Stokes Sounds Off: UPDATED: April 2024 General Conference Predictions

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Tuesday, November 14, 2023

UPDATED: April 2024 General Conference Predictions

Hello again, everyone! Following President Ballard's death, I have once again updated my predictions for the April 2024 General Conference. The updates have been made to the projected speaker lineup and my projections for changes in general Church leadership. I will provide a brief overview of what I've changed. First, I think that President Nelson will personally present the new apostle. 

There is precedent for that. President Hinckley presented three of his four apostolic picks at the top of the Saturday Morning Session. President Monson similarly presented Elder Andersen in the same way. So that presentation and any other opening message from the prophet will likely open the next General Conference. I also took into consideration the fact that the first two new apostles called by President Nelson were the first two speakers in the final session, so I think that the new apostle will give brief remarks to open that same session this time around. 

If President Nelson does present the new apostle personally in the first session, it seems probable that his main address will be delivered to close the conference (at which point he will announce new temples), and that he thus won't also speak to conclude the Sunday Morning Session. So I have put President Oaks as the concluding speaker for that session. That in turn will allow two other members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles to speak during the final session.

With 3 apostles each speaking during the Saturday Afternoon, Sunday Morning, and Sunday Afternoon Sessions, and with my projection that President Holland will speak in the Saturday Evening Session, that means that the remaining two members of the Quorum of the Twelve will speak in the opening session. As far as the changes to general Church leadership are concerned, if the Church does call someone from within the ranks of the current general Church leadership, that in turn will affect whatever other changes may need to be made.

If the Church does stick to tradition and appoint a direct descendent of Hyrum Smith, as I noted previously, the top candidate in my view would be Brother Jan E. Newman, currently the Second Counselor in the Sunday School General Presidency. That wouldn't impact anything else but the Sunday School General Presidency, who will be released in August anyway, no other organizations will be impacted. But if President Nelson sticks to the current General Authorities to select the new apostle, then any impacted group would be subject to additional changes.

We know that, starting last year, the Church sustained in advance changes that would be effective on August 1. So if the new apostle is a current member of the Presidency of the Seventy, 1 GA Seventy will be called effective immediately to replace him, and 2 others will be named to begin their service on August 1 (replacing Elders Brent H. Nielson and Paul V. Johnson, who will be granted emeritus status on that date).

Likewise, if the new apostle is a GA Seventy, that GA Seventy will be released effective immediately, with the advanced presentation of the 8 GA Seventies who will be released and granted emeritus status on August 1. Similarly, if a current member of the Presiding Bishopric is called to the apostleship, there will be a change there. The other changes I anticipate in general Church leadership speak for themselves. And there are no changes noted in my estimates for the statistical report data.

Anyways, just wanted to provide that context to my documents. I also continue to monitor any and all Church News, Newsroom, and Church of Jesus Christ Temples updates and will be sure to pass word of those along to you all as they cross my radar. In the meantime, that does it for now. All comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated on any post at any time, as long as the offered feedback is made per the established guidelines. 

I hope any of you who would like to share anything will take your opportunity to “sound off” in the comments below. Please subscribe if you liked what you read here and would like to be informed of newly added posts and comments. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

9 comments:

  1. There were no direct descendants of Hyrum Smith in the 1st Presidency or the Quorum of 12 Apostles from 1845-1866 and from 1972-1985.

    Here is a question for you: Were there direct descendants of Hyrum Smith in the Quorum of the 12 Apostles when President Joseph F. Smith and President Joseph Fielding Smith were serving in the 1st Presidency as Counselors and later when they were the Prophet? Because it’s my understanding the 1st Presidency is a separate quorum of the Apostleship. If not, then there several times that the Quorum of 12 Apostles didn’t have a direct descendant of Hyrum Smith.

    President Joseph F. Smith was made an Apostle but wasn’t always in the Quorum of 12 Apostles. He was in the 1st Presidency under multiple Prophets for numerous yrs. 1st Counselor: 1866-1877
    2nd Counselor: 1880-1887
    2nd Counselor: 1889-1898
    1st/2nd Counselor: 1898-1901

    President Joseph Fielding Smith
    Counselor in 1st Presidency: 1965-1970
    Prophet: 1970-1972

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    1. During the first period you mentioned, George A. Smith, cousin to the Prophet Joseph Smith and his brother, was in the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. During the second period you mentioned, Bruce R. McConkie, son-in-law to Joseph Fielding Smith, served in that Quorum. Not direct-line descendents, but still very much connections to the direct line. During President Joseph F. Smith's time as prophet, his sons, Hyrum M. Smith and Joseph Fielding Smith, were called as apostles. During Joseph Fielding Smith's tenure, there were no other connections to the Smith family in the apostleship. But all First Presidency members are apostles, and they retain their seniority in the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles while serving. The senior member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles is always the President of the Church. The First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve Apostles are co-equal Quorums of the Church, and though their work is separate, they work in connection to one another, and their decisions are made jointly. If they were truly separate, then either the counselors in the First Presidency would never rejoin the Quroum on the death of the Church President or, when they did so, if the number in that Quorum exceeded 12, the two junior members would be dropped from the Quorum every time the counselors returned. And neither thing has ever happened. We know that because, when President Nelson described the events that transpired in the temple, he mentioned that all 12 of the other apostles ordained and set him apart, and that he made his choice of counselors from those same 12. So whether or not an apostle is in the First Presidency, that doesn't change his status as an apostolic Smith descendent (or someone with a sufficient connection to the Smith family to fit that qualification, as was the case with George A. Smith, George Albert Smith, and Bruce R. McConkie).

      I have been thinking about it a lot more, and the whole apostolic connnection to the Smith family thing may be more tradition than hard and fast rule. With that in mind, if President Nelson opts to honor the tradition, the pool may be limited currently to either Jan E. Newman, one of the sons of President Ballard, or some other unknown descedent of Hyrum Smith. But I don't think the prophet is under any obligation to honor it if it is merely tradition. And since Elder Bednar was the last non-General Authority to be called as an apostle, it does appear more likely to me now that the new apostle will be pulled from the current General Authorities. The only question is whom that might be. I may or may not offer my thoughts on that question in another post between now and the next General Conference. Stay tuned for that. And whomever you may be, I appreciate you commenting. I wish I knew who I was dealing with so I could thank you personally by name.

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  2. Forgot to add that Joseph F. Smith was Prophet from 1901-1918. But his sons were in the Quorum of 12 Apostles during that time.

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  3. An update has been provided on the Bacolod Philippines Temple. My thanks once again to you all.

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    1. On this Wednesday, the Church News has shared a few new updates. Elder Dieter F. Uchtdorf of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles spoke at Ensign College, where he also paid tribute to President M. Russell Ballard. Sister Andrea Munoz Spannaus, Second Counselor in the Young Women General Presidency, spoke at the Provo MTC. The Ivory Coast ambassador met with leaders at Church headquarters. And because President Ballard's funeral will be held in the Tabernacle at Temple Square on Friday, the Bells on Temple Square have canceled their holiday concert, which would have been held there on Friday and Saturday evenings. Temple updates will follow later today. My thanks once again to you all.

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    2. An update has been reported on the status of the Port Moresby Papua New Guinea Temple. My thanks once again to you all.

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    3. I just found this article from the Deseret News. It contains the following quote from President Nelson in tribute to President Ballard: "His commitment and his consecration were in his blood. Can you imagine? We had the privilege of sitting beside a man who is the great‑great‑grandson of Hyrum Smith. And Joseph Smith was his great‑great‑uncle. Every day, I feel a debt of gratitude for the privilege of associating with a direct descendant of those respected and revered leaders. He’s got that same integrity that they had."

      I don't know what (if anything) that might tell us in terms of the question of whether President Nelson would prioritize a pick that is another direct descendant of Hyrum Smith to keep that link, but I did find it interesting that his tribute to President Ballard would include that specifically. Thoughts?

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    4. On this day before President Ballard is laid to rest, Deseret News has shared this loving tribute in President Ballard's honor. Meanwhile, Church News editor Sister Sarah Jane Weaver used President Ballard's own words in tribute to and to find comfort in his passing. Church News staff writer Ryan Jensen has covered Elder Bednar's ministry in Mexico. And Mary Richards describes how trees, water, equipment, and other humanitarian aid are blessing lives in Africa.

      I just wanted to post something else here: I had written in a previous comment in another thread that I believed that Elders Holland and Uchtdorf, and President Nelson (if he is able to attend) or President Oaks (if the prophet can't be there) would likely be the apostolic speakers at tomorrow's funeral services. Thinking about it more deeply, I now believe his seatmate, Elder Holland, and his other longtime apostolic seatmate, President Oaks, may be the two, with the prophet also speaking, prerecording a message, or sending along something that will be read by President Oaks during his remarks. President Oaks sat by President Ballard for over 32 years before Presidents Nelson and Oaks were called to the First Presidency. If President Nelson is absent and President Oaks reads his message, then Elder Uchtdorf may also be asked to speak. It is also possible that the apostolic speakers may be whichever apostles helped the Ballard family make funeral arrangements. Just some additional thoughts, for whatever they may be worth. My thanks once again to you all.

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    5. And an update has been noted on the status of the Bengaluru India Temple. A long time ago, I had mentioned that I was uncertain if the Bengaluru India Temple would ever actually be completed or even open for usage, but the situation that led me to express those reservations has since been resolved. As just another note, something that will be reflected in the final temple construction progress update for 2023 (which will be posted here late on New Year's Eve) is a switch from general completion estimates to general dedication estimates. For example, the completion estimate for the Bengaluru India Temple is currently late 2025-early 2026. But with the Church of Jesus Christ Temples site now noting on each temple that "the open house and dedication generally take place several months after completion", my general estimated window for the dedication of that temple, as now reflected on my temple construction progress report, will be mid-to-late 2026. I hope both the general completion and my general dedication estimates for each temple will be able to be pushed up as time goes on, but we'll have to see on that. For now, my thanks once again to you all.

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