three new apostles have not spoken as an apostle in that session of general conference, the month and year of when they last did so, along with the position held at the time, will be listed. The prediction shows simple addition as well, which I also like to do. When the numerical order of each apostle matches the number order they are, that notation will have an asterisk next to it. I have also added the apostolic order number to the speaking order number and have listed each time the result is odd or even. I will now post each individual chart, along with some brief commentary.
Scenario #1
|
|
SAM
|
SAA
|
SPH
|
SUM
|
SUA
|
|
Nelson
|
Oct 2012
|
Apr 2014*
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2015
|
|
Oaks
|
Apr 2015
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2014
|
Oct 2013*
|
Apr 2016
|
|
Ballard
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2015
|
Apr 2014
|
Oct 2014*
|
|
Hales
|
Oct 2013*
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2013
|
Oct 2014
|
Apr 2016
|
|
Holland
|
Apr 2014*
|
Oct 2015
|
Oct 2011
|
Apr 2015
|
Apr 2016
|
|
Bednar
|
Oct 2013
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2012
|
Apr 2014*
|
Oct 2015
|
|
Cook
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2015*
|
Oct 2014
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2013
|
|
Christofferson
|
Oct 2014
|
Apr 2015*
|
Oct 2012
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2015
|
|
Andersen
|
Apr 2014
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2013
|
Apr 2015*
|
|
Rasband
|
Apr 2014 (70 Pres)
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2010 (70 Pres)
|
Oct 2015
|
Oct 2000 (1stQof70)*
|
|
Stevenson
|
Apr 2016
|
N/A*
|
Oct 2012 (PB)
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2009 (1stQof70)
|
|
Renlund
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2015 (1stQof70)
|
N/A*
|
Oct 2015
|
Oct 2009 (1stQof70)
|
Scenario #1 Results
|
Nelson
|
SAA1
|
SAM
|
Hales (4 is 1)
|
|
Oaks
|
SUM2
|
|
Holland (5 is 2)
|
|
Ballard
|
SUA3
|
SAA
|
Nelson (1 is 3)
|
|
Hales
|
SAM1
|
|
Stevenson (11 is 4)
|
|
Holland
|
SAM2
|
|
Cook (7 is 5)
|
|
Bednar
|
SUM1
|
|
Christofferson (8 is 6)
|
|
Cook
|
SAA3
|
SPH
|
Renlund (12 is 7)
|
|
Christofferson
|
SAA4
|
SUM
|
Bednar (6 is 8)
|
|
Andersen
|
SUA2
|
|
Oaks (2 is 9)
|
|
Rasband
|
SUA1
|
SUA
|
Rasband (10 is 10)*
|
|
Stevenson
|
SAA2
|
|
Andersen (9 is 11)
|
|
Renlund
|
SPH
|
|
Ballard (3 is 12)
|
When adding the number of the apostle who spoke to the
apostolic number they are (seniority order) they are, is the resulting figure
odd or even?
Odd: 6
Even: 6
I favor this
scenario for a variety of reasons: It is very unusual to have someone go more
than 2 years without speaking in the Saturday Afternoon Session, which is
Nelson's situation. I think it would also be good to have the new apostles
begin speaking in the Priesthood Session, as none of them have done so since
they were called in October 2015. I love that with this one, it isn't hard to
picture it happening. And I love that this one has the three new apsotles
spread out. Note also on the Sunday Morning session: Last time Elder Oaks spoke
in that session, he was the first apostle to do so. When Elder Bednar last
spoke in the Sunday Morning session, he was the second speaker. I also love in
this one that the odd and even numbers are equal. Note for above: It is not
necessary for more senior apostles speaking in a session to be assigned before
their junior counterparts. That will become important for the next scenario.
Scenario #2
|
|
SAM
|
SAA
|
SPH
|
SUM
|
SUA
|
|
Nelson
|
Oct 2012*
|
Apr 2014
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2015
|
|
Oaks
|
Apr 2015
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2014
|
Oct 2013*
|
Apr 2016
|
|
Ballard
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2015
|
Apr 2014
|
Oct 2014*
|
|
Hales
|
Oct 2013*
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2013
|
Oct 2014
|
Apr 2016
|
|
Holland
|
Apr 2014
|
Oct 2015
|
Oct 2011*
|
Apr 2015
|
Apr 2016
|
|
Bednar
|
Oct 2013
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2012
|
Apr 2014*
|
Oct 2015
|
|
Cook
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2015*
|
Oct 2014
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2013
|
|
Christofferson
|
Oct 2014
|
Apr 2015*
|
Oct 2012
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2015
|
|
Andersen
|
Apr 2014
|
Apr 2016
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2013
|
Apr 2015*
|
|
Rasband
|
Apr 2014 (70 Pres)
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2010 (70 Pres)
|
Oct 2015
|
Oct 2000 (1stQof70)*
|
|
Stevenson
|
Apr 2016
|
N/A*
|
Oct 2012 (PB)
|
Oct 2015
|
Apr 2009 (1stQof70)
|
|
Renlund
|
Apr 2016
|
Apr 2015 (1stQof70)*
|
N/A
|
Oct 2015
|
Oct 2009 (1stQof70)
|
Scenario #2 Results
|
Nelson
|
SAM2
|
SAM
|
Hales
(4 is 1)
|
|
Oaks
|
SUM1
|
|
Nelson
(1 is 2)
|
|
Ballard
|
SUA2
|
SAA
|
Stevenson
(11 is 3)
|
|
Hales
|
SAM1
|
|
Renlund
(12 is 4)
|
|
Holland
|
SPH
|
|
Cook
(7 is 5)
|
|
Bednar
|
SUM2
|
|
Christofferson
(8 is 6)
|
|
Cook
|
SAA3
|
SPH
|
Holland
(5 is 3)
|
|
Christofferson
|
SAA4
|
SUM
|
Oaks
(2 is 8)
|
|
Andersen
|
SUA3
|
|
Bednar
(6 is 9)
|
|
Rasband
|
SUA1
|
SUA
|
Rasband
(10 is 10)*
|
|
Stevenson
|
SAA1
|
|
Ballard
(3 is 11)
|
|
Renlund
|
SAA2
|
|
Andersen
(9 is 12)
|
When adding the number of the apostle who spoke to the
number representing the order in which they are, is the resulting figure odd or
even?
Odd: 4
Odd: 4
Even: 8
It is not unusual to have such a disparity between the even and odd numbered speakers. I favor this one because it allows apostles who have not spoken recently tin a session to do so. It would make sense if Elders Stevenson and Renlund both spoke in the Saturday Afternoon Session. I like that President Nelson, who hasn't spoken in the Saturday Morning Session for four years, will get a chance to do so sooner this way. On the Sunday morning session, I like that they are speaking in seniority order. As we saw last Sunday afternoon session, that wasn't in order (Hales, Oaks, Holland), so I like how this one breaks up Rasband and Andersen. Plus, last time Andersen spoke in the Sunday afternoon session, he was the second speaker, and things rarely happen the same way twice. It would also be good to have some more time before any of the new apostles speak in the priesthood session. As you can see, most apostles (Oaks, Ballard, Hales, Bednar, Cook, Christofferson, Andersen, Rasband, Stevenson) only changed slightly from where they were in either prediction.
Note for above on the Saturday morning session: In both scenarios, I have Hales speaking first. Ordinarily, when a President of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speaks, he is the first in the session to do so. Obviously there are exceptions. But with Hales's health reportedly not well, it would give Hales a reason for speaking before his quorum president, as it is also not uncommon for a quorum president to be the last apostolic speaker in a session.
Note for above on the Saturday morning session: In both scenarios, I have Hales speaking first. Ordinarily, when a President of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speaks, he is the first in the session to do so. Obviously there are exceptions. But with Hales's health reportedly not well, it would give Hales a reason for speaking before his quorum president, as it is also not uncommon for a quorum president to be the last apostolic speaker in a session.
Finally, I could see either prediction as a very feasible option. But I've babbled on enough. What do you guys think? Any and all comments are welcome.
