Stokes Sounds Off: UPDATE: Post-Conference Documents

Search This Blog

Top Leaderboard

Sunday, April 9, 2023

UPDATE: Post-Conference Documents

 Hello again, everyone! WA little over a week since the April 2023 General Conference convened, I wanted to share my post-conference document analysis. First, I wanted to provide a report on my predictions for General Conference. First up is the review of my predictions for the speaker lineup, the changes in general Church leadership, (and the statistical report), and, of course, the most likely;prospective temple locations. As a result of those predictions vs. what actually happened, I have taken the opportunity to analyze and score those predictions.

Some reminders on the scoring might be helpful. Regarding my projected speaker lineup, 3 points were awarded if I got the right speaker in the right position in the right session. Some examples of that are my correct predictions that President Dallin H. Oaks would conduct the Saturday Morning Session,and that Elder Gerrit W. Gong would speak in the exact spot he did in the same session. 

Two points were awarded if I got the right speaker in the right session but in the wrong position. Some examples of that were Eldeers Gary E. Stevenson and Quentin L. Cook,who both spoke in the first session, but not in the spots I projected. One point was awarded when I correctly predicted that a leader would speak at any point in the conference, but had them both in the wrong session and the wrong order in that session. 

Examples of that are Camille N. Johnson, who spoke Sunday Morning rather than Saturday Evening, and Elder Carl B. Cook, who spoke Saturday Morning rather than Sunday Morning. And of course, anything I had not predicted that occurred was given a score of 0. Examples of that are most of the GA Seventies who spoke. Regarding my predictions for changes in general Church leadership, each element was worth 3 points. 

I correctly protected new GA Seventies, changes in area seventies, and the Young Women General Presidency, and I was also correct about changes in the Young Men General Presidency. there were 3 points On the temple locations, 3 points meant I had the correct location exactly right (Jakarta Indonesia is an example), with 2 points for having the correct general region but the wrong specific location (one of the 2 Philippines temples was unexpected). 

1 point meant an unexpected announcement for states where I had predicted new temples. And there was a score of 0 for locations where I wasn't predicting a new temple, but one was announced (the temples in Missouri, Virginia, and Pennsylvania are examples). I gave myself a small margin of error on both the temple predictions and the speaker lineup since there were some things I couldn't have predicted.

So, as reflected in the scorecard, even though there was a lot about this conference that I had no way to predict, what I put together yielded a 58.6% accuracy rate, and with all of the unknowns, I'm satisfied with that. If that was all I had to pass along tonight, I'd be satisfied therewith, but I do have a few more items. As I usually do, I have also been able to compile a document showing the lengths of each apostolic address

I have likewise updated the document showing the total number of General Conference addresses given by each of our current apostles. And I have also created a mock-up of what I think the table of contents might look like for the May 2023 Liahona. I will be sure to provide a follow-up on how my mock-up table of contents compares with the actual thing once that is available.

I likewise continue to monitor all Church news updates and temple developments and will be sure to post here with the latest on that as I become aware thereof. Unless there is a good reason for the Church not to do so, I am fully expecting that the next major temple construction update from the Church will be published tomorrow during the 2:00 PM hour. You can count on my analysis thereof ASAP after that announcement is made.

In the meantime, that does it for now. Thank you for the privilege of your time.All comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as the offered feedback is made per the established guidelines. I hope any of you who would like to share anything will take your opportunity to “sound off” in the comments below. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

17 comments:

  1. Hello again, everyone! On this Monday, here are 2 reports courtesy of the Pacific Newsroom verifying the Saturday groundbreaking for the Port Vila Vanuatu Temple:

    https://news-pacific.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/groundbreaking-event-marks-beginning-of-construction-of-port-vila-vanuatu-temple

    https://news-pacific.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/why-the-port-vila-vanuatu-temple-matters

    And from the Church's global Newsroom and the Church News comes a report on the beginning of the open house for the Saratoga Springs Utah Temple:

    https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/saratoga-springs-utah-temple-begins-public-open-house

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/temples/2023/4/10/23676921/see-interior-exterior-photos-saratoga-springs-utah-temple

    A media day is being conducted today, with VIP tours following Tuesday-Thursday, and the public tours begin on Friday. I should add that I don't believe that the Port Vila reports and the reports on Saratoga Springs will be the only temple updates today. I fully anticipate another major temple construction announcement during the 2:00 PM hour this afternoon.

    Here is one more Church News report in the meantime:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2023/4/10/23674905/general-conference-april-2023-lds-church-statistical-reports-past-3-years-2020-2021-2022

    My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Church Newsroom's page showing major temple updates in 2023 has now added the April 2 report on the 15 temples announced by President Nelson. Additionally, the Newsroom release shares the new updates on the Saratoga Springs Utah and Port Vila Vanuatu Temples:

      https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/temple-news-house-of-the-lord-2023

      Since that news release has these updates, I am unsure whether any other major temple construction updates are coming down the pike today. Stay tuned here in case that changes. My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
    2. And here is one more Church News report:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2023/4/10/23674313/brazil-6-recent-donations-blood-solar-power-food-equipment

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
    3. And here is one new report from the Newsroom:

      https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/president-sister-oaks-to-speak-may-worldwide-devotional-for-young-adults

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
    4. The Church News has shared reports on the Port Vila Vanuatu Temple groundbreaking and the Oaks' upcoming address to young single adults:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/temples/2023/4/10/23677753/port-vila-vanuatu-temple-groundbreaking-president-prime-minister

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/4/10/23677800/president-dallin-h-oaks-2023-worldwide-devotional-for-young-adults-announcement

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
    5. Also, I was just made aware of the fact that I hadn't updated the permissions on my document showing the scoring for my predictions. Those have been updated now so that any of you who are interested in viewing that document should now be able to do so. My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
  2. On this Tuesday, the Church News has shared three new reports, each of which speaks for itself:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2023/4/11/23674602/miss-teen-philippines-hawaii-gathers-school-supplies

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2023/4/11/23677230/church-donation-kenya-drought-food-water-million

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/podcast/2023/4/11/23679043/episode-131-general-conference-april-2023-tabernacle-choir-10-international-singers

    My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Here is one more Church News update:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/4/11/23679247/elder-gong-byu-devotional-students-write-best-story

    My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
  4. On this Wednesday, the Newsroom has shared one new report, and 4 new updates have been provided courtesy of the Church News:

    https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/church-provides-donation-to-the-american-red-cross

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2023/4/12/23679046/armenia-belgium-finland-ghana-leaders-visit-church-headquarters-first-presidency

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/temples/2023/4/12/23679672/saratoga-springs-utah-temple-the-what-and-why-of-temple-media-days

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2023/4/12/23679274/mexico-humanitarian-aid-donations-shelter-wheelchairs-job-fair

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2023/4/12/23677880/michigan-football-andrew-gentry-jim-harbaugh-lds-ysa-mission-utah-faith

    My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Updated construction status reports have been noted in the last 24 hours have been noted for the Lima Peru Los Olivos, McAllen Texas, Red Cliffs Utah, and Willamette Valley Oregon Temples. Along with the update on the Red Cliffs Utah Temple, it has moved ahead in the queue of the Urdaneta Philippines Temple. The completion estimate for Red Cliffs is now listed as mid-2023, while the Urdaneta Philippines and Puebla Mexico Temples now share a completion estimate o mid-to-late 2023. Here are those updates:

    https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/lima-peru-los-olivos-temple/

    https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/mcallen-texas-temple/

    https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/red-cliffs-utah-temple/

    https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/willamette-valley-oregon-temple/

    Just a couple other thoughts. I still believe that the Church will have Elder Holland play a prominent role in the dedication of the Red Clifss Utah Temple and the rededication of the St/ George Utah Temple. So the Church may hold off on announcing either until he is able to return to full-time service in the next few months. Also, after a monthslong battle, the building permits have finally been approved for the Willamette Valley Oreong Temple.

    I will continue to monitor all temple costruction updates and reports from the Newsroom and the Church News. I anticipate that before the end of this week, the Church will be releasing the area leadership assignments for 2023. My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And the Newwsroom and the Church News shared a statement from Church spokesman Sam Penrod on the unexpected passing of a sister missionary from Guatemala who was serving in Honduras:

      https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/news-releases

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2023/4/12/23681078/sister-missionary-honduras-dies-complications-leukemia-lds

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
    2. Here is one additional Church News report:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2023/4/12/23663539/church-donation-millions-red-cross-cancer-sickle-cell-disease-patients-blood-drive

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete
  6. On this Thursday, the Church News has shared a few new reports:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/4/13/23679639/primary-president-susan-porter-children-ministry-japan-korea-xylophone-holy-ghost

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2023/4/13/23680924/familysearch-names-new-assistant-director-familysearch-library-debbie-gurtler

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/4/13/23679855/elder-andersen-provo-mtc-missionaries-no-end-to-those-you-help-repent

    My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Here is one new Church News report:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/4/13/23682283/video-elder-bednar-temple-building-called-to-zion

      And the Church News and the Newsroom shared coverage of President Nelson receiving the Ghandi-King-Mandela Peace Prize, of which he is the inaugural receiver. Prerecorded remarks from President Nelson accepting the award was shown. Several general Church leaders were in attendance at that induction. The event lauded the cooperative efforts between the NAACP, Morehouse College, and the Church, with featured speakers hinting at future collaborations between the Tabernacle Choir at Temple Square, the NAACP choir, and the Morehouse College choir:

      https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/the-prophet-receives-gandhi-king-mandela-peace-prize

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders/2023/4/13/23682815/president-nelson-gandhi-king-mandela-peace-prize-morehouse-college-atlanta-tabernacle-choir

      Other than these updates, I wanted to mention that I am somewhat surprised that the Church has not yet announced the 2023 changes in area leadership that will go into effect on August 1. Last year, that announcement occurred on Thursday, April 7, and in 2021, those changes were announced on Monday, April 19. It occurred to me to wonder if the Church will be splitting one or more areas.

      As I've mentioned in the recent past, according to Matthew Martinich, who maintains the Church Growth Blog, the next most likely next change would see Nigeria split off from the Africa West Area into its' own area. If that happens, it could be possible that the other nations in the current Africa West Area could split off into their own areas as well. Additionally, the current Asia Area is the largest geographical area in the Church, so at some point, some of the Southeastern Asian nations could split off from that area for easier administration.

      And the 6 North American area boundaries do not reflect the boundaries of US states and Canadian provinces and territories, and some of those areas are also rather large, so eventual changes in those area boundaries wouldn't shock me either. Aside from the creation of the Africa Central Area a couple of years ago and the creation of a third European area last year, the boundaries of the other 18 areas haven't been realigned at all since President Nelson became the prophet.

      Of course, it's also entirely likely that the Church simply just hasn't announced the area assignments yet and the announcement is forthcoming either way. But I'm hopeful that such an announcement could potentially come tomorrow or on any day next week (with the possible exception of Monday, when it seems likely that we will get the next major temple construction update). Stay tuned for updates on all of these fronts as such announcements are made. In the interim, thanks again, everyone!

      Delete
  7. On this Friday, the area leadership assignments for 2023-2024 have been announced:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/2023/4/14/23682335/2023-2024-area-presidency-assignments-announced

    I am working on my analysis of this announcement and will have it posted at some point this afternoon. My thanks once again to you all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Newsroom also published a copy of today's announcement:

      https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/first-presidency-announces-2023-area-leadership-assignments

      I have completed my analysis of these updates on two documents. The first shows the changes in area leadership by presidency and the second shows the assignment for each GA Seventy or area seventy in alphabetical order:

      https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_E85FX4BrvW8HM009Nb6N7yjbQPehK1GZ0hjgbkTJPE/edit?usp=sharing

      https://docs.google.com/document/d/1PJ842DulsZBsEXbnYulmCgQ-kCBxmphcrwGPpVgkIXI/edit?usp=sharing

      3 additional Church News reports, which were published earlier today,, speak for themselves:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2023/4/14/23683089/president-nelson-award-morehouse-college-what-attendees-said

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2023/4/14/23680898/primary-class-fifth-sunday-covenant-path-resources-come-follow-me

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/members/2023/4/14/23682428/joe-vuna-rugby-player-knee-injury-faith-perseverance-latter-day-saint-mission

      Delete
    2. Additionally, I have previously mentioned my running tally of new mission leader biographies for 2023. In the interim, I discovered I had missed one set of 16, so the count I've been offering has bee off by 16 mission leaders. The final count remaining was 5, and the Church News has shared the biographies of those 5 sets of mission leaders:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/callings/2023/4/14/23679037/new-leaders-of-5-missions-called-to-serve-from-california-to-cape-verde

      Each husband-and-wife mission leader set have served extensively in both individual and joint assignments in the Church. Most recently, among the 5 mission presidents, we have 2 former stake presidents (1 who currently serves as an Elders' Quorum instructor while the other is a young men adviser); 1 former stake presidency counselor; 1 Sunday School teacher who formerly served as a single-adult bishop; and 1 former member of the stake high council.

      And the one other Church News update I have is that the latest edition of "This Week on Social" was pulished:

      https://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2023/4/14/23682267/this-week-on-social-elder-bednar-tweets-moroni-7-41-president-johnson-posts-on-personal-revelation

      Featured in this edition were posts from Church President Russell M. Nelson; Elders David A. Bednar and Neil L. Andersen of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles; Relief Society General President Sister Camille N. Johnson and her respective First and Second Counselors, Sisters J Anette Dennis and Kristin M. Yee; Sister Michelle D. Craig, the outgoing First Counselor in the Young Women General Presidency; Sisters Amy A. Wright and Tracy Y. Browning, the respective First and Second Counselors in the Primary General Presidency (from the latter of whom two posts were shared).

      My thanks once again to you all.

      Delete

In addition to my life-long love for the subjects which I cover in the posts of this blog, I have long held the belief that we can disagree without becoming disagreeable. Differences of opinion are natural, while being disagreeable in expressing those differences is not. And in that sense, I have no desire to close the door on anyone who earnestly desires to contribute to the ongoing dialogue on subjects covered in the posts on this blog.

At the same time, however, I recognize that we live in a time when incivility, discourtesy, unkindness, and even cyber-bullying has regrettably become part of online interactions. With that in mind, while anyone who wishes can comment on anything if they choose to do so, I hereby reserve the right to immediately delete any comments which are critical, unkind, lack civility, or promote prodcuts, services, and values contrary to either the Church, or to the rules of online etiquette.

I'd also like to remind all who comment here that I try to respond personally to each individual comment as I feel is appropriate. Such replies are not meant to end the conversation, but to acknowledge earnest feedback as it is submitted.

And in order to better preserve the spirit and pure intentions for which this blog was established, I also hereby request that anyone not commenting with a regular user name (particularly those whose comments appear under the "Unknown" or "Anonymous" monikers, give the rest of us a name to work with in addressing any replies. If such individuals do not wish to disclose their actual given names, a pseudonym or nickname would suffice.

Any comments made by individuals who opt to not give a name by which they can ber identified may, depending on the substance and tone of such comments, be subject to deletion as well. I would respectfully ask that all of us do all we can to keep the dialogue positive, polite, and without malice or ill-will. May the Lord bless us all in our discussion of these important matters.