Stokes Sounds Off: April 2018 General Conference Preliminary Predictions Part 1: Speaking Order and Possible Changes in General Church Leadership

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Wednesday, November 8, 2017

April 2018 General Conference Preliminary Predictions Part 1: Speaking Order and Possible Changes in General Church Leadership

Hello again, everyone! Not long after General Conference ended last month, as I always do, I immediately began preparing my preliminary predictions for General Conference next April. As I have previously mentioned, while I continue to work on and invite feedback about the series of posts I am doing about potential future temple locations, which will be one part of those predictions, and while I am waiting more towards the end of this year to prepare my predictions for what the year-end statistical report might look like, I thought I would post here and now with what I have assembled in terms of the potential speaking order and potential changes in general Church leadership. Those predictions follow below. That does it for this post. Any comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

April 2018 General Conference Predictions

Preliminary note on these predictions: On October 27, 2017, the First Presidency announced that the Women’s and Priesthood Sessions of General Conference would both be held annually, with the Priesthood Session every April, and the Women’s Session every October, with both to be held two hours following the Saturday Afternoon Session. As I have previously stated, my predictions in recent years have averaged between 60-80% in their accuracy because I have been able to notice patterns of the past and have used those to predict what may happen for the future. The new policy will result in new patterns, which I hope to have figured out by April 2019. That said, the only thing that might be different during this conference is that President Eyring will be giving one less talk than he has in recent April General Conference sessions. Other than that, I don’t anticipate much deviation from previous conferences.

Speaking Order (Text in brackets indicated what actually happened.)
Session
Conducting
Speaker
Saturday Morning
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
President Henry B. Eyring


Bishop Dean M. Davies


Christina B. Franco


Elder David A. Bednar


Elder Massimo De Feo


Elder Larry Y. Wilson


Elder Ronald A. Rasband
Saturday Afternoon
President Henry B. Eyring
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
(Sustaining of Church Officers)_

Church Auditing Department Report, 2017
Kevin R. Jergensen

Statistical Report, 2017
Brook P. Hales


Elder Dale G. Renlund


Elder D. Todd Christofferson


Devin G. Durrant


Elder Taniela B. Wakolo


Elder Dallin H. Oaks


Elder M. Russell Ballard
Saturday Priesthood
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
Elder Gary E. Stevenson


Douglas D. Holmes


Elder Gerrit W. Gong


President Dieter F. Uchtdorf


President Henry B. Eyring
Sunday Morning
President Henry B. Eyring
New apostle


Elder Patrick Kearon


Neill F. Marriott


Elder Neil L. Andersen


Elder Brian K. Taylor


Elder Paul B. Pieper


President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
Sunday Afternoon
President Dieter F. Uchtdorf
President Russell M. Nelson


Elder Larry Echo Hawk


Elder Taylor G. Godoy


Elder Jeffrey R. Holland


Elder Walter F. Gonzalez


Elder Anthony D. Perkins


Elder Quentin L. Cook

Predictions for Changes in Church Leadership
Quorum of the Twelve Apostles: New apostle and Quorum member sustained to fill the vacancy created by the October 1, 2017 death of Elder Robert D. Hales.
Note about this apostolic vacancy: The newest apostle could be any worthy man in the Church, whether or not he is known to Church membership (including any currently serving General Authority, Area Seventy, member of the Sunday School or Young Men General Presidencies, or the Church at large). That said, the last time a new apostle did not come from among those currently serving General Authorities occurred with the 2004 sustaining of Elder David A. Bednar, who was then serving as both an area seventy and as president of BYU-Idaho at the time of his call. So it is more likely that someone from the general leadership of the Church will be called. Of those five apostles called during President Monson’s Church presidency, three were called from the Presidency of the Seventy (one of whom was the second most senior member, and the other two who were the Senior President of the Seventy), one was the Presiding Bishop of the Church (who had also served as a General Authority Seventy prior to his call as Presiding Bishop), and one was a General Authority Seventy.
Note about the timing of the announcement: While I would not be surprised at all if we do not find out who will be filling the apostolic vacancy until the Sustaining of Church Officers during the Saturday Afternoon Session, at the same time, I could also see President Monson authorizing President Eyring to lead the sustaining of the new apostle during his Saturday Morning address.
Result: Elder (name of new apostle goes here) was called and sustained to the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles.
Presidency of the Seventy: If the new apostle is any of these men, he will be released and a new member will be sustained.
Result:
General Authority Seventies: If the new apostle comes from among these men, he will be released. As is typical for the April General Conference, new General Authorities will be sustained from the Area Seventies or the Church at large (including any current mission or temple president).
Result:
Presiding Bishopric: If the new apostle is any of these three men, there will be changes to this group.
Result:
Area Seventies: Releases and sustainings, especially if the new apostle comes from among these men.
NOTE: The last area seventy called as an apostle was Elder David A. Bednar in 2004. It is possible that the Church could look to one of the current area seventies to fill this vacancy. It is also common to see the bulk of releases and sustainings happen in April, when President Dieter F. Uchtdorf, leads out in the sustaining, rather than in October, when President Eyring does so. Last October was the exception to this, so anything is possible.
Result:
Young Women General Presidency: Sisters Bonnie L. Oscarson, Carol F. McConkie, and Neill F. Marriott released; new Young Women General Presidency sustained, whether or not either of the current counselors are retained in the new presidency; new presidency members may also come from among the outgoing members of the general board, or the new president could be one of the counselors in the Primary or Relief Society General Presidency. If that happens, changes in the affected presidency will also need to be sustained.
Note: The current presidency has served since 2013, meaning that they have reached the standard 5 years of service that have been typical for general presidencies in recent years. It is therefore more than likely that the current presidency will be released. And the last time any member of an outgoing presidency were retained in the new one was in 2007, so it could very easily happen again. It has also been common for one or more members of the outgoing Young Women General Board to become part of the new presidency. So the Church has options there.
Result:
Sunday School General Presidency: Possible changes made, if new apostle comes from this presidency.
Result:
Young Men General Presidency: Possible changes made, if new apostle comes from this presidency.
Result:

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