October 2017 General
Conference Predictions
NOTE ABOUT ANNOUNCEMENTS: Two significant developments have occurred that will no doubt change how and when temple announcements occur for the remainder of President Monson’s presidency. First, during the Idaho Falls Idaho Temple Open House, Elder Larry Y. Wilson, the Executive Director of the Church’s Temple Department, stated that the Church is considering as many as 80 future sites that could be announced within the next 15 years. That works out to a rough average of 5 per year every year between now and 2032, not including those 5 that were announced earlier this year. This means that we will likely have a few temples announced during each General Conference and that we will also from time to time have one or two announced in the six months between each conference. Because President Monson will not be participating in General Conference at all, if any new temples are announced, one of his counselors will be authorized to make that announcement in his behalf. I could see that happening at either the beginning of the Saturday Morning or Sunday Morning Sessions. Just wanted to note that.
3+ temples announced in any of the following locations:
After thinking further about those temples I feel are most likely in the near future, I first narrowed down then expanded, then revised these selections again. I am again listing them by the geographical area of the Church under which they fall and then by likelihood within each of those areas. As always, these are nothing more than my own thoughts, backed up by either research or the opinions of others I have trusted in this matter. The Lord decides where He needs His temples to be built, and those decisions are manifested to those authorized to receive such revelation (the prophet, or, in our current situation, those authorized to represent him in so determining).
Africa Southeast: Antananarivo Madagascar; Maputo Mozambique; Lubumbashi DR Congo; Cape Town South Africa
Africa West: Benin City/Lagos Nigeria; Kumasi Ghana; Freetown Sierra Leone; Yamoussoukro Ivory Coast; Monrovia Liberia
Asia: Phomn Penh Cambodia; Jakarta Indonesia; Taichung Taiwan; Ulaanbaatar Mongolia; Singapore; Hyderabad/Rajahmundry India
Brazil: Belo Horizonte; Salvador
Caribbean: San Juan Puerto Rico
Central America: Managua Nicaragua; San Pedro Sula Honduras; Guatemala City Guatemala (2nd temple)
Europe: Praia Cape Verde; Budapest Hungary; Vienna Austria; Edinburgh Scotland
Mexico: Puebla; Queretaro
North America Central: Missoula Montana; Green Bay Wisconsin; Rapid City South Dakota
North America Northeast: Richmond Virginia
North America Northwest: Salem Oregon
North America Southeast: Bentonville Arkansas
North America Southwest: Fort Worth Texas; Flagstaff Arizona; Henderson Nevada
Pacific: Auckland New Zealand; Port Moresby Papua New Guinea; Pago Pago American Samoa; Neiafu Vava'u Tonga
Philippines: Davao/Cagayan de Oro
South America Northwest: Maracaibo Venezuela; Santa Cruz/La Paz Bolivia; Iquitos Peru
South America South: Valparaiso Chile; Neuquen Argentina
Utah North: Layton Utah
Utah Salt Lake: Tooele Utah
Utah South: Heber City Utah
Notes about potential temple sites:
1. For the Africa Southeast Area, the first two possibilities listed seem to be the most likely ones. With the growth of the Church in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a second temple seems imminent, even without knowing how the one that will be dedicated in Kinshasa will affect any potential future temples. While Elder Neil L. Andersen proposed a temple for the Kasai region, Lubumbashi seems more likely. And I have felt certain that South Africa could get a third temple, and that Cape Town is the most likely city to next get one. As always, I will pass any new information along as I become aware of it.
2. Regarding the Africa West Area, the LDS Church growth blog reports that, if current growth trends continue, that area could have 13 temples by the year 2030. Along with that, we know that there are two dedicated and one announced in that area already. In the Africa West Area, second temples for Ghana and Nigeria seem likely, especially now that all Nigerian cities have been reached by the Church. The one thing I have not been able to settle through my research is whether Lagos or Benin City is more likely. I could see temples in both cities within the next 15-30 years. And Sierra Leone may also get a temple soon simply by virtue of being so far distant from the temple district under which it falls. Additionally, Sierra Leone comes in at #6 of the top ten countries/dependencies with the strongest LDS presence but without a temple, making a temple there likely sooner rather than later. I have also heard some say that a second and possibly a third Ivory Coast temple may be announced within the next 10-15 years depending on how quickly the first one progresses. And it may be high time for a temple in Liberia as well.
3. While I was double-checking for additional temple sites, I quickly figured out that Asia could be a great candidate for several new temples, and these are the most likely locations that I could find. While all of them make sense in terms of President Monson’s desire to have every Church member within 200 miles of a temple, I have grouped them by the number of Church units. Additionally, I know that temples have been proposed for New Delhi India (in 1992 by Elder Maxwell) and for Singapore (in 2000 by President Hinckley). Church membership in those countries stand as follows: Cambodia: nearing 14,000; India: just over 13,000; Mongolia: nearing 11,500; Indonesia: nearing 7,300; Singapore: nearing 8,400. According to a statistical profile written by a Church Growth expert, India may not actually get a temple until there is a stronger Church presence to support. For now, it seems that the order I have placed them in may be the most likely order by which they might be announced. On July 28, I added one for Taichung Taiwan, since further research indicates Taiwan may be ready for a second temple. As more information comes to light, I will make any adjustments that might be necessary.
4. In Brazil, the two cities above seem to be the most imminent possibilities. It would also not surprise me at all if the Church held off on announcing any other Brazilian temples until the two under construction and the other two announced ones are closer to completion. As I have mentioned previously, I had felt prior to General Conference last April that Brazil's next temple would be built in Brasilia, but didn't think it would be announced until the one in Belem made more progress. So more Brazilian temples may be announced soon, but they also might not. Once more is known, I will make any adjustments needed. Many people who have given me feedback on my temple possibilities have stated that they think it might be possible for us to perhaps see the two temples mentioned above announced at the same time. And that certainly makes sense. In the event that the two are not announced simultaneously, they may be announced in close proximity.
5. Central America may be needing several new temples, based on what my research shows. Then-Elder Nelson proposed a temple for Managua in 2012, and I recently learned that land has been set aside for such a temple for several years. Additional research done on July 28, 2017 showed that temples could be needed in the other cities listed in the Central America Area, and they are listed in order of likelihood for that to happen.
6. While I said when posting my last list of possibilities that any new European temples might be put on hold until the Church evaluates how the dedications of the Paris France and Rome Italy Temples and the rededications of the temples in Freiberg and Frankfurt Germany have affected temple attendance for European Saints, in going over the current and future districts, I was reminded of a couple of things: First, Cape Verde is currently the 10th of the top ten countries that has the strongest LDS presence but that does not yet have a temple in any phase. I had also heard from several people that Budapest Hungary would be the next European temple. And Vienna Austria makes sense in terms of President Monson's expressed goal to have every member within 200 miles of a temple. Until more information is known, these additions seem to be sound.
7. Of the many cities in Mexico, I know Puebla has been widely mentioned as the most likely site for the next temple in that nation. I have also felt at times that Queretaro could be a feasible possibility. If and when I feel I can narrow down or add new options, I will do so.
8. While Church growth in the United States has stagnated somewhat of late, except in the “Mormon corridor” of Idaho, Utah, and Arizona, I have heard at one time or another that each of the temples I listed above could potentially be As part of my efforts to expand my predictions, I decided to include these cities again on this list. Until I know more about US growth, these seem to be sound changes. I also know, as I have previously noted, that land has been set aside in Bentonville Arkansas and Missoula Montana for future temple sites, with an official announcement anticipated once unit growth and activity in the current temple districts warrant that happening.
9. In the Pacific, I know that the first two cities have been mentioned to me as having sites purchased, and once Church growth and temple activity from these areas warrant an official announcement for them, it will happen. Of the two, Auckland seems more likely. Additionally, Papua New Guinea is the second of the top 10 countries with the strongest LDS presence without a temple. American Samoa is the seventh on that list of top ten. Additionally, further study which I did in late July confirms that Tonga may get another temple.
10. As a state that is constantly expanding its outreach, Utah has 18 temples either in operation or in various stages of construction. Layton and Tooele have often been mentioned to me by name as possibilities. I added Heber City in late July after a couple of comments led me to do so. Each of these seem likely. I also know that we are still waiting to have the Southwest Salt Lake Valley temple mentioned by President Hinckley announced at some point. Some have said that this temple has been announced already, but the research I have done proves otherwise.
Final note: As with everything else I put together, these are no more than my own thoughts, feelings, and observations based on the research I have done and the reports I have received. I hope that is absolutely understood and accepted. No one can know the mind of the Lord relating to His Church except those authorized to receive revelation regarding their own spheres of responsibility. While I am always gratified when my predictions turn out to be correct, I am even more appreciative of the many times developments do not take place as I project they will. At the end of the day, the Lord is the only one who can determine best how to further His work, and He manifests His will to those authorized to lead the Church and make decisions. Just wanted to end on that note.
NOTE ABOUT ANNOUNCEMENTS: Two significant developments have occurred that will no doubt change how and when temple announcements occur for the remainder of President Monson’s presidency. First, during the Idaho Falls Idaho Temple Open House, Elder Larry Y. Wilson, the Executive Director of the Church’s Temple Department, stated that the Church is considering as many as 80 future sites that could be announced within the next 15 years. That works out to a rough average of 5 per year every year between now and 2032, not including those 5 that were announced earlier this year. This means that we will likely have a few temples announced during each General Conference and that we will also from time to time have one or two announced in the six months between each conference. Because President Monson will not be participating in General Conference at all, if any new temples are announced, one of his counselors will be authorized to make that announcement in his behalf. I could see that happening at either the beginning of the Saturday Morning or Sunday Morning Sessions. Just wanted to note that.
3+ temples announced in any of the following locations:
After thinking further about those temples I feel are most likely in the near future, I first narrowed down then expanded, then revised these selections again. I am again listing them by the geographical area of the Church under which they fall and then by likelihood within each of those areas. As always, these are nothing more than my own thoughts, backed up by either research or the opinions of others I have trusted in this matter. The Lord decides where He needs His temples to be built, and those decisions are manifested to those authorized to receive such revelation (the prophet, or, in our current situation, those authorized to represent him in so determining).
Africa Southeast: Antananarivo Madagascar; Maputo Mozambique; Lubumbashi DR Congo; Cape Town South Africa
Africa West: Benin City/Lagos Nigeria; Kumasi Ghana; Freetown Sierra Leone; Yamoussoukro Ivory Coast; Monrovia Liberia
Asia: Phomn Penh Cambodia; Jakarta Indonesia; Taichung Taiwan; Ulaanbaatar Mongolia; Singapore; Hyderabad/Rajahmundry India
Brazil: Belo Horizonte; Salvador
Caribbean: San Juan Puerto Rico
Central America: Managua Nicaragua; San Pedro Sula Honduras; Guatemala City Guatemala (2nd temple)
Europe: Praia Cape Verde; Budapest Hungary; Vienna Austria; Edinburgh Scotland
Mexico: Puebla; Queretaro
North America Central: Missoula Montana; Green Bay Wisconsin; Rapid City South Dakota
North America Northeast: Richmond Virginia
North America Northwest: Salem Oregon
North America Southeast: Bentonville Arkansas
North America Southwest: Fort Worth Texas; Flagstaff Arizona; Henderson Nevada
Pacific: Auckland New Zealand; Port Moresby Papua New Guinea; Pago Pago American Samoa; Neiafu Vava'u Tonga
Philippines: Davao/Cagayan de Oro
South America Northwest: Maracaibo Venezuela; Santa Cruz/La Paz Bolivia; Iquitos Peru
South America South: Valparaiso Chile; Neuquen Argentina
Utah North: Layton Utah
Utah Salt Lake: Tooele Utah
Utah South: Heber City Utah
Notes about potential temple sites:
1. For the Africa Southeast Area, the first two possibilities listed seem to be the most likely ones. With the growth of the Church in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a second temple seems imminent, even without knowing how the one that will be dedicated in Kinshasa will affect any potential future temples. While Elder Neil L. Andersen proposed a temple for the Kasai region, Lubumbashi seems more likely. And I have felt certain that South Africa could get a third temple, and that Cape Town is the most likely city to next get one. As always, I will pass any new information along as I become aware of it.
2. Regarding the Africa West Area, the LDS Church growth blog reports that, if current growth trends continue, that area could have 13 temples by the year 2030. Along with that, we know that there are two dedicated and one announced in that area already. In the Africa West Area, second temples for Ghana and Nigeria seem likely, especially now that all Nigerian cities have been reached by the Church. The one thing I have not been able to settle through my research is whether Lagos or Benin City is more likely. I could see temples in both cities within the next 15-30 years. And Sierra Leone may also get a temple soon simply by virtue of being so far distant from the temple district under which it falls. Additionally, Sierra Leone comes in at #6 of the top ten countries/dependencies with the strongest LDS presence but without a temple, making a temple there likely sooner rather than later. I have also heard some say that a second and possibly a third Ivory Coast temple may be announced within the next 10-15 years depending on how quickly the first one progresses. And it may be high time for a temple in Liberia as well.
3. While I was double-checking for additional temple sites, I quickly figured out that Asia could be a great candidate for several new temples, and these are the most likely locations that I could find. While all of them make sense in terms of President Monson’s desire to have every Church member within 200 miles of a temple, I have grouped them by the number of Church units. Additionally, I know that temples have been proposed for New Delhi India (in 1992 by Elder Maxwell) and for Singapore (in 2000 by President Hinckley). Church membership in those countries stand as follows: Cambodia: nearing 14,000; India: just over 13,000; Mongolia: nearing 11,500; Indonesia: nearing 7,300; Singapore: nearing 8,400. According to a statistical profile written by a Church Growth expert, India may not actually get a temple until there is a stronger Church presence to support. For now, it seems that the order I have placed them in may be the most likely order by which they might be announced. On July 28, I added one for Taichung Taiwan, since further research indicates Taiwan may be ready for a second temple. As more information comes to light, I will make any adjustments that might be necessary.
4. In Brazil, the two cities above seem to be the most imminent possibilities. It would also not surprise me at all if the Church held off on announcing any other Brazilian temples until the two under construction and the other two announced ones are closer to completion. As I have mentioned previously, I had felt prior to General Conference last April that Brazil's next temple would be built in Brasilia, but didn't think it would be announced until the one in Belem made more progress. So more Brazilian temples may be announced soon, but they also might not. Once more is known, I will make any adjustments needed. Many people who have given me feedback on my temple possibilities have stated that they think it might be possible for us to perhaps see the two temples mentioned above announced at the same time. And that certainly makes sense. In the event that the two are not announced simultaneously, they may be announced in close proximity.
5. Central America may be needing several new temples, based on what my research shows. Then-Elder Nelson proposed a temple for Managua in 2012, and I recently learned that land has been set aside for such a temple for several years. Additional research done on July 28, 2017 showed that temples could be needed in the other cities listed in the Central America Area, and they are listed in order of likelihood for that to happen.
6. While I said when posting my last list of possibilities that any new European temples might be put on hold until the Church evaluates how the dedications of the Paris France and Rome Italy Temples and the rededications of the temples in Freiberg and Frankfurt Germany have affected temple attendance for European Saints, in going over the current and future districts, I was reminded of a couple of things: First, Cape Verde is currently the 10th of the top ten countries that has the strongest LDS presence but that does not yet have a temple in any phase. I had also heard from several people that Budapest Hungary would be the next European temple. And Vienna Austria makes sense in terms of President Monson's expressed goal to have every member within 200 miles of a temple. Until more information is known, these additions seem to be sound.
7. Of the many cities in Mexico, I know Puebla has been widely mentioned as the most likely site for the next temple in that nation. I have also felt at times that Queretaro could be a feasible possibility. If and when I feel I can narrow down or add new options, I will do so.
8. While Church growth in the United States has stagnated somewhat of late, except in the “Mormon corridor” of Idaho, Utah, and Arizona, I have heard at one time or another that each of the temples I listed above could potentially be As part of my efforts to expand my predictions, I decided to include these cities again on this list. Until I know more about US growth, these seem to be sound changes. I also know, as I have previously noted, that land has been set aside in Bentonville Arkansas and Missoula Montana for future temple sites, with an official announcement anticipated once unit growth and activity in the current temple districts warrant that happening.
9. In the Pacific, I know that the first two cities have been mentioned to me as having sites purchased, and once Church growth and temple activity from these areas warrant an official announcement for them, it will happen. Of the two, Auckland seems more likely. Additionally, Papua New Guinea is the second of the top 10 countries with the strongest LDS presence without a temple. American Samoa is the seventh on that list of top ten. Additionally, further study which I did in late July confirms that Tonga may get another temple.
10. As a state that is constantly expanding its outreach, Utah has 18 temples either in operation or in various stages of construction. Layton and Tooele have often been mentioned to me by name as possibilities. I added Heber City in late July after a couple of comments led me to do so. Each of these seem likely. I also know that we are still waiting to have the Southwest Salt Lake Valley temple mentioned by President Hinckley announced at some point. Some have said that this temple has been announced already, but the research I have done proves otherwise.
Final note: As with everything else I put together, these are no more than my own thoughts, feelings, and observations based on the research I have done and the reports I have received. I hope that is absolutely understood and accepted. No one can know the mind of the Lord relating to His Church except those authorized to receive revelation regarding their own spheres of responsibility. While I am always gratified when my predictions turn out to be correct, I am even more appreciative of the many times developments do not take place as I project they will. At the end of the day, the Lord is the only one who can determine best how to further His work, and He manifests His will to those authorized to lead the Church and make decisions. Just wanted to end on that note.
Let's dissect these one by one by area. Antanarivo is a definite dark horse pick. Cape Town as well. I would put the Mozambique temple in Beira given that it has two stakes versus the one in Maputo, though Maputo is the capital. It is further away also from the existing temple in Joburg and temple u/c in Durban. Lumbumbashi is another definite possibility though it is really a wash between that city and the Kasai region (I think they will be near simultaneous--Lumbumbashi and then Kasai).
ReplyDeleteAfrica West: Freetown a definite possibilty as well as Lagos and Benin City (like the Kasai region I think both will be near simultaneous. I wouldn't rule out Abuja either in the medium to long term, and Ibadan in the longer term. Kumasi might be an option in Ghana in the not so distant future, and once Daloa gets a stake in Ivory Coast Yamousoukro becomes a definite possibility. Monrovia will be a bit longer run but that can also surprise.
Your Asia picks are rather ambitious, especially Phnom Penh considering that Bangkok is still under construction. Jakarta and Ullanbattar are true dark horse picks and I like those a lot. The members in India are too far apart to justify a temple in the country, but if you split either Bangaluru or Hyderabad plus making Delhi a stake then all bets are off. I would think the second Taiwan temple would be built more in the south though Taichung looks like a possibility long term. I would use Kaohshung(sp) in the south first and then Taichung in abt 10 years or so.
Brazil you have a point on there being so many temples under construction but it is like Mexico 15 years ago. Until 1999 there was only one temple in the entire country and by 2002 there were twelve. So I wouldn't rule out Brazil. I think Salvador gets one before Belo does. I wouldn't rule out another temple in Sao Paulo State in Sorocaba or Jundai. Or in Catarina state (I am looking at you Florianopolis).
In the Carribbean San Juan might be an option but they are going to have to do major cleanup after both Irma and Maria. But it is a very feasible option as there are 5 stakes on the island.
Your Central American picks are solid and I see each of those happening very soon. I might include Coban for those in northern Guatemala in lieu of a second temple in Guatemala City. And a long shot pick in San Miguel ES.
In Europe Praia Cape Verde is the surest pick and in Europe itself I am looking at EITHER Vienna or Budapest (favor the latter a bit here). Russia has the same problem as India, the members are too far apart, until another stake forms in Moscow or St Pete a temple will be a long time coming for them.
In Mexico the obvious picks are Puebla and Queretaro. Dark horse picks Torreon (distance to Monterrey, 5 stakes), and Culiacan (3 stakes, 12 hours to nearest temple one way, 7 stakes in the state). Don't forget Reynosa/McAllen. That would get everyone in the lower Rio Grande Valley, approx 10 stakes there on both sides of the border.
Hey, Bryan! Thanks for stopping by and giving me your thoughts. Before responding to your feedback, I want to let you know that I appreciate your willingness to honestly share your thoughts about my selections, even if we may disagree on any of my picks.
DeleteThat said, I wanted to let you know that I recognize that a Madagascar temple is more of a long-shot, but I remember clearly how many people with whom I shared my predictions last time tried to talk me out of Nairobi Kenya for the near future and put it on more of a long-shot possibility. I stuck with it and was gratified when it was announced. So a temple in Madagascar may be more imminent than many people think. Given that there is such a short time remaining before General Conference, I would say I don't see a compelling enough reason to remove it, but I will reevaluate that if it is not announced in this conference or next April. Such site selection is an ongoing process. As for Cape Town and Mozambique being longer shots as well, and a potential different city for Mozambique, my main reason putting both of those on the list for this go round is both my knowledge of Church growth in Africa and where the Church seemed better rooted. Those would both need reconsideration. But in terms of Beira over Maputo due to a greater number of stakes, as I have noted in the example of Winnipeg, a region having more stakes than another region does not always mean that the region with that greater number of units will get a temple first. Some argued for Uganda over Kenya because Uganda had 3 stakes to Kenya's 2. Additionally, as we have seen with the winnipeg Manitoba Temple, 1 stake does not necessarily disqualify a region from having a temple. The growth in Africa hs been significant enough that, as many have observed, Africa may be due for several more temples within the next 15 years and beyond, as the Church is growing substantially in both of the two Church areas on that continent. As for the DR Congo, I know that Elder Andersen has publlicly proposed a temple for the Kasai Region, but I have heard from some familiar with temple matters that Lubumbashi may be the better candidate, and I trust that completely. I could see simultaneous announcements for both regions, as you said. I can also see simultaneous announcements for Lagos & Benin City. I am sure the Church will add one (and possibly one or two more) temples for the Ivory Coast, and for that prediction, I used the mileage between Abidjan and other cities. As for Kumasi, that feels more imminently likely than many have thought. I would not rule out my being wrong in that regard. And maybe South Africa is a few years away from its next temple, but I have felt safe in predicting Cape Town. But these thoughts are just based on my own study, which may be far from perfect.
The Asia picks have come primarily from my calculations of their distance to the temple that currently covers their cities, all of which are more than 200 miles away. That said, I recognize that some of them are more imminent than others. At the moment, I too feel that a temple in Inida is a long ways away, and that if and when India gets its first temple, it will likely not be in New Delhi, where Elder Maxwell publicly proposed one in 1992. I know that for Asia, we may indeed need to wait until the Bangkok Temple is constructed, which may be a while yet. But I have been invited to expand my net, so I didn't want to leave any stone unturned for that regions. If Taiwan gets another temple, it may or may not be in Taichung. I didn't have much time to research Church growth in these Asian nations. After the next General Conference, depending on which, if any, of these possibilities are announced, I will be sure to reevaluate.
DeleteIn Brazil, I know that two temples are under construction, with two more announced (one of which (brasilia), which, having already had a site confirmed, will likely have a groundbreaking sometime next year), and Belem (which was announced a year earlier but may not have a groundbreaking until at least a year after Brasilia, if my theories in that regard are anywhere close to being correct). I have heard from several people that my Brazil picks could be simultaneously announced, since they are fairly distant both from each other and from the temple districts under which they currently fall. At this point, given how well the Church continues to grow in Brazil, nothing would surprise me. Up until just before the April General Conference, I was convinced that Brazil having had a temple announced one year earlier, would likely not get another, but I put it on my list as a long-shot hunch, and I was grateful to have that inspiration verified. Depending on things, I could see both temples announced at the same time, within close proximity, or years between each other. Time will tell. I do like your thoughts on Brazilian temple possibilities, and will look at them more thoroughly folllowing the next General Conference. The two on my list have been considered by me for various lengths of time, and they both seem likely sooner rather than later.
I agree with you on the Caribbean. Between that and the Church waiting to see how the Port-au-Prince construction and dedication change temple attendance within that area, San Juan may be a possibility in the future, but certainly not right now.
For Central America, I believe Managua to be the most imminent possibility for the near future. Then-Elder Nelson publicly proposed a temple there in 2012, and I have heard that land has been held in reserve there for quite some time, awaiting the right time for an announcement. The fact that it is on several temple experts' short list doesn't hurt either.
DeleteAs far as Europe goes, Cape Verde may indeed get one first, as it is on the list of the top ten nations with the greatest Church presence without a temple, but a comment on my blog when I first discussed my temple possibilities in depth mentioned that Budapest would be the next temple, no question. I could see any of these three at any point in the next little while, and all of them happening in several years. Of the three, Austria may be the one with the longest shot. My wife served her mission there, and she tells me that the faithfulness and devotion of the Church members may still be an issue, so the big question for Austria would be is there enough member support and faithfulness to facilitate such a temple? Time will tell. I know that Russia is, if memory serves, 4 or 5 on the list of the top 10 countries with the strongest Church presence without a temple, but that doesn't mean anything if a corrupt government and prevailing regulations will make Russia more of a long shot to have such a temple.
I am glad, Bryan, that, as one with no small familiarity in regard to Mexico, you agree with the "obvious" picks on my list. I haven't had too much time or opportunity to study temple possibilities for Mexico as thoroughly as I would like. Perhaps I will be able to do so after this General Conference.
I have more to say about your thoughts, but since those comments relate to the others you left below, that is all I wanted to say for this comment. Thanks, Bryan!
Actually, before moving on to your next comment, Bryan, I had another thought about Brazilian temples. We have seen times in Brazil, before Fortaleza and Rio had a groundbreaking or had even been announced, where two (and even three) temples were under construction at the same time in that nation. There were even two Brazilian temples dedicated just two days apart. with that in mind, I don't think we can rule out any Brazilian possibilities. In fact, given that we might again have three temples in Brazil under construction again (if either of the temples announced last April or the year before have a groundbreaking in the next 18 months, which I think both will), it is not hard to believe that, within the next 10 years or so, 4 temples minimum could be announced and begin construction in Brazil. Time will tell. Just wanted to add that thought, FWIW.
DeleteOut of your North American picks I definitely feel for you in Missoula Montana. Green Bay and Rapid City seem too remote but who knows? Agree with Salem Oregon and with Richmond though Richmond (and most of VA north of there has the same type of problem Puebla has with Mexico City: Relative closeness to a gigantic temple that is underutilized by the locals).
ReplyDeleteBentonville is a good solid pick. For the southwest, I would select Vegas but perhaps on the west side of town given that the temple is in the northeast. Though there are more than enough members in Henderson. I still think Austin and McAllen (or Reynosa over the border) are more viable than Fort Worth though that can change too.
Strong Utah picks. For simplicity stake I call Layton north Davis (versus Bountiful South Davis), and Tooele are good.
Pacific picks look good though Port Moresby is kind of a dark horse.
South America picks look good though Venezuela might have to wait a while. LOTS of insecurity there and inflation. I would have the Valpo Chile temple further north, in Antofagasta.
Here I am again. Thanks for agreeing about Missoula. I heard a report (that I have not yet verified) that Elder Bednar publicly proposed such a temple in a stake conference last year. If that is the case, and if Montana Church growth warrants it, I can see that happening sooner rather than later. Thanks also for your thoughts on Salem and Richmond. I did some studying on the most likely site for a temple in Virginia, and the result was Richmond, no doubt. I also wanted to pause here and add just a general comment about potential temples in the US. I know that Church growth within the US has stagnated, except for in the "Mormon corridor" area defined as Idaho, Utah, and Arizona. But I also know that I have revised and then expanded my list of possibilities for the US again and again. After trimming my list down last time from 10 temples or so to around 6 (2 or 3 of which were in Utah), I was particularly urged to expand my net regarding US possibilities. I also know that I had Madison as the candidate for the first temple in Wisconsin, and was told that Green Bay would be more likely. I also know that South Dakota is more of a long-shot, but as I stated above, 1 stake in any region does not and should not disqualify an area from having a temple, as long as there are enough active, temple-worthy members to staff it and keep it busy frequently enough. I favor Rapid City because my dad served his mission there, and speaks warmly of his experiences there. He even had the unique experience of having people he taught on his mission come by our family's home to tell him they were about to start serving a mission of their own at Church headquarters in Salt Lake, and that they credited him personally with following the Spirit to know how to persuade them to accept and believe in Church doctrine. Sorry for that aside. I just thought it was a neat story. And if half of the members in South Dakota are half as faithful in the Church, such members are more than deserving to have the blessings of a temple in their midst.
DeleteWith Bentonville, I know some have suggested Rogers instead for the first temple in Arkansas. But during my first job, I was supervised by a man who knew of my efforts to blog about Church news, and my interest in temples, and he let me know that, from his time in Arkansas, a temple site had been procured, and that the Church was just waiting for temple attendance and membership in the area to increase enough to warrant an official announcement.
I wanted to finish my responses to your comments last night but had to get to bed before I could. Getting back to it, in terms of the Utah picks, I have heard Layton and Tooele both mentioned as strong candidates for a temple. We also know that there is a temple site referenced by President Hinckley in 2005 in the Southwest Salt Lake Valley that he indicated would be announced in the future when the right conditions and timing warranted that happening. Some have contended that that temple has already been announced, but we know that is not the case. I anticipate that Utah could be eligible for quite a few new temples in the next 15-30 years. As more temples are announced in Utah going forward, one of them will surely be the one referenced by President Hinckley, wherever that site is located.
DeleteWhile I have heard from many that Port Moresby is less likely than Auckland, I do know one thing: land has been held in reserve for both temples for at least the last several years. Both are anticipated to be announced at some point. Auckland may precede Port Moresby by several years, but I could see both happening within the next 15-30 years. The only question on my mind is how soon either or both of them may be announced.
I also fully appreciate what you said about a second Venezuelan temple probably not being likely. The corruption of the current Venezuelan government is such that the spiritual climate of that nation is likely not ready for a second temple, nor might it be so for quite some time. In this case, though, with General Conference set to take place 8 days from today, I feel better about keeping it on my list until after this next General Conference.
As far as other South American picks, I know that many have said that Antofagasta may get a temple before Valparaiso, but again, that is an issue where my personal study has pointed more towards Valparaiso. That said, I know that you have a particular knowledge of Mexico temples, so if no new temples are announced in Mexico this go-round, that would be another instance where I would do more research on that point after General Conference. Thanks for all of your feedback here as well.
In order of likelihood from 0 (no shot before 10 years) to 10 (certain shot of announcement in the next conference) here is my own list, based off of your picks as well as my own...
ReplyDeleteAfrica West: Freetown (8) Lagos (8) Benin City (5) Kumasi (5) Abuja (2.5) Monrovia (2.5) Yamoussukro (2.5)
Africa SE: Maputo (2) Beira (3) Cape Town (5) Lubumbashi (4) Kasai (2.5) Antanarivo (2.5)
Asia: Ullanbattar (4) Phnom Penh (2) Hyderabad (2) Jakarta (4) Singapore (2) Taichung (3) Kaohshung (6)
Brazil: Salvador (7) Belo Horizonte (4) Florianopolis (4) Jundai (4) Sorocaba (4)
Carribbean: San Juan (5)
Central America: Managua (9), San Pedro Sula (6), Coban (4), 2nd GUA CITY (3)
Europe: Praia (7), Vienna OR Budapest (5), Vienna AND Budapest (1), Moscow (2), Edinburgh (3)
Mexico: Puebla (8), Queretaro/Bajio (7), Torreon (5), Culiacan (4), Reynosa/McAllen (4)
Interesting. I know that, speaking personally, the subject of the timing of near- and further-distant future temple-related events, including a projected timeline for future events, and the site picks I put together ever six months, my study of the possibilities is ongoing, and I am constantly working to get things fine-tuned and reworked to be the best they possibly can be. I am grateful for the chance I have to contribute to the dialogue on this subject, and I hope you know, Bryan, how much I appreciate your thoughts on my personal list. Depending on how many (if any) temples may be announced next weekend, we may be in for a surprise or two. Thanks again for your input, Bryan! I appreciate it!
DeleteWhat about Bolivia or Colombia? Both have over 200k members and only 1 temple.
ReplyDeleteHello. Thanks for your comment and for stopping by. I did include two Bolivian candidates in the list above (among my other picks for the South America Northwest Area: Santa Cruz and La Paz. A good friend of mine, who served as the bishop of my parents' ward during a formative period of my life, served as a missionary in La Paz. My study has found that Santa Cruz may be more likely to happen before La Paz, but I can see both happening within the next 30 years or less.
DeleteAs for Colombia, I know there is only one temple dedicated, but its second temple is currently under construction in Barranquilla, and is anticipated to be dedicated in the last quarter of next year. With that in mind, and with several other South American choices on my list, I don't think Colombia will be needing another temple until the Brethren have a chance to study how busy both Colombian temples are being kept.
I hope I didn't offend you by pointing out any of this. Thank you for taking time to comment. If you would like to, I welcome your reading and commenting on any of my other posts that might catch your interest. Thanks again.