There are only a few things I am not sure of: whether I've got the correct seventies in the correct slots, how many seventies will speak (which varies based on the length of talks of all other speakers), and who exactly will represent the Presiding Bishopric in speaking at General Conference. With the changes announced shortly after the October General Conference, we have one member of the Bishopric (Bishop Waddell, the second counselor) who has not had a chance to speak in General Conference since his first talk as a general authority several years ago. So he could be the one asked to speak this time. However, in checking on the patterns of Presiding Bishopric speakers, it has typically been (at least for the last few years) in this order: Presiding Bishop, Second Counselor, First Counselor. Since Bishop Causse as the first counselor spoke in April 2015, it would make sense if he, as the Presiding Bishop, spoke this go round, as Bishop Stevenson would have been the one in October had he not been called to the apostleship. But a new bishopric may mean a new pattern. The pattern seems to be for a PB member to speak in the priesthood session every other conference, and its been more than a year since we had a PB member speak in the Priesthood Session. Bishop Causse is the one I put in this time, but we'll see what happens. Just know that if it's not Bishop Causse, it will likely be Bishop Waddell, and that it is more than likely that the PB member will speak in the priesthood session.
I am excited about this general conference. It will mark the first time since they were called last conference that the newest apostles will be giving a full-length talk (15-20 minutes). There are likely to be several new temples, several new General Authorities, and a change in the Primary General Presidency. We will also get the chance to ratify by sustaining of the changes in the Presidency of the Seventy and the Presiding Bishopric. And while I don't know all of the Area Seventies that might be released this conference, we have quite a few that have been called to be mission presidents. So those changes are at least pretty definite.
That being said, here are my predictions for all of you that want to follow along.
April 2016 General Conference Predictions (Text in
brackets indicated what actually happened.)
Session
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Conducting
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Speaker
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General Women’s
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Rosemary M. Wixom
|
Linda K. Burton
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Cheryl A. Esplin
|
||
Neill F. Marriott
|
||
President Henry B. Eyring
|
||
Saturday Morning
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President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
|
President Henry B. Eyring
|
President Russell M. Nelson
|
||
Elder Gerrit W. Gong
|
||
Mary R. Durham
|
||
Elder Yoon Hwan Choi
|
||
Elder Per G. Malm
|
||
Elder Gary E. Stevenson
|
||
Saturday Afternoon
|
President Henry
B. Eyring
|
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf (Sustaining of Church
Officers)
|
Church Auditing
Department Report, 2015
|
Kevin R. Jergensen
|
|
Statistical Report, 2015
|
Brook P. Hales
|
|
Elder Ronald A. Rasband
|
||
Elder M. Russell Ballard
|
||
Elder Patrick Kearon
|
||
Elder Mervyn B. Arnold
|
||
Elder Neil L. Andersen
|
||
Elder David A. Bednar
|
||
Saturday Priesthood
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President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
|
Elder Dale G. Renlund
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Bishop Gerald Causse
|
||
Stephen W. Owen
|
||
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
|
||
President Henry B. Eyring
|
||
President Thomas S. Monson
|
||
Sunday Morning
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President Henry B. Eyring
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President Thomas S. Monson
|
Elder Quentin L. Cook
|
||
Elder Donald L. Hallstrom
|
||
Bonnie L. Oscarson
|
||
Elder Jairo Mazzagardi
|
||
Elder D. Todd Christofferson
|
||
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
|
||
Sunday Afternoon
|
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
|
Elder Robert D. Hales
|
Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
|
||
Elder Juan A. Uceda
|
||
Elder Kent F. Richards
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||
Elder Benjamin De Hoyos
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||
Elder Steven E. Snow
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||
Elder Dallin H. Oaks
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April 2016 Predictions for changes in General Church
Leadership
Presidency of the Seventy: Elder Gerrit W. Gong sustained as a new
member to replace Elder Ronald A. Rasband, who became a member of the Quorum
of the Twelve Apostles in October 2015.
NOTE: Elder Rasband’s call to the apostleship in October 2015 left a
vacancy in the Presidency of the Seventy that was not filled during General
Conference but a couple of days later. Elder L. Whitney Clayton was named the
new senior president of the Seventy (a position previously held by Elder
Rasband), and Elder Gong was called to fill the vacancy. It makes sense that
Elder Gong’s call will be ratified by sustaining vote during this conference.
RESULT:
|
First Quorum of the Seventy: Elder W. Christopher Waddell released in
view of his new calling as Second Counselor in the Presiding Bishopric; new
members sustained from the Second Quorum of the Seventy, Area Seventies, or
the Church at large.
NOTE: Elder Waddell’s call as the new Second Counselor in the
Presiding Bishopric had been announced in October 2015, shortly after General
Conference. It makes sense that this change, along with any sustainings, will
be ratified by sustaining vote during this conference.
RESULT:
|
Second Quorum of the Seventy: New members sustained from Area
Seventies or Church at large.
NOTE: Members of the Second Quorum of the Seventy are usually
sustained in April and released in October, so it makes sense that any
sustainings would be presented in April.
RESULT:
|
Presiding Bishopric: Bishop Gary E. Stevenson released as Presiding
Bishop in view of his call to the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles; Bishop
Gerald Causse released as First Counselor and sustained as the new Presiding
Bishop; Bishop Dean M. Davies released as Second Counselor and sustained as
the new First Counselor; Bishop W. Christopher Waddell sustained as the new
Second Counselor.
NOTE: When Bishop Stevenson was called to the Twelve in October 2015,
he retained the calling of Presiding Bishop until the changes noted above
took place a few days after the conference, so these changes will need to be
ratified by sustaining vote during this conference.
RESULT:
|
Area Seventies: Releases and sustainings for several Area Seventies.
NOTE: It seems to be a common practice for most releases and/or
sustainings of Area Seventies to happen in April, when President Dieter F.
Uchtdorf leads out in the sustaining of Church officers, while only a few
releases and sustainings of Area Seventies happen in October, when President
Henry B. Eyring leads out in the sustaining.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: We know that, at the very least, the following
currently-serving Area Seventies, who have been called to be mission
presidents, will be released: Kent J. Allen, Jeffrey D. Cummings, Hernán D. Ferreira, Brent J. Hillier, Alfred
Kyungu, D. Zackary Smith, Wenceslao
H. Svec, and Fabian I. Vallejo.
RESULT:
|
Primary General Presidency: Rosemary M. Wixom released as President,
Cheryl A. Esplin released as First Counselor, and Mary R. Durham released as
Second Counselor. New Primary General Presidency sustained, perhaps with Mary
R. Durham being sustained as the new Primary General President or one of the
counselors.
NOTE: Rosemary M. Wixom, the Primary General President, and her First
Counselor Cheryl A. Esplin, have served since April 2010, a period spanning 6
years. In the earlier days of the Church, tenures of general auxiliary
presidencies were not set to any specific length of time. But for at least
the last 20 years, tenure lengths for general auxiliary presidencies are
generally set at 5 years (with a minimum of 6 years if new presidency members
are sustained without a total reorganization of the presidency). It makes
sense that Sisters Wixom and Esplin would be released. It has been a
relatively common practice for members of General Presidencies who have been
in a year, as Mary R. Durham has, to be retained in a newly called
presidency. So it would make sense if the changes above take place.
RESULT:
|
Prediction for Church Statistics at the end of 2015
Stakes
|
3,174
|
Missions
|
417
|
Districts
|
580
|
Wards and Branches
|
30,061
|
Total Church Membership
|
15,683,533
|
Children of Record Increase
|
114,655
|
Convert Baptisms
|
307,541
|
Full-Time Missionaries
|
84,091
|
Church Service Missionaries
|
32,102
|
Temples Dedicated
|
5 (Cordoba Argentina, Payson Utah, Trujillo Peru,
Indianapolis Indiana, Tijuana Mexico)
|
Temples Rededicated
|
2 (Mexico City Mexico, Montreal Quebec Canada)
|
Temples Operating
|
149
|
Temple Predictions: 3+ temples announced around the
world, with the most likely candidates being American Samoa (Pago Pago); Arkansas
(Bentonville); Paraguay (Ciudad del Este); Utah (Layton or Lehi); Brazil (Belo
Horizonte); Venezuela (Maracaibo; temple proposed by President Hinckley);
Philippines (Davao); Bolivia (La Paz); Texas (Fort Worth); Colorado (Colorado
Springs); Austria (Vienna); Arizona (Chandler); Mexico (Guadalajara); Guatemala
(Villa Nueva); Ecuador (Quito); New Zealand (Auckland); Texas (Katy); Idaho
(Pocatello); Zimbabwe (Harare); Uganda; Kenya (Nairobi (proposed by President
Hinckley); Nevada (Henderson); Peru (Iquitos);
California (Long Beach); Philippines (Quezon City); Mongolia
(Ulaanbaatar) and Mexico (Cuernavaca).
Well, what do you think?
Great job, as always! Don't forget under "Temples Dedicated" the Provo City Center Temple.
ReplyDeleteThat one doesn't count for those dedicated in 2015, as it will be dedicated in March of this year. That one will be listed under temples dedicated in 2016, which will be in the statistical report read in the general conference of April 2017. Thanks for the comment.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteInteresting thoughts, especially about the temple predictions. I have a feeling there might not be many this time around, but I hope I'm wrong. Regarding your specific predictions, I think an Arkansas temple isn't far away, and as a former missionary in La Paz, Bolivia, I'd love to see one there, although I think it's still a few years away. A temple in Mongolia would be fantastic. Even a quick glance at a map shows that the stake there is the most isolated stake in the church (measuring distance to the nearest stake), and I'm sure those people would love to not have to travel to Hong Kong. Regarding Guadalajara, there is already a temple there. Are you predicting a second temple for that city? Do you have information that says that usage there is sufficient to warrant a second temple?
ReplyDeleteI don't have any of the inside information that Matthew Martinich seems to have, but I do follow the ldschurchtemples.com website, which, though not an official Church website, has a webmaster whose information comes directly from Church headquarters and tips by local members. I based my temple predictions on the following factors: 1. The number of operating stakes in each region. 2. the reported distance to the nearest temple (as President Monson's goal seems to be to ensure that every temple-worthy saint is no more than a 200-mile distance to the nearest temple. 3. My knowledge about the growth of the Church from reading Matthew Martinich's blog(s) 4. My careful following of Church-related and temple-related developments worldwide. (I know, for instance, that growth of the Church has really increased in the Central and South America regions and in the African regions). 5. Some temples have been proposed by those of the apostleship, and in many (if not all cases) the apostolic blessing has been that they will see a day when temples dot their lands (with temples being proposed, as mentioned in previous posts, specifically in New Delhi, India (proposed in 1992 by Elder Neal A. Maxwell); Vilnius Lithuania (proposed in 1993 by Elder M. Russell Ballard); 4 by President Gordon B. Hinckley (Nairobi Kenya Temple (proposed in 1998); Maracaibo Venezuela Temple (proposed in 1999); Singapore Temple (proposed in 2000); Southwest Salt Lake Valley Temple (proposed in 2005; already discussed in the comments on Matthew Martinich's blog)); Managua Nicaragua Temple (proposed in 2012 by Elder Russell M. Nelson); and the Kasai Region Democratic Republic of the Congo (proposed in 2016 by Elder Neil L. Andersen). Obviously, there are many apostolic promises made, and not all of them have come to fruition. But as I mentioned in another blog post, the faith of members combined with an apostolic promise can work wonders for the miracle of temples dotting the earth. For example, members in South Africa were recently promised in a regional conference address by President Dieter F. Uchtdorf that if they had faith and lived the gospel, a groundbreaking date for the temple would soon be able to be announced. So the faith of the members and apostolic promises given under the direction of the Spirit play an important role. I do know from talking to my team leader at work (whose family live in Arkansas) that a Bentonville Arkansas temple announcement may be imminent. Guadalajara was one of two or possibly three countries I am predicting a second temple for. As to my particular predictions, they are more hobby than actual study, but I worked overtime to get these as accurate as possible. It is always interesting to see just how accurate my predictions are. I have averaged around 60-80% accuracy per conference, and some things are a matter of routine to predict. Not so sure about some of them, but time will tell just how right or wrong I am. I believe that temples may also be imminent for Layton, Lehi, and Orem Utah. But that's another prediction for another time. In the meantime, thanks for the comment, and thanks for visiting.
ReplyDeleteI think Orem is unlikely as a temple location. The Tabernacle Temple will now be the temple for Provo and Springville, and the old Provo Temple will be the temple for Orem (and for the MTC). With other temples so close in American Fork (Mt Timpanogos) and Payson, there's not really any need for more temples in central Utah valley. (And we've been scolded recently that the AF temple is sitting idle too much of the time, so I don't think we can expect that the existing temples are bursting at the seams.) More likely, if you want to predict another Utah Valley temple, would be Saratoga/Lehi up north, but then they're a short drive to the Draper or American Fork temples.
DeleteI am predicting a temple for Layton or Lehi, but in looking particularly at the number of stakes in several Utah towns, I see a day where every major city and town in Utah will have a temple. I know that attendance is down lately at the Mount Timpanogos Temple, but with what I know of how busy they still are at the Provo temple, and with what I've heard already about the level of busyness of the Provo City Center temple just one short week after its dedication, a temple in Orem may not be as far distant as some think. Since I worked at the Mount Timpanogos Temple for six years, I am in a position to tell you that the people of Orem made up about 50% of the attendees at the Mount Timpanogos temple when they fell under that district, and the busyness of the Provo Temple is now likely to really take off since Orem stakes were moved to the Provo temple district. I strongly believe we will see an Orem temple one day, but time will tell. In the meantime, I think my predictions regarding Lehi and Layton are pretty solid. Thanks for the comment, and sorry I didn't see it sooner.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure I agree that all the publicly proposed temples are likely for an immediate announcement. American Samoa is much closer to an existing temple than some other Pacific island locations, for instance.
ReplyDeleteI've never followed your predictions before this conference, but it seems like you've done a good job of analyzing past patterns. I've done this a bit in the past but never published anything. I will be checking on the Women's meeting tonight to see how you did (among other reasons, of course).
I meant to say your predictions of speakers, in case it wasn't clear. I do wish you hadn't put your temple predictions and speaker predictions in the same post, since all of the other comments have been about temples. But, good work!
DeleteThanks for the comments, Brycen! I was not aware of American Samoa being close to a Pacific Island nation with a temple. In general, I'm not much of a geography buff, but I do have a semiannual interest in geography regarding what countries newly called area seventies are from, and what quorum and area they are in. In regards to the speaker predictions, I've been doing some form of them since 2007. My predictions have gradually been fine-tuned and researched to the point that, lately, as far as speaking order is concerned, I have a 60-80% accuracy rate. What I do is I assign three possible "points" to each speaking or conducting slot. If I get the right speaker in the right session in the right order, I give myself 3 points. A speaker who spoke in the session I predicted but not in the order I predicted would get me 2 points, and one point would be awarded if I got it right that they spoke at all. Then I just divide the number of points earned by the number of points available to "grade" my predictions. I may have to settle on having a different system for the statistics, temple announcements, and changes in general Church leadership. I realize that this post is a bit cumbersome to wade through, but I have found that those who follow my predictions like to have them all in one post. You're the first person to ever let me know that you would have liked it more as separate documents. I do have several documents on General Conference patterns and orders and statistics but found that I like to have them all in one post. However, I do appreciate your comment, and that will be something I take under advisement in regards to considering how all such future predictions are handled. Thanks again for the comments.
ReplyDelete