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Wednesday, October 4, 2017

General Conference Predictions Results

Hello, everyone! Since I have some time this evening to do so, I wanted to share how my predictions for this last General Conference turned out. It has been interesting to see how I was so close on so many things but how far off I was on so many others. It will likewise be interesting to see how any future General Conferences that will be held during the remainder of President Monson's life may compare to this one. In terms of my overall accuracy, which has typically been 60-80% in previous General Conferences, I was in the lower part of that percentage, which is to be expected with how much was unknown going into General Conference. And admittedly, in much of the way I graded myself, I did make some allowances for many unexpected things. That said, here are those results. I welcome any feedback. For now, thank you for the privilege of your time, and may the Lord bless you all in all that you do.

October 2017 General Conference Predictions

PRELIMINARY NOTE: With the May 23 announcement that President Monson would no longer be attending meetings or participating in the day-to-day governance of the Church as a result of difficulties incident to his age, I was unsure for quite a while what that might mean in terms of whether or not he would attend and be able to speak in any other General Conferences. The Church announced on September 28 that President Monson would not be attending General Conference, and neither would Elder Hales. Also, in view of the precedent set last April when we only heard from one female general auxiliary speaker in the four general sessions, and with us hearing from a member of each of the three auxiliaries in the General Women’s sessions, the Church may only have one female speaker in the four general sessions. With all of that in mind, I have felt that the First Presidency will ask President Nelson to speak twice, and that more General Authority Seventies will be asked to speak. Though I adjusted my original predictions for this conference on the night of September 29, I don’t feel bad for having done so. The First Presidency would likely have had advanced notice of the absences of President Monson and Elder Hales, and would have planned accordingly. Whatever does wind up happening will set the precedent for any future conferences in which President Monson will not be in attendance. Just wanted to note that.

Speaking Order (Text in brackets indicated what actually happened.)
Session
Conducting
Speaker
General Women’s
Joy D. Jones [Jean B. Bingham]
Christina B. Franco [Sharon L. Eubank]

[Neill F. Marriott]
Sharon Eubank

[Joy D. Jones]
Bonnie L. Oscarson


President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
Saturday Morning
President Henry B. Eyring
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf

[Bonnie L. Oscarson]
Bishop W. Christopher Waddell

[Elder Dallin H. Oaks]
Jean B. Bingham

[Elder John C. Pingree Jr.]
Elder David A. Bednar

[Elder D. Todd Christofferson]
Elder Massimo De Feo

[Elder Jeffrey R. Holland]
Elder O. Vincent Haleck

[No one]
Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
Saturday Afternoon
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
President Henry B. Eyring
(Sustaining of Church Officers)

[Elder Gary E. Stevenson]
President Russell M. Nelson

[Stephen W. Owen]
Elder Dale G. Renlund

[Elder Quentin L. Cook]
Elder Larry Y. Wilson

[Elder Ronald A. Rasband]
Elder Joni L. Koch

[Elder O. Vincent Haleck]
Elder Ian S. Ardern

[No one]
Elder Quentin L. Cook

[President Russell M. Nelson]
Elder Ronald A. Rasband
Saturday Priesthood
President Henry B. Eyring
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
[Elder Dale G. Renlund]

[Elder David F. Evans]
Elder D. Todd Christofferson

[Elder Richard J. Maynes]
Elder Patrick Kearon

[President Dieter F. Uchtdorf]
Elder Brian K. Taylor


President Henry B. Eyring
Sunday Morning
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
President Henry B. Eyring
[Jean B. Bingham]

[Elder Donald L. Hallstrom]
Elder Juan A. Uceda

[Elder David A. Bednar]
Elder Adilson de Paula Parrella

[Bishop W. Christopher Waddell]
Elder Gary E. Stevenson

[Elder W. Craig Zwick]
Elder David F. Evans

[President Henry B. Eyring]
Elder Taniela B. Wakolo

[No one]
President Russell M. Nelson
Sunday Afternoon
President Henry B. Eyring
Elder Neil L. Andersen
[Elder M. Russell Ballard]


Tad R. Callister

[Elder Joni L. Koch]
Elder John C. Pingree Jr.

[Elder Stanley G. Ellis]
[Elder Adilson de Paula Parrella]
Elder M. Russell Ballard

[Elder Ian S. Ardern]
Elder Jose L. Alonso

[Elder Jose L. Alonso]
Elder Taylor G. Godoy

[Elder Neil L. Andersen]
Elder Dallin H. Oaks

Changes in General Church Leadership
Presidency of the Seventy: Elders Donald L. Hallstrom and Richard J. Maynes released from the presidency, Elders Juan A. Uceda and Patrick Kearon sustained.
NOTE: These changes, announced on May 3, became effective on August 1. For that reason, they will likely be ratified by sustaining vote. However, because there has also been a time or two when such changes have not been so ratified, I would not be surprised if this is not noted. Until further notice, I have felt it would be wiser to include the information.
RESULT: These changes were ratified by sustaining vote.
General Authority Seventies: Elders Stanley G. Ellis, Larry R. Lawrence, and W. Craig Zwick released as General Authority Seventies and granted emeritus status.
NOTE: Elder Ellis turned 70 in January this year, just as Elder Zwick did in June, and Elder Lawrence did in August, so it would make sense if these men were released and granted emeritus status.
RESULT: Each of these Brethren was released & granted emeritus status.
Area Seventies: Releases and sustainings.
NOTE: It has been customary for most changes in area seventies to take place in April, when President Uchtdorf leads out in the sustaining vote, and for only a few to take place in October, when President Eyring leads out in the sustaining. Since we are talking about an October General Conference, it would make sense if only a few changes happened this go-round.
RESULT: Several area seventies were released; one was sustained.

Temple Predictions:
NOTE ABOUT ANNOUNCEMENTS: Two significant developments have occurred that will no doubt change how and when temple announcements occur for the remainder of President Monson’s presidency. First, during the Idaho Falls Idaho Temple Open House, Elder Larry Y. Wilson, the Executive Director of the Church’s Temple Department, stated that the Church is considering as many as 80 future sites that could be announced within the next 15 years. That works out to a rough average of 5 per year every year between now and 2032, not including those 5 that were announced earlier this year. This means that we will likely have a few temples announced during each General Conference and that we will also from time to time have one or two announced in the six months between each conference. Because President Monson will not be participating in General Conference at all, if any new temples are announced, one of his counselors will be authorized to make that announcement in his behalf. I could see that happening at either the beginning of the Saturday Morning or Sunday Morning Sessions. Just wanted to note that.

3+ temples announced in any of the following locations:
NOTE: After thinking further about those temples I feel are most likely in the near future, I first narrowed down then expanded, then revised these selections again. I am again listing them by the geographical area of the Church under which they fall and then by likelihood within each of those areas. As always, these are nothing more than my own thoughts, backed up by either research or the opinions of others I have trusted in this matter. The Lord decides where He needs His temples to be built, and those decisions are manifested to those authorized to receive such revelation (the prophet, or, in our current situation, those authorized to represent him in so determining).

Africa Southeast: Antananarivo Madagascar; Maputo Mozambique; Lubumbashi DR Congo; Cape Town South Africa
Africa West: Benin City/Lagos Nigeria; Kumasi Ghana; Freetown Sierra Leone; Yamoussoukro Ivory Coast; Monrovia Liberia
Asia: Phomn Penh Cambodia; Jakarta Indonesia; Taichung Taiwan; Ulaanbaatar Mongolia; Singapore; Hyderabad/Rajahmundry India
Brazil: Belo Horizonte; Salvador
Caribbean: San Juan Puerto Rico
Central America: Managua Nicaragua; San Pedro Sula Honduras; Guatemala City Guatemala (2nd temple)
Europe: Praia Cape Verde; Budapest Hungary; Vienna Austria; Edinburgh Scotland
Mexico: Puebla; Queretaro
North America Central: Missoula Montana; Green Bay Wisconsin; Rapid City South Dakota
North America Northeast: Richmond Virginia
North America Northwest: Salem Oregon
North America Southeast: Bentonville Arkansas
North America Southwest: Fort Worth Texas; Flagstaff Arizona; Henderson Nevada
Pacific: Auckland New Zealand; Port Moresby Papua New Guinea; Pago Pago American Samoa; Neiafu Vava'u Tonga
Philippines: Davao/Cagayan de Oro
South America Northwest: Maracaibo Venezuela; Santa Cruz/La Paz Bolivia; Iquitos Peru
South America South: Valparaiso Chile; Neuquen Argentina
Utah North: Layton Utah
Utah Salt Lake: Tooele Utah
Utah South: Heber City Utah

Notes about potential temple sites:
1.         For the Africa Southeast Area, the first two possibilities listed seem to be the most likely ones. With the growth of the Church in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a second temple seems imminent, even without knowing how the one that will be dedicated in Kinshasa will affect any potential future temples. While Elder Neil L. Andersen proposed a temple for the Kasai region, Lubumbashi seems more likely. And I have felt certain that South Africa could get a third temple, and that Cape Town is the most likely city to next get one. As always, I will pass any new information along as I become aware of it.
2.         Regarding the Africa West Area, the LDS Church growth blog reports that, if current growth trends continue, that area could have 13 temples by the year 2030. Along with that, we know that there are two dedicated and one announced in that area already. In the Africa West Area, second temples for Ghana and Nigeria seem likely, especially now that all Nigerian cities have been reached by the Church. The one thing I have not been able to settle through my research is whether Lagos or Benin City is more likely. I could see temples in both cities within the next 15-30 years. And Sierra Leone may also get a temple soon simply by virtue of being so far distant from the temple district under which it falls. Additionally, Sierra Leone comes in at #6 of the top ten countries/dependencies with the strongest LDS presence but without a temple, making a temple there likely sooner rather than later. I have also heard some say that a second and possibly a third Ivory Coast temple may be announced within the next 10-15 years depending on how quickly the first one progresses. And it may be high time for a temple in Liberia as well.
3.         While I was double-checking for additional temple sites, I quickly figured out that Asia could be a great candidate for several new temples, and these are the most likely locations that I could find. While all of them make sense in terms of President Monson’s desire to have every Church member within 200 miles of a temple, I have grouped them by the number of Church units. Additionally, I know that temples have been proposed for New Delhi India (in 1992 by Elder Maxwell) and for Singapore (in 2000 by President Hinckley). Church membership in those countries stand as follows: Cambodia: nearing 14,000; India: just over 13,000; Mongolia: nearing 11,500; Indonesia: nearing 7,300; Singapore: nearing 8,400. According to a statistical profile written by a Church Growth expert, India may not actually get a temple until there is a stronger Church presence to support. For now, it seems that the order I have placed them in may be the most likely order by which they might be announced. On July 28, I added one for Taichung Taiwan, since further research indicates Taiwan may be ready for a second temple. As more information comes to light, I will make any adjustments that might be necessary.
4.         In Brazil, the two cities above seem to be the most imminent possibilities. It would also not surprise me at all if the Church held off on announcing any other Brazilian temples until the two under construction and the other two announced ones are closer to completion. As I have mentioned previously, I had felt prior to General Conference last April that Brazil's next temple would be built in Brasilia, but didn't think it would be announced until the one in Belem made more progress. So more Brazilian temples may be announced soon, but they also might not. Once more is known, I will make any adjustments needed. Many people who have given me feedback on my temple possibilities have stated that they think it might be possible for us to perhaps see the two temples mentioned above announced at the same time. And that certainly makes sense. In the event that the two are not announced simultaneously, they may be announced in close proximity.
5.         Central America may be needing several new temples, based on what my research shows. Then-Elder Nelson proposed a temple for Managua in 2012, and I recently learned that land has been set aside for such a temple for several years. Additional research done on July 28, 2017 showed that temples could be needed in the other cities listed in the Central America Area, and they are listed in order of likelihood for that to happen.
6.         While I said when posting my last list of possibilities that any new European temples might be put on hold until the Church evaluates how the dedications of the Paris France and Rome Italy Temples and the rededications of the temples in Freiberg and Frankfurt Germany have affected temple attendance for European Saints, in going over the current and future districts, I was reminded of a couple of things: First, Cape Verde is currently the 10th of the top ten countries that has the strongest LDS presence but that does not yet have a temple in any phase. I had also heard from several people that Budapest Hungary would be the next European temple. And Vienna Austria makes sense in terms of President Monson's expressed goal to have every member within 200 miles of a temple. Until more information is known, these additions seem to be sound.
7.      Of the many cities in Mexico, I know Puebla has been widely mentioned as the most likely site for the next temple in that nation. I have also felt at times that Queretaro could be a feasible possibility. If and when I feel I can narrow down or add new options, I will do so.
8.    While Church growth in the United States has stagnated somewhat of late, except in the “Mormon corridor” of Idaho, Utah, and Arizona, I have heard at one time or another that each of the temples I listed above could potentially be As part of my efforts to expand my predictions, I decided to include these cities again on this list. Until I know more about US growth, these seem to be sound changes. I also know, as I have previously noted, that land has been set aside in Bentonville Arkansas and Missoula Montana for future temple sites, with an official announcement anticipated once unit growth and activity in the current temple districts warrant that happening.
9.          In the Pacific, I know that the first two cities have been mentioned to me as having sites purchased, and once Church growth and temple activity from these areas warrant an official announcement for them, it will happen. Of the two, Auckland seems more likely. Additionally, Papua New Guinea is the second of the top 10 countries with the strongest LDS presence without a temple. American Samoa is the seventh on that list of top ten. Additionally, further study which I did in late July confirms that Tonga may get another temple.
10.       As a state that is constantly expanding its outreach, Utah has 18 temples either in operation or in various stages of construction. Layton and Tooele have often been mentioned to me by name as possibilities. I added Heber City in late July after a couple of comments led me to do so. Each of these seem likely. I also know that we are still waiting to have the Southwest Salt Lake Valley temple mentioned by President Hinckley announced at some point. Some have said that this temple has been announced already, but the research I have done proves otherwise.

Final note: As with everything else I put together, these are no more than my own thoughts, feelings, and observations based on the research I have done and the reports I have received. I hope that is absolutely understood and accepted. No one can know the mind of the Lord relating to His Church except those authorized to receive revelation regarding their own spheres of responsibility. While I am always gratified when my predictions turn out to be correct, I am even more appreciative of the many times developments do not take place as I project they will. At the end of the day, the Lord is the only one who can determine best how to further His work, and He manifests His will to those authorized to lead the Church and make decisions. Just wanted to end on that note.

RESULT: No new temples were announced.

88/147=60%


                                                                                                                          

Temple Construction Progress Updates

Hello, everyone! In light of significant progress on temples worldwide, I am providing an updated version of my temple construction progress report. It is wonderful to see temples making progress all around the world. Please enjoy reading these updates. Any comments are welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time, and may the Lord bless you all in all that you do.

Temple Construction Progress (current as of 10/4/17)

NOTE ABOUT FUTURE TEMPLE CONSTRUCTION: As referenced in previous versions of this report, Elder Larry Y. Wilson, the Temple Department Executive Director, stated in an interview given as the open house for the newly renovated Idaho Falls Idaho Temple got underway that the Church currently has around 80 sites under consideration for a subsequent announcement within the next 15 years. While some, if not at least a majority, of those 80 sites will make it to a subsequent announcement, it is significant to think about. That would put the number of temples in any phase at around 260 or so in 2032. It is not hard to believe, therefore, that whether or not the Church makes an official goal to do so, we could see a minimum of 200 temples dedicated by or before the bicentennial (200th ) anniversary of the restoration of the Church (which will take place on Saturday April 6, 2030). With the Church only having to announce 18 additional temples and to complete the other 25 in any phase, all it would take to reach that milestone is for 3-4 temples being dedicated in each one of the 12.50 years between now and then. Since the Church will be maintaining at least that average amount for the next 3 years at minimum, it appears to be very doable. For my part, I will be keeping my eyes open for any developments and will pass such news along as I hear of it.

CURRENT TEMPLE STATUS: The Church has 182 temples in various phases. There are 157 operating temples, with 2 that have had construction conclude (and are preparing for their open houses; one of which is accepting reservations for its open house, and the other, which will be doing so starting next Monday). There are additionally 9 others are in various phases of construction and 1 more that had a groundbreaking last year, (with full-scale construction anticipated to begin within the first six months of next year). 1 other has a groundbreaking scheduled (which will take place in just over a month’s time. Of the temples that have been, are now, and will shortly be undergoing renovations, we have 1 that has a rededication scheduled (for the middle of next year), while 3 others are undergoing renovation (1 of which has its’ completion anticipated in the middle or latter part of next year, 1 that closed on the last day of September, and 1 that closed on Monday October 2), and another 2 have had their closure dates set before the end of this month, in addition to 5 others that we know will be closing early next year (with closure dates having been announced for all but one). Additionally, there is 1 temple that has closed for restoration as a result of damage incurred by a natural disaster. The remaining 12 are announced (with either a site announcement or groundbreaking pending).

Construction completed, preparing for open house:
158. Meridian Idaho Temple: Accepting open house reservations (tours set to run for the three weeks between Saturday October 21 and Saturday November 11, except for the relevant Sundays); all furnishings in place; dedication scheduled for Sunday November 19, 2017.
159. Cedar City Utah Temple: Accepting open house reservations (tours set to run for the 22-day period spanning Friday October 27-Saturday November 18, except for the relevant Sundays); placing furnishings; dedication scheduled for Sunday December 10, 2017.

Under Construction (completion anticipated by the end of next year (2018)):
160. Rome Italy Temple: Installing art glass; scaffolding coming down from east tower; planting trees and shrubs; completion anticipated sometime during mid-to-late 2018.
NOTE: Given the changed completion time-frame for this temple, I have changed my estimate for the dedication window to Sunday August 12 or 19. Time will tell how likely that is, and I can then alter this estimate further as needed.
161. Concepcion Chile Temple: Angel Moroni on site awaiting installation; cladding progressing on east side of temple; installing exterior lighting; completion anticipated sometime during mid-to-late 2018.
NOTE: Since this temple has been on track in terms of its construction, even with the altered completion time-frame, I have still felt confident that this temple’s dedication could take place on Sunday September 9 or 16. As the next 7-10 months come and go, that can be altered as needed.
162. Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Temple: Roof felt underlayment in place; shingles being laid; preparing to clad steeple; completion anticipated sometime during mid-to-late 2018.
NOTE: In rethinking this temple’s probable dedication date, I have felt we could see that happen on Sunday November 11 or 18. As the next year comes and goes, we will know how likely that is to happen, and any further adjustments that may be needed can be made.
163.  Barranquilla Colombia Temple: Interior work underway; completion anticipated sometime during late 2018.
NOTE: In view of having to adjust the dedication dates for the other temples that will be completed during 2018, I have adjusted my estimate for this temple’s dedication to Sunday December 9 or 16. As the next year or so passes, we will know how likely that is, and any updates can be made that are needed.

Under construction, completion anticipated during 2019:  
164. Durban South Africa Temple: More concrete poured for baptismal font; backfilling temple foundation; polyurethane insulation applied to housing exterior walls; completion anticipated sometime during early 2019.
NOTE: Unless this temple’s construction is delayed, I could see a dedication happen in late April or early May. If something happens to change that dramatically, I will be sure to pass that information along.
165. Fortaleza Brazil Temple: Stone cladding underway; completion anticipated sometime during mid-2019.
NOTE: Even with the reported progress on this temple (noted above in red), I don’t see this temple’s dedication any sooner than early-to-mid June 2019. As without everything else, I will be sure to pass along any changes to this estimate.
166. Rio de Janeiro Brazil Temple: Foundation in place; font work underway; preparing to pour exterior walls; completion anticipated sometime during mid-to-late 2019.
NOTE: If this temple stays on track, I see no reason why it could not be completed in mid-August 2019. That will depend on how much it progresses between now and then. I will be keeping an eye open for developments in this regard and will pass those along.
167. Lisbon Portugal Temple: Pouring main floor walls; meetinghouse cladding progressing; completion anticipated sometime during late 2019.
NOTE: With what is known about the progress (and the lack thereof) that has been reported on this temple, I feel confident that a dedication will not happen any sooner than late October-early November 2019. As with everything else, I will be sure to pass along any changes to this estimate as I make them.
168. Arequipa Peru Temple: Second level walls poured; preparing for roof slab; completion anticipated sometime during late 2019-early 2020.
NOTE: Wanting to be as optimistic as I can, I am still not convinced that this temple will be completed before the end of 2019. Until more is known, I have felt to alter this temple’s completion time-frame to sometime in late April-early May 2020. I will be sure to pass along anything that changes my thinking on this.

Construction pending:
169. Winnipeg Manitoba Temple: Groundbreaking held Saturday December 3, 2016; plans being slightly modified; full-scale operations anticipated to begin in the first or second quarter of 2018; completion anticipated sometime between early-to-mid 2020.
NOTE: Once full-scale construction begins on this temple, we will know more about what to expect in terms of a completion estimate. But I don’t see this temple being dedicated any sooner than early-to-mid June 2020. I will pass along any changes to that once more is known.

Groundbreaking scheduled:
170. Port-au-Prince Haiti Temple: Ground being cleared; preparing for groundbreaking ceremony, which is scheduled for Saturday October 28, 2017; completion anticipated sometime during mid-to-late 2020.
NOTE: Assuming full-scale construction will be able to start on this temple the Monday after its groundbreaking, and assuming no delays, it is my estimate that this temple could be dedicated in late October-early November 2020. As this process gets underway, I will pass along any changes to that estimate.

Scheduled for rededication:
20. Jordan River Utah Temple: Closed for renovation; rededication scheduled for Sunday May 20, 2018.

Undergoing Renovation (rededication anticipated within the next year or so):
41. Frankfurt Germany Temple: Closed for renovation; roof slab poured for basement addition; rededication anticipated sometime during mid-to-late 2018.
NOTE: As promised, I reevaluated my estimate for this temple’s rededication. Having done so, I am of the opinion that we could see that happen after the first two new temples are dedicated in 2018, and before the final two new ones are dedicated. That puts my revised estimate for that event on either Sunday October 21 or 28. I will be sure to pass along any changes I make to that estimate within the next 9-12 months.

Undergoing Renovation (rededication anticipated sometime during 2019:
80. Memphis Tennessee Temple: Closed for renovation; rededication may take place sometime during early-to-mid 2019.
NOTE: This temple closed on the last Saturday of September 2017 (General Conference Saturday). While we do not yet know if any kind of expansion is planned for this temple, we do know that part of the process will be to change the interior and exterior appearance of it. With that in mind, as previously noted, a rough 18-month estimate seems appropriate, which would put this temple’s subsequent completion sometime during late April-early May 2019. As this process unfolds, I will be sure to pass along any changes to this estimate as this renovation continues.

Undergoing Renovation (completion anticipated sometime during 2020):
18. Tokyo Japan Temple: Closed for renovation; rededication may take place sometime during early-to-mid 2020.
NOTE: As previously noted, this temple closed for renovation today. And the stated purpose for this renovation is to upgrade electrical and mechanical systems. With that knowledge, added to the fact that this temple is a much smaller one from the Kimball era, it is easy to assume and to assert that a rededication could follow more towards the earlier part of 2020 than later on. As this process unfolds, I will pass along any changes to this line of thought and reasoning.

Renovations Scheduled (official closure dates announced):
95. Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple: Scheduled to close for renovation on Sunday October 15, 2017; rededication may take place sometime during early-to-mid 2019.
NOTE: While it is true that this temple has more room for expansion than Memphis does, it does not seemly likely that such an expansion is part of the plan. Therefore, a revised estimate of 15 months seems likely for the completion of that renovation process. Based on that time-frame, I am also estimating a subsequent rededication during mid-March 2019. As that process unfolds, I will pass along any changes to that line of reasoning.
112. Asuncion Paraguay Temple: Scheduled to close for renovation on Sunday October 29, 2017; rededication may take place sometime during early-to-mid 2019.
NOTE: The interesting thing about this temple’s renovation plans is that any mention of it closing on the date specified (or even at all in 2017) has been removed. Probably just a technical glitch. In the meantime, unless an expansion of this temple is planned (which is unlikely at this point), a 15-month estimate seems reasonable for this temple’s completion, which would put the dedication sometime during mid-to-late April 2019 (sometime after General Conference). That will likely change as this process continues, but for now, it seems safe.
68. Raleigh North Carolina Temple: Scheduled to close for renovation on Wednesday January 10, 2018; rededication may take place sometime during mid-2019.
NOTE: If the member contacts I found in North Carolina are correct, the renovation of that state’s only temple will not involve or include an expansion of any kind. With that in mind, a 17-month estimate seems appropriate for this temple, which allows for anything unexpected. And based on that estimate, it would make sense if this temple had a rededication scheduled for sometime during early-to-mid August 2019. I will pass along any updates to that estimate that may be needed within the next year as this process will be well underway by that time.
94. Baton Rouge Louisiana Temple: Scheduled to close for renovation on Thursday February 1, 2018; rededication may take place sometime during mid-to-late 2019.
NOTE: Unless an expansion is planned for this temple (which, as noted previously, seems doubtful), then it is more than likely that the renovation will only take around 17 months or so. With that in mind, it is not hard to believe that we could see the rededication of this temple at some point during mid-September 2019. As with everything else, I will be sure to pass along any updates to this line of reasoning.
13. Oakland California Temple: Scheduled to close for renovation on Monday February 19, 2018; rededication may take place sometime during mid-to-late 2019.
NOTE: As previously noted, the stated purpose for this temple’s renovation is to upgrade and update electrical and mechanical systems. Therefore, an expansion is likely not part of those plans. Bearing in mind that this temple is anticipated to be rededicated prior to the end of 2019, I have felt that a 17-month estimate for this process would be appropriate. In running the resulting calculation, that would put this temple’s rededication happening sometime during mid-December 2019. Obviously, as this renovation gets underway in five months and makes progress, we will know more about how reasonable that estimate might be, and I will make any adjustments that may be needed.
16. Washington D. C. Temple: Scheduled to close for renovation on Sunday March 4, 2018; rededication may take place sometime during mid-to-late 2020.
NOTE: With what is currently known about this temple’s renovation (having confirmed the exact date, and also knowing that it is mainly to upgrade and update the mechanical and electrical system), in taking the larger size of this temple into account (which will extend the process), a 32-month estimate seems appropriate. That would put this temple’s rededication sometime during mid-November 2020. As the next year unfolds, more will be known, and any adjustments will be provided.

Temples which have had a renovation announced but for which an exact closure date is not yet known:
7. Mesa Arizona Temple: Scheduled to close for renovation in May 2018 (exact date has not yet been announced); rededication may take place sometime during mid-to-late 2020.
NOTE: Because the Mesa temple has been renovated once before, it is not anticipated to take as long to complete this renovation (which is being done primarily to upgrade the electrical and mechanical systems throughout the temple). Therefore, an initial estimate of 26 months seems appropriate, which would put the estimate for this temple’s rededication somewhere around early-to-mid September 2020. Within the next year, this process will be well underway, and more will be known about any adjustments that may need to be made. Until then, it seems to be a sound adjustment to what I have previously stated.

Temple undergoing restoration (in view of damage incurred by a natural disaster):
97. Houston Texas Temple: Closed for restoration (following damage incurred by flooding); may take some time to fix everything, but it is not anticipated to be a lengthy process; rededication will not be needed, but a reopening is anticipated ASAP.

NOTE ON FUTURE GROUNDBREAKINGS: Until the prophet (or those he authorizes to do so in his behalf) announces a groundbreaking for any or all of these temples, the timeframes listed below reflect merely my own thoughts, theories, and conjectures, based on what is now known about how soon any of them might happen. I continue to hope and pray for news of other groundbreakings, but time will tell how imminent any of these events will be, and whether or not they will unfold as presented below. I am keeping an eye out for developments and will pass along any updates as I receive them, including any and all changes to these estimates. Until something more official comes out, this information should not be taken as gospel, as it will be consistently altered as developments change these estimates. And speaking personally, I will be just as happy if I am proven wrong on any of this as I will be if anything in this section is proven right. For me, the privilege has always been the opportunity to contribute to discussions in this regard.

Announced temples that may have a groundbreaking anytime between now and the end of 2018:
171. Lima Peru Los Olivos Temple: Planning and preliminary construction phase; awaiting official site announcement; groundbreaking could take place sometime during early-to-mid 2018.
NOTE: If the information I have received about this temple and its progress is correct, the year of preconstruction which the contractor for this temple mentioned was needed prior to its groundbreaking began in March 2017. If that proves to be the case, then a groundbreaking could easily take place in mid-March, which would allow that to happen prior to winter’s arrival in April. I am estimating more specifically that the exact date may be Saturday March 10 or 17. As with everything else, I will pass along any updates to this line of thought and reasoning as I make them.
172. Urdaneta Philippines Temple: Planning and approval phase; awaiting government approval and official site announcement; groundbreaking could take place sometime during mid-2018.
NOTE: With a potential site having been identified for this temple, if that is confirmed at any point prior to the end of this year, the groundbreaking for this temple will likely happen sooner rather than later, especially now that the delays that once prevented this temple’s construction progress are over. It is my revised estimate that this temple’s groundbreaking could take place in mid-to-late May, and, more specifically, on or around May 19 or 26. I have checked into weather conditions during that time, and it would work well then. As with everything else I post, I will be sure to pass along any updates to this estimate as I make them.
173. Harare Zimbabwe Temple: Planning phase; awaiting official site announcement; groundbreaking could take place during mid-2018.
NOTE: Despite the statement made by Africa Southeast Area President Kevin S. Hamilton (who said that this temple would likely have a site announcement and groundbreaking in relatively short order once 2017 began), the year is almost finished, and we are no closer to a change in this temple’s status than we were at the beginning of this year. Wanting to be as optimistic as possible but also to allow for anything unexpected, I am setting a revised estimate for this temple’s groundbreaking to take place in mid-June, and, more specifically, on either June 9 or 16. I will be sure to pass along any updates to this estimate that might be needed.
174. Bangkok Thailand Temple: Planning phase; awaiting official site announcement; groundbreaking may take place during mid-2018.
NOTE: As part of my ongoing efforts to research the potential order in which announced temples may have a groundbreaking, I took a look at this temple particularly. While it is true that we only have member speculation that an existing building will be reconstructed and repurposed (in the style of the Manhattan New York and Hong Kong China Temples), until we can be sure that this will not be the case, I have to go with what is known.  The Manhattan New York and Hong Kong China Temples both had a groundbreaking in a comparatively shorter amount of time than most other temples. So if the existing building will be repurposed, it seems safe to surmise that a groundbreaking could take place during early-to-mid August. I have set a more specific estimate for Saturday August 4 or 11. As with everything else, I will pass along any updates to this line of thought.
175. Abidjan Ivory Coast Temple: Planning phase; awaiting official site announcement; groundbreaking may take place sometime during mid-to-late 2018.
NOTE: I know that this temple has not yet had a site confirmed, but as I felt a need to reevaluate the likely order in which announced temples might have a groundbreaking, I have run the numbers to recalculate my estimate. I hope with all my heart that we will have a site confirmed for this temple within the next 9 months or so. If we do, I could see the Church setting the groundbreaking for this temple to take place sometime during mid-September, which would be either Saturday September 8 or 15. If nothing happens for this temple by the early months of next year, I will reevaluate things at that point.
176. Saratoga Springs Utah: Planning phase; awaiting official site announcement; groundbreaking may take place sometime during late 2018.
NOTE: As previously noted, while a site announcement is pending on this temple, if one is confirmed within the next 6-8 months, and if this temple conforms to the average time within which other Utah County temples have gone from announcement to groundbreaking, then I could see this temple having a groundbreaking sometime during late October or early November, or, more precisely, on either Saturday October 27 or November 3. I will be keeping an eye out for any developments and will be sure to pass those along.
177. Alabang Manila Temple: Planning phase; site confirmed; awaiting official name announcement; groundbreaking may take place sometime during late 2018.
NOTE: As with other temples in this section, I did more research on issues that would affect progress on this temple, primarily climate & temperature. Climate-wise, Manila has the same weather pretty much year-round. Therefore, it is my new estimate that the groundbreaking for this temple could take place in mid-December (which would be on Saturday December 9 or 16). If the groundbreakings for both of the Philippines temples are held during 2018, this would be the first time in Church history that two temples would simultaneously be under construction on that island nation. As always, I will be sure to pass along any updates to this line of thought and reasoning as I become aware of them.
178. Brasilia Brazil Temple: Planning phase; site inspected by Church engineers on June 21, 2017; groundbreaking may take place sometime during early 2019.
NOTE: As part of my massive ongoing efforts to revise my thoughts on the potential timeframe for future temple-related events, I took another look at this temple. What I found that led me to move other temples around today also led me to give this temple another look. And in that regard, I found out that, in terms of climate, the period from January to March is the best time to visit Brasilia. Bearing in mind that it would take a miracle to have this groundbreaking take place in six months, I have felt it wiser to adjust this temple’s groundbreaking estimate to early 2019, and have felt that a more specific time-frame may be mid-February. As with everything else, I will pass along any updates as I make them.
179. Quito Ecuador Temple: Planning phase; awaiting official site announcement; groundbreaking may take place during early-to-mid 2019.
NOTE: As I have felt a need to revisit the order in which announced temples may have a groundbreaking, for a revised determination on this temple, I took a look at temples in the region of Western South America (where this temple will rise). In that area (with the exception of the first Ecuadoran temple, which took over 14 years), the average time in which temples in that area went from site announcement to groundbreaking has been 2 years, 6 months. That said, this temple has not yet had a site confirmed. So I am setting a revised estimate for 3 years. I will therefore place my estimate for this groundbreaking as sometime during late April or early May 2019. As with everything else, I will be sure to post any changes to this theory.
180. Pocatello Idaho: Planning phase; awaiting site confirmation; groundbreaking may take place sometime during mid-2019.
NOTE: As I have done with other temples, I calculated the average time within which Idaho’s other temples have gone from announcement to groundbreaking. Based on that estimate, I have adjusted my thinking that this temple will have a groundbreaking at some point in mid-June 2019. That said, I recognize that temples within the “Mormon corridor” of Utah, Arizona, and Idaho have typically been able to get started faster than temples elsewhere within the US or any other nations. I will keep my eyes open for anything that convinces me to change this again, and will continue to pass that information along.
181. Nairobi Kenya Temple: Planning phase; awaiting official site announcement; media event held June 14, 2017; groundbreaking may take place sometime during mid-to-late 2019.
NOTE: As mentioned earlier, I took a look at the average time within which temples in Africa have gone from announcement to groundbreaking. And as a result of that double-check, I have revised my estimate for this groundbreaking as well. I can now see it happening in early-to-mid August. As with everything else, I will pass along any updates as I am made aware of them.
182. Belem Brazil Temple: Planning phase; awaiting official site announcement; groundbreaking may take place during late 2019.
NOTE: Since there has been no change on this temple’s status since its announcement 1.5 years ago, unless something changes, we may find that this temple is the last one of the current bunch to have a groundbreaking. I sincerely hope that is not the case, but want to play it safe. For that reason, I am estimating this temple will have a groundbreaking sometime during either late October or early November. I will keep my eye on things and let you all know if my thinking on this changes.

ADDITIONAL GENERAL NOTE: As noted above, Elder Larry Y. Wilson stated in an interview on the last day of April 2017 (as the Idaho Falls Temple Open House was underway) that the Church has 80 potential sites that are under consideration for an official announcement within the next 15 years. As previously noted, all of the last 12 temples that have been announced from January 2015 to now have seen that happen during April General Conference. So that may continue. But it is also true that such announcements can come any time the Church president or those authorized to do so in his behalf feel impressed to make them. Since 80 temples in 15 years averages out to 5 new announcements per year between now and sometime in 2032, we could be entering an era where a few are announced in each conference and when some will be announced in between each April and October. Future versions of this report will feature any and all ongoing developments in this regard. Stay tuned for that, and thank you for the privilege of your time.

Key:
Bolded numbers and text denote temples whose numbers already exists (for renovations), or is certain due to a scheduled dedication, as well as information that is certain, such as dedication or groundbreaking dates.
Italicized numbers and text denote temples whose numbers may change based on the order in which future dedications and groundbreakings are scheduled.
Underlined numbers and text denote temples whose numbers may change based on progress towards planning, approval, and groundbreaking.

Red text highlights changes from the last posted temple progress report.

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

The reason I have postponed publishing the results of my General Conference predictions

Long-time followers of my blog know that in addition to posting my General Conference predictions every six months, I usually post after General Conference to share the results of those predictions and to give myself a percentage of accuracy on them. Generally that percentage falls between 60-80%. I still plan on doing that for this last conference. But between the sheer volume of Church and temple news that has needed to be shared more urgently, and because my wife and I have spent the last few days not feeling well, I have spent considerably more of my time over the last couple of days resting and regrouping. We are sure we will be fine. We have just needed a few days to focus on our recuperation. I will hopefully be able to get that up on this blog before too much longer. Thank you for understanding, and especially for your interest and support. Thanks as well, as always, for the privilege of your time, and may the Lord bless you all in all that you do.

Possible Table of Contents for the November 2017 Ensign

Hello again, everyone! As I usually do every six months, with the transcripts of the talks now available, I have taken the liberty of reading some of them, and, based on some information in the footnotes of those talks, I have put together a table showing my prediction for what the November 2017 Ensign Table of Contents might look like. According to earlier information shared by the Church at the time they announced the curriculum for 2018, the November Ensign will have 144 pages. General the May edition of the General  Conference Ensign has included 144 pages, and its November counterpart has generally only been 128 pages. But after putting this potential table of contents together, I can see why the Church has extended the November 2017 Ensign to 144 pages. Enjoy, and let me know your thoughts.

Possible Table of Contents for the November 2017 Ensign
Session
Page
Title
Speaker

2
Conference Summary for the 187th Semiannual General Conference


3
Indexes


4
Highlights from the 186th Semiannual General Conference

GW
8
Turn On Your Light
Sharon Eubank

11
Abiding in God and Repairing the Breach
Neill F. Marriott

14
Value beyond Measure
Joy D. Jones

17
Three Sisters
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
SAM
21
A Yearning for Home
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf

25
The Needs before Us
Bonnie L. Oscarson

28
The Plan and the Proclamation
Elder Dallin H. Oaks

32
“I Have a Work for Thee”
Elder John C. Pingree Jr.

34
The Living Bread Which Came Down from Heaven
Elder D. Todd Christofferson

38
Be Ye Therefore Perfect—Eventually
Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
SAA
42
The Sustaining of Church Officers
President Henry B. Eyring

44
Spiritual Eclipse
Elder Gary E. Stevenson

48
Repentance Is Always Positive
Stephen W. Owen

51
The Eternal Everyday
Elder Quentin L. Cook

54
By Divine Design
Elder Ronald A. Rasband

58
The Heart of the Widow
Elder O. Vincent Haleck

61
The Book of Mormon: What Would Your Life be Like Without It?
President Russell M. Nelson
SPH
65
The Priesthood and the Savior’s Atoning Power
Elder Dale G. Renlund

68
The Truth of All Things
Elder David F. Evans

75
Earning the Trust of the Lord and Your Family
Elder Richard J. Maynes

78
Bearers of Heavenly Light
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf

81
The Lord Leads His Church
President Henry B. Eyring
SUM
85
That Your Joy Might Be Full
Jean B. Bingham

88
Has the Day of Miracles Ceased?
Elder Donald L. Hallstrom

91
Exceeding Great & Precious Promises
Elder David A. Bednar

95
Turn to the Lord
Bishop W. Christopher Waddell

98
Lord, Wilt Thou Cause That My Eyes May Be Opened
Elder W. Craig Zwick

101
Fear Not To Do Good
President Henry B. Eyring
SUA
105
The Trek Continues!
Elder M. Russell Ballard

108
God’s Compelling Witness: The Book of Mormon
Tad R. Callister

111
Apart, but Still One
Elder Joni L. Koch

113
Do We Trust Him? Hard Is Good
Elder Stanley G. Ellis

116
Essential Truths—Our Need to Act
Elder Adilson de Paula Parrella

118
Seek Ye Out of the Best Books
Elder Ian S. Ardern

121
Love One Another as He Has Loved Us
Elder Jose L. Alonso

125
The Voice of the Lord
Elder Neil L. Andersen





72
General Authorities and General Officers of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints


129
Conference Story Index


130
News of the Church
130: Elder Robert D. Hales Passes Away
132: Report of General Conference
133: Juan A. Uceda/Patrick Kearon
134: Other Church News (Temple Update, etc.)


137
Come Follow Me—For Melchizedek Priesthood and Relief Society (Introduction to and Instructions for New Curriculum)


144
Last page of General Conference Ensign