October 2018 Apostolic Speaking Order Predictions: Part Two--Exploring Two Different Scenarios

Hello again, everyone! Having set the background in my previous post on the subject of the potential apostolic speaking order for the October 2018 General Conference, I am back to pass along two potential scenarios that I see as most likely regarding that subject. I will present each of those two scenarios and any pertinent information about my reason for favoring each in turn.I should preface this by noting that I will start with my favorite of the two, but that I fully intend to take you feedback into consideration. Let's get right into this discussion.

Scenario #1

	SAM	SAA	PH	SUM	SUA
Ballard	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Apr 2015	Oct 2016	Oct 2017*
Holland	Oct 2017	Apr 2017*	Oct 2016	Apr 2015	Apr 2018
Uchtdorf	Oct 2017 (FP)	Apr 2017 (FP; Church Officer Sustaining)*	Oct 2017 (FP; both)	Apr 2017 (FP)	Apr 2018
Bednar	Oct 2013*	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2016
Cook	Oct 2015	Oct 2017	Oct 2014	Apr 2016*	Apr 2018
Christofferson	Oct 2017	Oct 2016*	Apr 2018	Apr 2016	Apr 2017
Andersen	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Oct 2015	Apr 2013*	Oct 2017
Rasband	Apr 2014 (70 Pres)*	Oct 2017	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Oct 2016
Stevenson	Apr 2018	Oct 2017	Oct 2012 (PB)	Oct 2015	Apr 2017*
Renlund	Apr 2017	Apr 2018	Oct 2017	Oct 2015	Oct 2016*
Gong	N/A*	Oct 2010 (GA Seventy)	N/A	N/A	Apr 2018
Soares	Apr 2017 (70 Pres)	Apr 2012 (GA Seventy)*	Apr 2015 (70 Pres)	N/A	Apr 2018

Ballard	SUA1	SAM	Bednar (4 is 1)
Holland	SAA4		Gong (11 is 2)
Uchtdorf	SAA1		Rasband (8 is 3)
Bednar	SUA3	SAA	Christofferson (6 is 4)
Cook	SAM1		Soares (11 is 5)
Christofferson	SAA3		Uchtdorf (3 is 6)
Andersen	SUM2		Holland (2 is 7)
Rasband	SAM3	SUM	Andersen (7 is 8)
Stevenson	SAA2		Cook (5 is 9)
Renlund	SUA2	SUA	Ballard (1 is 10)
Gong	SAM2		Renlund (10 is 11)
Soares	SUM1		Stevenson (9 is 12)

Pertinent notes: I favor this scenario because it would enable Elder Bednar to speak in the Saturday Morning Session, and except for those Quorum members that last spoke in this session in other capacities (Elders Uchtdorf, Rasband, and Soares) and Elder Gong, who has not spoken in this session at all since his April 2010 call as a General Authority, Elder Bednar is the one Quorum member who has had the longest period go by since he last spoke in the session. Generally, the rotation for this session sees all 12 members speak within a period of 6 general conferences. Since Elder Bednar last spoke in this session 9 General Conferences ago, it seems to be a safe assumption that he will likely do so this go-round.

Additionally, another thing I like about this scenario is that the three speakers in the Sunday Afternoon Session all spoke in this session in different General Conferences, which has been a somewhat common occurrence for that session. And although I can see why the Church might prefer to have one of the two newest apostles speak in the Sunday Morning Session for the first time, this scenario would enable both new apostles to speak during the Saturday sessions after both spoke on Sunday last April.

My final argument in favor of this scenario is that I looked ahead to what might happen in future General Conferences if this scenario occurs, and, compared to the other scenario, this one did not create nearly as many potential problems for future General Conferences. This concludes my notes on scenario #1.

Scenario #2

	SAM	SAA	PH	SUM	SUA
Ballard	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Apr 2015	Oct 2016	Oct 2017*
Holland	Oct 2017	Apr 2017*	Oct 2016	Apr 2015	Apr 2018
Uchtdorf	Oct 2017 (FP)	Apr 2017 (FP; Church Officer Sustaining)*	Oct 2017 (FP; both)	Apr 2017 (FP)	Apr 2018
Bednar	Oct 2013	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2016*
Cook	Oct 2015*	Oct 2017	Oct 2014	Apr 2016	Apr 2018
Christofferson	Oct 2017	Oct 2016*	Apr 2018	Apr 2016	Apr 2017
Andersen	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Oct 2015	Apr 2013*	Oct 2017
Rasband	Apr 2014 (70 Pres)*	Oct 2017	Apr 2018	Apr 2017	Oct 2016
Stevenson	Apr 2018	Oct 2017*	Oct 2012 (PB)	Oct 2015	Apr 2017
Renlund	Apr 2017	Apr 2018	Oct 2017	Oct 2015	Oct 2016*
Gong	N/A*	Oct 2010 (GA Seventy)	N/A	N/A	Apr 2018
Soares	Apr 2017 (70 Pres)	Apr 2012 (GA Seventy)	Apr 2015 (70 Pres)	N/A*	Apr 2018

Ballard	SUA1	SAM	Cook (5 is 1)
Holland	SAA4		Gong (11 is 2)
Uchtdorf	SAA1		Rasband (8 is 3)
Bednar	SUA3	SAA	Uchtdorf (3 is 4)
Cook	SAM1		Stevenson (8 is 5)
Christofferson	SAA3		Christofferson (6 is 6)
Andersen	SUM2		Holland (2 is 7)
Rasband	SAM3	SUM	Soares (12 is 8)
Stevenson	SAA2		Andersen (7 is 9)
Renlund	SUA2	SUA	Ballard (1 is 10)
Gong	SAM2		Renlund (10 is 11)
Soares	SUM1		Bednar (4 is 12)

Pertinent notes: This scenario is good in that it allows our three international apostles to speak in three separate sessions. I also like the fact that this scenario allows the five apostles who spoke in the Sunday Afternoon Session to be split up further than they were with the other scenario. I also like the fact that this scenario features one of the two new apostles speaking in the Sunday Morning Session (which neither has done yet), and I likewise appreciate that this scenario features all three of the Quorum members called in October 2015 speaking in different sessions.

Although it is not uncommon for seatmates in the apostleship to speak in the same session (which happens a lot), there is only one set of apostolic seatmates speaking in the same session in this scenario. A few downsides of this scenario are that Elder Bednar would have to wait until April 2019 at earliest for his next opportunity to speak in the Saturday Morning Session, which he has not done in the last 5 years.

Also, two of the three apostles in the Sunday Afternoon Session in this scenario (Elders Bednar and Renlund) spoke together in this same session in October 2016, and they also spoke together again in the Saturday Afternoon Session last April. Although it is not uncommon for two Quorum members to speak in the same session for two or more conferences in a row, the general rotation has seen Quorum members more spread out than that (meaning that if two apostles speak in the same session one conference, they are more likely to speak in different sessions in the next General Conference.

Now, if I may, some general observations about identical elements in both scenarios. Unless the First Presidency does wind up assigning one of the apostles to speak during the Women's Session (which is not out of the question or impossible), then that will most likely result in only two Quorum members speaking in the Saturday Morning Session.

Next, although it is a general rule that two apostolic seatmates do not generally speak in the same session more than one General Conference in a row, there have been exceptions to that. And in all of the many test scenarios I ran in preparation for posting on this subject, the scenarios that worked most effectively were these two, which both feature Elders Holland and Uchtdorf speaking during the Saturday Afternoon Session.

Other similar elements between the two scenarios are the fact that, in both, Elders Gong and Rasband speak during the Saturday Morning Session, Elder Christofferson (who has not spoken in the Saturday Afternoon Session within the two years previous to October 2018) would have the chance to do so here, Elder Andersen will speak in the Sunday Morning Session, since he last did so in April 2013 (and it is rare for a member of the Quorum of the Twelve to have not spoken in any given session within a four-year period, the Priesthood Session being the exception for obvious reasons). And finally, both scenarios see Elders Ballard and Renlund speaking during the Sunday Afternoon Session.

Now that I have presented my thoughts about the merits and downsides of both scenarios, I look forward to hearing from you all about which of the two scenarios you might prefer, or if I have overlooked or failed to consider anything in putting the two together. I will take such feedback into account when finalizing my predictions for the October 2018 General Conference, and I welcome comments on this issue until the week before the conference begins. Your feedback is, as always, welcome and appreciated.

That does it for this post. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

October 2018 Apostolic Speaking Order Predictions: Part One--Preface and History in Recent General Conferences

Hello again, everyone! Although there have been a few significant Church news stories that I have felt deserve mentions on this blog in the last few days, I have not been able to post about those in view of some minor health issues that have slowed me down. Nothing too serious, thank goodness. We found out that my iron levels are currently deficient, and that the kind of deficiency I have would not be effectively treated by iron supplements, so we are in the process of getting approval from my insurance for an infusion. Hopefully that approval will be granted within the next week or less. But the lack of energy I have dealt with as a result of that deficiency is the reason I have not posted any new content in the last five days.

It is time to remedy that situation. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I have been working on refining my predictions for the October 2018 General Conference. Although that conference is still around four months away, I am continuing those efforts.

I am posting this now to request comments on the most likely potential speaking order for members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. I have determined to split this subject into two posts. In this first one, I will set the background for what has molded my thoughts on this subject, and in the second, I will be presenting a couple of scenarios that seem most likely to occur for the next General Conference.

As I mentioned previously, there have been patterns in recent years to the rotation by which the 12 men in that Quorum have spoken in the five general sessions of conference. It has typically been tradition that 2 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles will speak in both of the morning sessions, with 4 on Saturday Afternoon, 1 during the Priesthood Session, and the final 3 on Sunday Afternoon. But there have been a handful of exceptions to that rotation recently.

This has been especially true for the General Conferences in October 2015 and April 2018, when we saw 3 and 2 new apostles respectively announced. To preface my observations about what could occur for the October 2018 General Conference, I will be discussing the 7 General Conferences from April 2015 to April 2018.

And I will approach this discussion in a rather unique way.Since my intent is to determine how many apostles might speak in each of the five general sessions for October 2018, I will be giving a brief rundown by session of how many apostles spoke. That may sound confusing at first, but you will see what I mean.

We start with the Saturday Morning Session. In 4 of the 7 relevant General Conferences, we have seen two members of the Quorum of the Twelve speak. The 3 exceptions to that were April 2015, October 2017, and April 2018. Whether or not the October 2018 General Conference is regular or an exception in terms of this session will likely depend on whether or not any members of the Quorum of the Twelve speak during the Women's Session. Right now, I am assuming that will not be the case, but I could be wrong. With that in mind, I have felt that we will likely see 3 members of that Quorum speak during the Saturday Morning Session.

We now move on to the Saturday Afternoon Session. Again here, 4 of the 7 General Conferences saw 4 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speak during that session. For 2 of the remaining 3, 3 apostles spoke during the Saturday Afternoon Session. The one real exception for this session was the April 2018 General Conference, in which only 2 members of the Quorum spoke during that session.

For the Priesthood Session, 6 of the 7 saw 1 member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speak. The one exception to that was last April, when 2 Quorum members spoke. That may not be a determining factor for the October 2018 General Conference, unless the First Presidency assigns one Quorum member to speak during the Women's Session. It will be interesting to see what happens in that regard.

Regarding the Sunday Morning Session, although 2 Quorum members have typically spoken, 4 of the last 7 General Conferences have been atypical in that regard. Due to the calls of 3 new apostles in October 2015, 4 members of the Quorum (including one veteran apostle) spoke. In April 2015 and October 2017, the absence of 1 apostle due to ill health resulted in only 1 Quorum member speaking during that session. And last General Conference, in view of the different format, no members of the Quorum of the Twelve were asked to speak on Sunday Morning.

Quick sidenote here: That last exception was likely due to the different format because of the announced changes in policy, the call of two new Quorum members, and to allow the entire First Presidency to speak on Sunday Morning. For that reason, I have felt confident that the October 2018 General Conference will see the typical 2 members speak during the Sunday Morning Session.

That brings us to the Sunday Afternoon Session. In 4 of the 7 General Conferences, the typical final 3 Quorum members spoke in that final session. In 2 others (October 2015 and October 2017). As was the case for other sessions mentioned above, the April 2018 General Conference was a huge exception to the rule of 3 Quorum members speaking.

For the first time that I can recall, we heard from almost half of the 12 Quorum members (5 total) in a single session. Again, that was more due to the policy announcements, the entire First Presidency speaking during the Sunday Morning Session, and the fact that two new Quorum members were called. I fully anticipate that, barring anything unexpected, we will hear from the final 3 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles in October.

This concludes the first part of my coverage of this subject, so that does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.