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Tuesday, May 29, 2018

October 2018 Apostolic Speaking Order Predictions: Part Two--Exploring Two Different Scenarios

Hello again, everyone! Having set the background in my previous post on the subject of the potential apostolic speaking order for the October 2018 General Conference, I am back to pass along two potential scenarios that I see as most likely regarding that subject. I will present each of those two scenarios and any pertinent information about my reason for favoring each in turn.I should preface this by noting that I will start with my favorite of the two, but that I fully intend to take you feedback into consideration. Let's get right into this discussion.

Scenario #1

SAM
SAA
PH
SUM
SUA
Ballard
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Apr 2015
Oct 2016
Oct 2017*
Holland
Oct 2017
Apr 2017*
Oct 2016
Apr 2015
Apr 2018
Uchtdorf
Oct 2017 (FP)
Apr 2017 (FP; Church Officer Sustaining)*
Oct 2017 (FP; both)
Apr 2017 (FP)
Apr 2018
Bednar
Oct 2013*
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Oct 2017
Oct 2016
Cook
Oct 2015
Oct 2017
Oct 2014
Apr 2016*
Apr 2018
Christofferson
Oct 2017
Oct 2016*
Apr 2018
Apr 2016
Apr 2017
Andersen
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Oct 2015
Apr 2013*
Oct 2017
Rasband
Apr 2014 (70 Pres)*
Oct 2017
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Oct 2016
Stevenson
Apr 2018
Oct 2017
Oct 2012 (PB)
Oct 2015
Apr 2017*
Renlund
Apr 2017
Apr 2018
Oct 2017
Oct 2015
Oct 2016*
Gong
N/A*
Oct 2010 (GA Seventy)
N/A
N/A
Apr 2018
Soares
Apr 2017 (70 Pres)
Apr 2012 (GA Seventy)*
Apr 2015 (70 Pres)
N/A
Apr 2018

Ballard
SUA1
SAM
Bednar (4 is 1)
Holland
SAA4

Gong (11 is 2)
Uchtdorf
SAA1

Rasband (8 is 3)
Bednar
SUA3
SAA
Christofferson (6 is 4)
Cook
SAM1

Soares (11 is 5)
Christofferson
SAA3

Uchtdorf (3 is 6)
Andersen
SUM2

Holland (2 is 7)
Rasband
SAM3
SUM
Andersen (7 is 8)
Stevenson
SAA2

Cook (5 is 9)
Renlund
SUA2
SUA
Ballard (1 is 10)
Gong
SAM2

Renlund (10 is 11)
Soares
SUM1

Stevenson (9 is 12)


Pertinent notes: I favor this scenario because it would enable Elder Bednar to speak in the Saturday Morning Session, and except for those Quorum members that last spoke in this session in other capacities (Elders Uchtdorf, Rasband, and Soares) and Elder Gong, who has not spoken in this session at all since his April 2010 call as a General Authority, Elder Bednar is the one Quorum member who has had the longest period go by since he last spoke in the session. Generally, the rotation for this session sees all 12 members speak within a period of 6 general conferences. Since Elder Bednar last spoke in this session 9 General Conferences ago, it seems to be a safe assumption that he will likely do so this go-round.

Additionally, another thing I like about this scenario is that the three speakers in the Sunday Afternoon Session all spoke in this session in different General Conferences, which has been a somewhat common occurrence for that session. And although I can see why the Church might prefer to have one of the two newest apostles speak in the Sunday Morning Session for the first time, this scenario would enable both new apostles to speak during the Saturday sessions after both spoke on Sunday last April.

My final argument in favor of this scenario is that I looked ahead to what might happen in future General Conferences if this scenario occurs, and, compared to the other scenario, this one did not create nearly as many potential problems for future General Conferences. This concludes my notes on scenario #1.

Scenario #2

SAM
SAA
PH
SUM
SUA
Ballard
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Apr 2015
Oct 2016
Oct 2017*
Holland
Oct 2017
Apr 2017*
Oct 2016
Apr 2015
Apr 2018
Uchtdorf
Oct 2017 (FP)
Apr 2017 (FP; Church Officer Sustaining)*
Oct 2017 (FP; both)
Apr 2017 (FP)
Apr 2018
Bednar
Oct 2013
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Oct 2017
Oct 2016*
Cook
Oct 2015*
Oct 2017
Oct 2014
Apr 2016
Apr 2018
Christofferson
Oct 2017
Oct 2016*
Apr 2018
Apr 2016
Apr 2017
Andersen
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Oct 2015
Apr 2013*
Oct 2017
Rasband
Apr 2014 (70 Pres)*
Oct 2017
Apr 2018
Apr 2017
Oct 2016
Stevenson
Apr 2018
Oct 2017*
Oct 2012 (PB)
Oct 2015
Apr 2017
Renlund
Apr 2017
Apr 2018
Oct 2017
Oct 2015
Oct 2016*
Gong
N/A*
Oct 2010 (GA Seventy)
N/A
N/A
Apr 2018
Soares
Apr 2017 (70 Pres)
Apr 2012 (GA Seventy)
Apr 2015 (70 Pres)
N/A*
Apr 2018


Ballard
SUA1
SAM
Cook (5 is 1)
Holland
SAA4

Gong (11 is 2)
Uchtdorf
SAA1

Rasband (8 is 3)
Bednar
SUA3
SAA
Uchtdorf (3 is 4)
Cook
SAM1

Stevenson (8 is 5)
Christofferson
SAA3

Christofferson (6 is 6)
Andersen
SUM2

Holland (2 is 7)
Rasband
SAM3
SUM
Soares (12 is 8)
Stevenson
SAA2

Andersen (7 is 9)
Renlund
SUA2
SUA
Ballard (1 is 10)
Gong
SAM2

Renlund (10 is 11)
Soares
SUM1

Bednar (4 is 12)


Pertinent notes: This scenario is good in that it allows our three international apostles to speak in three separate sessions. I also like the fact that this scenario allows the five apostles who spoke in the Sunday Afternoon Session to be split up further than they were with the other scenario. I also like the fact that this scenario features one of the two new apostles speaking in the Sunday Morning Session (which neither has done yet), and I likewise appreciate that this scenario features all three of the Quorum members called in October 2015 speaking in different sessions.

Although it is not uncommon for seatmates in the apostleship to speak in the same session (which happens a lot), there is only one set of apostolic seatmates speaking in the same session in this scenario. A few downsides of this scenario are that Elder Bednar would have to wait until April 2019 at earliest for his next opportunity to speak in the Saturday Morning Session, which he has not done in the last 5 years.

Also, two of the three apostles in the Sunday Afternoon Session in this scenario (Elders Bednar and Renlund) spoke together in this same session in October 2016, and they also spoke together again in the Saturday Afternoon Session last April. Although it is not uncommon for two Quorum members to speak in the same session for two or more conferences in a row, the general rotation has seen Quorum members more spread out than that (meaning that if two apostles speak in the same session one conference, they are more likely to speak in different sessions in the next General Conference.

Now, if I may, some general observations about identical elements in both scenarios. Unless the First Presidency does wind up assigning one of the apostles to speak during the Women's Session (which is not out of the question or impossible), then that will most likely result in only two Quorum members speaking in the Saturday Morning Session.

Next, although it is a general rule that two apostolic seatmates do not generally speak in the same session more than one General Conference in a row, there have been exceptions to that. And in all of the many test scenarios I ran in preparation for posting on this subject, the scenarios that worked most effectively were these two, which both feature Elders Holland and Uchtdorf speaking during the Saturday Afternoon Session.

Other similar elements between the two scenarios are the fact that, in both, Elders Gong and Rasband speak during the Saturday Morning Session, Elder Christofferson (who has not spoken in the Saturday Afternoon Session within the two years previous to October 2018) would have the chance to do so here, Elder Andersen will speak in the Sunday Morning Session, since he last did so in April 2013 (and it is rare for a member of the Quorum of the Twelve to have not spoken in any given session within a four-year period, the Priesthood Session being the exception for obvious reasons). And finally, both scenarios see Elders Ballard and Renlund speaking during the Sunday Afternoon Session.

Now that I have presented my thoughts about the merits and downsides of both scenarios, I look forward to hearing from you all about which of the two scenarios you might prefer, or if I have overlooked or failed to consider anything in putting the two together. I will take such feedback into account when finalizing my predictions for the October 2018 General Conference, and I welcome comments on this issue until the week before the conference begins. Your feedback is, as always, welcome and appreciated.

That does it for this post. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.