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Saturday, August 11, 2018

Other Updated Predictions for the October 2018 General Conference

Hello again, everyone! I just now realized that I had updated some things on my predictions for the October 2018 General Conference (for both the potential speaking order and also the likely changes in general Church leadership). Those changes follow below, and I welcome feedback on that as well. So as not to disturb the flow of that information, I will end here and now as I always do.

That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly-added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.


October 2018 General Conference Predictions[i]
Session
Conducting
Speakers
Saturday Morning[ii]
President Russell M. Nelson
President Russell M. Nelson


Elder Terence M. Vinson


Elder David A. Bednar


Elder Jack N. Gerard


Elder Gerrit W. Gong


Elder Walter F. Gonzalez


Elder Ronald A. Rasband


President Dallin H. Oaks
Saturday Afternoon
President Dallin H. Oaks
President Henry B. Eyring (Sustaining of Church Officers)[iii]


Elder D. Todd Christofferson


Bishop Dean M. Davies


Elder Ulisses Soares


Elder Craig A. Cardon


Elder Dieter F. Uchtdorf


Elder Juan Pablo Villar


Elder Jeffrey R. Holland
Women’s Session[iv]
Joy D. Jones
Cristina B. Franco


Michelle D. Craig


Jean B. Bingham


President Henry B. Eyring


President Dallin H. Oaks


President Russell M. Nelson
Sunday Morning
President Russell M. Nelson
President Henry B. Eyring


Bonnie H. Cordon


Elder Neil L. Andersen


Elder Robert C. Gay


Elder Takashi Wada


Elder Quentin L. Cook


President Russell M. Nelson
Sunday Afternoon
President Henry B. Eyring
President M. Russell Ballard


Brian K. Ashton


Elder Mathias Held


Elder Dale G. Renlund


Elder Scott D. Whiting


Elder Paul B. Pieper


Elder Gary E. Stevenson


President Russell M. Nelson

Predictions for Changes in General Church Leadership
General Authority Seventies: Elder Brook P. Hales sustained as a new General Authority Seventy and Elders Mervyn B. Arnold, Craig A. Cardon, Larry J. Echo Hawk, C. Scott Grow, Allan F. Packer, Gregory A. Schwitzer, and Claudio D. Zivic released and granted emeritus status.
Note: On May 18, 2018, the Church News reported that Brook P. Hales, who has been serving as Secretary to the First Presidency, will continue that role, but has been called to additionally serve as a General Authority Seventy. His call will likely be presented for sustaining vote. Each of the other seven GA Seventies mentioned above were born in 1948, and will all have their 70th birthdays before the end of 2018. While the Church has at times delayed the release of some GA Seventies for 1-4 years after their 70th birthdays, the last time something like that occurred was in the early 2000s. It is therefore my belief that each of the other men listed above will most likely be released.
Result:
Area Seventies: Some area seventies released, others called.
Note: In the past, when some area seventies have been called as mission presidents, they have retained their area seventy assignments for 1-3 General Conferences after their assignments begin. In the meantime, those called as temple presidents have almost always been released. And while area seventies have been known to serve for longer periods, the general term of service for these Brethren has been 5-8 years. With that in mind, the following area seventies may or may not be released:
Newly-called mission presidents: Elders Daniel F. Dunnigan, Tasara Makasi, Fred A. Parker, and Miguel A. Reyes.
Newly-called temple presidents: Elders B. Sergio Antunes, Joao R. Grahl, Todd B. Hansen, Daniel W. Jones, Steven O. Laing, and Katsuyuki Otahara.
Longest-tenured: Elders Sergio L. Krasnoselsky (who has served since April 2009), Kevin J. Worthen* (who has served since April 2010), R. Randall Bluth, Hans T. Boom & David J. Thomson (who have served since April 2011).
*With reference to Kevin J. Worthen, he is currently serving as president of BYU-Provo, and as such, may either serve as an area seventy until next April, then perhaps be called as a General Authority Seventy while continuing his service at BYU, or may remain an area seventy until the conclusion of his presidential tenure, however long that may be.
Result:


[i]While General Conferences for the last decade and longer have typically conformed to a general pattern, there have been at least half a dozen exceptions during that same time, with the April 2018 General Conference being the most recent exception. Additionally, last October, the Church announced that the Priesthood and Women’s Sessions would each be held annually, with the former every April and the latter every October. For that reason, for the next 2-4 General Conferences, I will be giving myself a small margin of error while I try to get a feel for what the new patterns might involve.
[ii]As I will discuss in more detail in “Note 4” below, an assumption is made with these predictions that no members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles will be speaking during the Women’s Session. If that turns out to be the case, then the Quorum member that would have otherwise spoken during the Saturday Evening Session will need to be fit in somewhere else, and that could be done during either the Saturday Morning or Sunday Afternoon Sessions. Since the previous two General Conferences have seen 3 Quorum members speak during the Saturday Morning Session, an assumption is made here that this will again be the case.
[iii]Last April, in the first two sessions of General Conference, President Nelson’s two counselors each led a portion of what had traditionally been a one-session combined Solemn Assembly and Sustaining of Church Officers, which makes it difficult to know which of the two might lead the sustaining vote this go-round. An assumption is made here that, since President Oaks did a tremendous job presenting the new area seventies last April that he will continue to do so every April, which would, by extension, mean that President Eyring will lead the sustaining vote each October.
[iv]It had been tradition for one of the 3 presidents of the female-led auxiliaries to conduct the Women’s Session when it rolled around every six months. I am assuming that will continue to be the case. I am likewise assuming that, since that session is now being held on General Conference weekend in October that the entire First Presidency will speak, rather than just one member of it, and that, aside from the First Presidency and one representative from each of the three female-led auxiliaries, no other Church leaders will speak during that session.