Stokes Sounds Off: Requesting Feedback for Refinement of October 2018 General Conference Speaking Order Predictions

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Monday, May 21, 2018

Requesting Feedback for Refinement of October 2018 General Conference Speaking Order Predictions

Hello again, everyone! In an effort to refine my predictions for the potential speaking order of the October 2018 General Conference, I am posting a revised version of those predictions. These revisions have come as a result of study on my part. And I wanted to take this opportunity to solicit your feedback on the revisions. A few questions I considered in the process of those revisions were as follows:

1. It has typically been traditional for the counselors in the First Presidency to alternate being the last speaker during the Saturday Morning Session and the first speaker during the Sunday Morning Session. While there have been exceptions (such as last April), that has generally been the case. Will that prove correct this go-round?
2. In my opinion, President Oaks did an amazing job with the long list of releases and sustainings of area seventies last month. With that in mind, would it be fair to assume that President Eyring will continue to lead the sustaining vote in October, when comparatively less changes occur?
2. Will the Women's Session continue to be conducted by one of the three presidents of the female-led auxiliaries, or would that task be performed by a First Presidency member?
3. Would the entire First Presidency speak during the Women's Session every October, as they did for the Priesthood Session every conference before this upcoming one?
4. Would the First Presidency invite a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles and/or other male general authorities to speak during the Women's Session?
5. If we do not hear from a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles during the Women's Session, when would the Church fit in the last member of the Quorum of the Twelve?
5. How might the Women's Session being held in the spot tradtionally reserved for the Priesthood Session alter the number of general officers who speak to us in the other four sessions.
6. Would the Church continue to have just one member of the Presidency of the Seventy speak (as we saw last month) or will we hear from 2 members of that presidency, as has been traditional in recent years?
7. Is there anything I need to keep in mind when considering the number or names of the General Authority Seventies who might speak? I know that the last few Octobers have seen a pretty even blend of new GA Seventies that were called the previous April and veteran General Authorities speaking for the second or third time (if not more than that).

In the revised predictions I have put together, I have attempted to provide the best answers I can to these questions. That said, I recognize we are going to be in somewhat uncharted territory next conference, primarily because the Women's Session will be held in the slot that has typically been reserved for the Priesthood Session.

Those revised predictions follow below. So as not to disturb their flow, I will end here as I always do. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.


October 2018 General Conference Predictions[i]
Session
Conducting
Speakers
Saturday Morning
President Russell M. Nelson
President Russell M. Nelson


Elder Terence M. Vinson


Elder Quentin L. Cook


Elder Jack N. Gerard


Elder Gerrit W. Gong


Elder Walter F. Gonzalez


Elder Ronald A. Rasband


President Dallin H. Oaks
Saturday Afternoon
President Dallin H. Oaks
President Henry B. Eyring (Sustaining of Church Officers)


Elder Dieter F. Uchtdorf


Bishop Dean M. Davies


Elder Gary E. Stevenson


Elder D. Todd Christofferson


Elder Craig A. Cardon


Elder Juan Pablo Villar


Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
Women’s Session
Joy D. Jones
Cristina B. Franco


Michelle D. Craig


Jean B. Bingham


President Henry B. Eyring


President Dallin H. Oaks


President Russell M. Nelson
Sunday Morning
President Russell M. Nelson
President Henry B. Eyring


Bonnie H. Cordon


Elder Ulisses Soares


Elder Robert C. Gay


Elder Takashi Wada


Elder Neil L. Andersen


President Russell M. Nelson
Sunday Afternoon
President Henry B. Eyring
President M. Russell Ballard


Brian K. Ashton


Elder Mathias Held


Elder Dale G. Renlund


Elder Scott D. Whiting


Elder Paul B. Pieper


Elder David A. Bednar


President Russell M. Nelson



[i]Although General Conferences in the past 20 years or so have typically conformed to general patterns in terms of the traditional speaking order, there have been a handful of exceptions. The most recent of those, of course, occurred with the April 2018 General Conference, when a Solemn Assembly was held, two new apostles were called, and the announced changes in policy and practice resulted in a completely different speaking order format. And in view of the October 27, 2017 announcement that the Priesthood and Women’s sessions would both be held annually, with the former being held every April, and the latter every October, it is almost certain that this will necessitate additional alterations to the typical format. While it may be a year or two until we know what the “new traditional format” will look like, the predictions for the speaking order of this General Conference are molded by assumptions, which may or may not prove accurate. With that in mind, the thoughts below represent my best efforts to figure out how all of that might work. And until I have a better idea of what that will look like, I will, as previously noted, be allowing myself a very small margin of error.

3 comments:

  1. Just wanted to clarify that I am asking for feedback on the speaking order predictions above, which I will be accepting until the week before General Conference. If any of you reading this have any insight into the questions I asked above, or if you might be aware of something I have overlooked, I would like to know about it. Thanks again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Another thing that seems to have happened lately is that we may here from someone who is released during that conference.

    ReplyDelete
  3. You make a good point, Scott. As I noted elsewhere, I anticipate that the following Brethren will be granted emeritus status: Elders Mervyn B. Arnold, Craig A. Cardon, Larry J. Echo Hawk, C. Scott Grow, Allan F. Packer, Gregory A. Schwitzer, and Claudio D. Zivic. Of those 7, Elders Echo Hawk and Zivic spoke in April 2018, Elder Arnold last spoke in April 2016, Elder Cardon (who last spoke in April 2013) is among the speakers I predicted above, Elder Grow last spoke in April 2017, Elder Packer last spoke in October 2014 (and since that was just four years ago, it doesn't seem likely he will speak again this go-round, but I could be mistaken), and Elder Schwitzer last spoke in October 2015. So of those seven, it has seemed safe to assume that Elder Cardon will be the only one. That said, I know others may disagree, as is their prerogative to do. And the Church has been known to do the unexpected. But based on what I observed above (that the First Presidency typically rotates speaking assignments among the General Authority Seventies every 4.5-6 years), those who have spoken more recently than that may not do so again before their release. Thanks for your observations, Scott, and hope this information is helpful to you.

    ReplyDelete

In addition to my life-long love for the subjects which I cover in the posts of this blog, I have long held the belief that we can disagree without becoming disagreeable. Differences of opinion are natural, while being disagreeable in expressing those differences is not. And in that sense, I have no desire to close the door on anyone who earnestly desires to contribute to the ongoing dialogue on subjects covered in the posts on this blog.

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