Stokes Sounds Off: Initial Predictions for the April 2020 General Conference: Part Two—Prospective Church Leadership Changes and Statistical Report

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Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Initial Predictions for the April 2020 General Conference: Part Two—Prospective Church Leadership Changes and Statistical Report

Hello again, everyone! Part 2 of the 3-part series highlighting the initial version of my predictions for the April 2020 General Conference is here. As noted in my last post, this installment will explore prospective Church leadership changes and my initial estimates for the statistical report. As I noted, those estimates will be subject to change as more information is brought to my attention towards the end of this year. Without further ado, those two sections follow below. In order to not disturb the flow of that information, I will end here as I always do: That does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.


Predictions for Changes in General Church Leadership

Presidency of the Seventy: Elder L. Whitney Clayton released from the Presidency of the Seventy (to be effective August 1); new member of the Presidency of the Seventy sustained (also to be effective August 1)8.
Result:                
General Authority Seventies: New General Authority Seventies sustained from the current area seventies or the Church at large9. 
Result: 
Area Seventies: Releases and sustainings10.
Result:
Young Men General Presidency: Stephen W. Owen, Douglas D. Holmes, and Joseph M. Brough released as the Young Men General Presidency; new Young Men General Presidency called11.
Result:

Statistical Report, 2019 (corrected figures in parentheses)12
Stakes
3,440
Missions
399
Districts
522
Wards & Branches
30,608
Total Church Membership
16,548,462
Increase in Children of Record
99.967
Converts Baptized
226,984
Full-Time Missionaries
65,138
Church Service Missionaries
32,.673
Temples Dedicated during 2019 (Rome Italy, Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo, Fortaleza Brazil, Port-au-Prince Haiti, Lisbon Portugal, and Arequipa Peru)
6
Temples Rededicated during 2019 (Memphis Tennessee, Oklahoma City Oklahoma, Oakland California, Raleigh North Carolina, Frankfurt Germany, Asunción Paraguay, and Baton Rouge Louisiana)
7
Temples in Operation by the end of 2018
167

References—Part Two


8In April 2018, 3 changes in the Presidency of the Seventy that would be effective August 1 were sustained in advance. Since Elder Clayton, the current Senior President of the Seventy, will turn 70 in 2020, his release from the Presidency will likely become effective August 1, so his release and the sustaining of his replacement are likely to be presented for sustaining vote. Based on recent changes in that Presidency,  the new member may be someone who was born outside the United States, which would increase the internationally-born majority (currently 4 out of the 7 members were born outside the US).  
9It has been customary in recent years for any new General Authority Seventies to be sustained in April, so that is likely to occur again. 
10Since 2017, it has been customary for the Church to release less than 10 area seventies each April. Among those releases this go-round could be those called as GA Seventies, mission presidents, or temple presidents whose service could begin before the October General Conference, any current area seventies called to serve in the new Young Men General Presidency, or any called before April 2015 who have not yet been released. Although I anticipate only a few releases, I have compiled the following list of those who might be released, so as not to overlook anyone: Ruben Acosta, Frederick O. Akinbo, Vladimir N. Astashov, Jorge T. Becerra, M. T. Ben Davis,  E. Xavier Espinoza, Sam M. Galvez, Wisit Khanakham, Jose E. Maravilla, Adeynka J. Ojediran, Alexey V. Samaykin, Gordon H. Smith, and Kevin J. Worthen (who, as the current BYU-Provo President, if released as an area seventy, may be called as a General Authority Seventy).
11Since the current Young Men General Presidency has served together since April 2015, and since the standard call length for general officers of the Church has typically been 5 years, it would make sense if the current presidency was released during this General Conference, with a new General Presidency called. Past precedent indicates that the new presidency members could be comprised of one or more current General Authorities released to fill this new assignment, one or both of the outgoing counselors in the current Young Men General Presidency, either of the counselors in the Sunday School General Presidency, any member of the Sunday School or Young Men General Board, any current area seventies, or any men from the Church-at-large.
12In a continuation of the new tradition which began in April 2018, the Statistical Report will not be presented over-the-pulpit, but will instead be released on the Church’s official Newsroom directly following the Saturday Afternoon Session of this General Conference. 

2 comments:

  1. I expect a very dramatic change from the normal sequence of events for April General Conference. Instead of speakers, we may see some special video presentations. I also expect to see one or more speakers presenting from a location outside of Utah. Maybe even some extra events besides the normal 5 sessions of conference.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for stopping by to comment. I know a lot of people (myself included), anticipated that this General Conference would be markedly different in substance and in terms of the location(s) from which General Conference might be broadcast. While it is all right to entertain such thoughts, since offering such opinions myself, I found two relevant articles, one an opinion piece from Boyd Matheson for the Deseret News, and one from Sarah Jane Weaver, the Church News editor. I share those articles here in the hopes that it will demonstrate that the location(s) and special developments which some may anticipate occurring are not as important as what the focus will be in terms of the addresses given:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2019-10-06/boyd-matheson-wow-moments-must-be-followed-by-inspired-action-and-forward-movement-163589

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2019-10-20/general-conference-october-2019-president-nelson-bicentennial-164417

      And, as I have previously noted, if our focus on the hype surrounding why the April 2020 General Conference might be "unlike any other" detracts from our ability to follow President Nelson's counsel about how to properly prepare for it, we may be missing the mark, and will thus not be able to get all we can from the next General Conference, as President Nelson has expressed hope would be the case for every Church member. That said, I appreciate you taking time to comment. To whom may I offer thanks to for the comment above? THanks again.

      Delete

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