Hello again, everyone! Finding myself with some down time this evening, I took the opportunity to analyze my predictions for the April 2021 General Conference and to score the results. I wound up scoring those with a slightly-larger margin of error than usual. That is because I couldn't have anticipated that the Church would have general authorities outside the United States prerecord remarks that were given during that General Conference, nor could I have anticipated that the entire Sunday Morning Session would consist of international speakers and President Neelson.
Smiliarly, I could not have anticipated that the newly-called aarea seventies would be presented in advance of the General Conference weekend. I also had no way to know that the Church would sustain the new members of the Presidency of the Seventy in advance, or that the only area seventies released would be those called as General Authority Seventies. And I definitely couldn't firmly gauge the full impact of COVID-19 on the Churchwide growth (or lack thereof) for the last year.
With all of that in mind, I want to share a look at the scoring information for wthose predictions. As z refresher course, especially for those following along with these results for the first time, for every predictable element, I utilize a 3-point scale. For the section wherein speakers and those conducting each session are listed, if I had the right person in the right slot in the right session, that was 3 points. Some examples of that would be my correct prediction that President Oaks would conduct the first session, and that the first two speakers would be President Nelson and Elder Uchtdorf. So that would be 3 points for each of those correct predictions.
A 2-point score was assigned where I had the correct individual(s) in the correct session(s), but not in the right order. Examples of that are the other two apostles who spoke in the Saturday Morning Session. Although I successfully predicted all 3 apostles, I had Elders Stevenson and Gong in the wrong order in that session. Meanwhile, 1 point was given for getting a speaker correct at any point in the General Conference, even though those individuals were not placed in the correct session and order in which they wound up speaking.
An example of that would be that I predicted the entire First Presidency would speak at the end of the Sunday Morning Session, but Presidents Oaks and Eyring spoke in their custmoary slots. So I was correct about them speaking, but not about when that would happen. Meanwhile, for anything that occurred which was not predicted, in most cases, that resulted in a score of 0. I mentioned "in most cases" because I did allow a slight margin of error on the predictions, given everything I could not have possibly predicted.
That said, on to the changes in Church leadership. Although the changes in the Presidency of the Seventy were not predicted, I gave myself 1 point for correctly predicting that Elder Palmer would be one of the two new members called whenever the change occurred. I also correctly predicted new general authorities, changes in area seventies, and a new Primary General Presidency, and the Church leadership changes were also scored on a curve.
For the statistical report, each element was worth 3 points. If I was within a fair margin of error (such as for the total number of missions and congregations), I scored those two elements as fully accurate. The children of record, convert baptisms, full-time and Church service missionaries were scored on a slight curve since those numbers were unpredictable. And I was fully correct on the total number of temples dedicated, rededicated, and in operation.
And finally, for the temple predictions, if I correctly predicted the exact location for any of the new temples, a score of 3 points were given for each of those. For the rest (where I had the right state or nation, but the wrong exact city), each of those were worth 2 points. As mentioned in the document showing my scoring breakdown, the overall percentage of accuracy on these predictions came out to 64.61%, putting me in the lower end of my usual range of 60-80& accuracy.
Hopefully everything I have laid out here makes sense to you all. Feel free to ask for clarification on anything that may be confusing. I would also just add that I antiicipate the annouoncement of new area leadership assignments for this ear to be made any day now. If that doesn't happen tomorrow, it will probably occur towards he mid-to-late part of next week. Hopefully I can get my list of the most likely changes that could be announced published to this blog before the announcement is offiicially made, but we'll have to see what happens there.
I also continue to monitor all Church news reports and temple updates and will be sure to bring you all word of those as I become aware thereof. That does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do..
Hello again, everyone! Two of our apostles, Elders Quentin L. Cook and Gary E. Stevenson, spoke at virtual graduation ceremonies. Elder Cook was the keynote guest for Ensign College's virtual convocation today, while Elder Stevenson offered his keynote address for BYU-Idaho's convocation yesterday. In addition to Elder Cook, Elder Paul V. Johnson, the current commissioner of Church Education, who will begin serving in the Presidency of the Seventy on August 1, also spoke, as did the president of Ensign College, Bruce C. Kusch. This particular graduation was monumental in that it was the first under the new flagship name of Ensign College:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-04-09/elder-cook-ensign-college-commencement-210128
Elder Stevenson's remarks were also offered to BYU-Idaho graduates in company with Elder Johnson and the president of BYU-Idaho, Henry J. Eyring, who is the son of President Henry B. Eyring, Second Counselor in the First Presidency:
https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-04-09/elder-stevenson-byu-idaho-graduation-fear-210028
I have one other report to pass along, but will do so in a new comment shortly. For now, my thanks once again to you all.
I am back with the other update I mentioned. The latest edition of "This Week on Social" provided each of our apostles and general officers of the Church the opportunity to recap or expand upon the messages they had given last weekend:
Deletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2021-04-09/social-media-general-conference-easter-primary-presidency-210119
By session, those featured included:
Saturday Morning: Church President Russell M. Nelson; his Second Counselor, President Henry B. Eyring; Elders Dieter F. Uchtdorf, Gary E. Stevenson, and Gerrit W. Gong of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles; and Sister Joy D. Jones, who was released in the very next session (Saturday Afternoon) as Primary General President.
Saturday Afternoon: Acting President M. Russell Ballard and Elders Jeffrey R. Holland, Neil L. Andersen, and Dale G. Renlund of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles.
Priesthood Session: The entire First Presidency (Church President Russell M. Nelson and his respective First and Second Counselors, Presidents Dallin H. Oaks and Henry B. Eyring); Elder Quentin L. Cook of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles; and Brother Ahmad S. Corbitt, First Counselor in the Young Men General Presidency.
Sunday Morning: Church President Russell M. Nelson; Elder Ulisses Soares of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles; and Sister Reyna I. Aburto, Second Counselor in the Relief Society General Presidency.
Sunday Afternoon: Church President Russell M. Nelson and his First Counselor, President Dallin H. Oaks; Elders David A. Bednar, D. Todd Christofferson, and Ronald A. Rasband.
Additionally, the following female General Officers of the Church provided their thoughts surrounding Easter that were featured as well: Relief Society General President Sister Jean B. Bingham and her First Counselor, Sister Sharon Eubank; and Sister Becky Craven, Second Counselor in the Young Women General Presidency.
And in view of their release during the Saturday Afternoon Session of General Conference, each of the outgoing members of the Primary General Presidency (General President Sister Joy D. Jones and her respective First and Second Counselors, Sisters Lisa L. Harknss and Cristina B. franco) expressed gratitude for their opportunity to serve, extended a welcome to the new Primary General Presidency members (General President Sister Camille N. Johnson and her respective First and Second Counselors, Sisters Susan H. Porter and Amy Wright), and shared some parting thoughts.
And the super-sized edition of "This Week on Social" also featured additional thoughts from Young Women General President Sister Bonnie H. Cordon and her First Counselor, Sister Michelle D. Craig.
I am grateful to have been able to learn about these latest updates and pass them along to you all here. I continue to monitor all such updates and will be sure to pass those along as I become aware thereof. My thanks once again to you all.
The Newsroom has provided information about the Church's response to the recent volcanic eruption in St. Vincent and the Grenardines, an island nation in the Caribbean Area of the Church:
Deletehttps://news-jm.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/response-of-the-church-of-jesus-christ-during-volcano-eruption-in-saint-vincent
My thanks once again to you all.
Updates have been provided on the Auckland New Zealand Temple and the renovation process for the St. George Utah Temple:
Deletehttps://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/auckland-new-zealand-temple/
https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/st.-george-utah-temple/
Additionally, a set of photographs taken at some point in March but only recently submitted to the Church temples site show that formal full-scale construction efforts are now underway for the Bengaluru India Temple:
https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/bengaluru-india-temple/
The current completion estimate for that temple is listed as late 2023-early 2024. With the latest update provided on the Antofgasta Chile Temple, hopefully that one will be one of the next to see full-scale construction begin. And if that proves to be correct, only the Coban Guatemala and Harare Zimbabwe Temples will still have full-scale efforts pending. My thanks once again to you all.
Hello again, everyone! On this Saturday, the Church News has published the text of the new message that will be offered by Brother Lloyd Newell tomorrow in the hybrid "Music and the Spoken Word" broadcast that will combine the new message with previously-performed musical selctions:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/living-faith/2021-04-10/music-the-spoken-word-great-power-in-every-human-heart-210086
Additionally, major updates have been noted on the construction progress for the Bangkok Thailand Temple:
https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/bangkok-thailand-temple/
Additionally, quite a few adjustments have been made to the completion order and general completion estimate for several temples, with those changes, and the resulting reordering of some temples, being adjusted as follows:
Mid-2022 (no change): Saratoga Springs Utah
Mid-to-late 2022: Abidjan Côte d'Ivoire
Late 2022: Richmond Virginia
Late 2022-early 2023: Bangkok Thailand, Urdaneta Philippines, Lima Peru Los Olivos, Feather River California, Layton Utah, Brasilia Brazil, Bentonville Arkansas, Orem Utah.
Early 2023: Auckland New Zealand, McAllen Texas, Moses Lake Washington, Okinawa Japan
Having noted these changes, I need to reiterate that the queue of temples which are now or may soon be under construction will suerely continue to fluctuate in their positions in the queue and in terms of their general completion estimates.
These time-frame adjustmnts also led me to tweak my list of temples for which a new president has been or may yet be called at any point this year. Those adjusted updates can be found in the following document:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1MpJO3ESKh0h0fvU93GcYOn1M6dIFmY7QnJ67sIeij_A/edit?usp=sharing
My thanks once again to you all.
Hello again, everyone! As I've mentioned previously, President Nelson and his counselors marked their 3-year anniversary of leading the Church on January 14, and the Church News has continued to provide periodic updated content in view of that milestone. On this Sabbath Day, a video of special highlights of the prophet's ministry, as covered by the Church News, has been provided:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-04-11/president-nelson-video-documentary-first-three-years-210215
My thanks once again to you all for your continued interest and ongoing support.
Following a one-week hiatus (due to General Conference coverage), the Church News resumed their weekly publication of "In Case You Missed It", which takes a look back at the top 9 developments which were covered in the last week:
Deletehttps://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2021-04-11/week-in-review-elder-holland-rev-teal-elder-cook-ensign-college-primary-leaders-210191
My thanks once again to you all.
Hello again, everyone! After no new temple reopening updates were reported last Monday, I wasn't sure what was going on with that. But those updates have resumed today, and it appears that the one-week hiatus on those announcements was done to not detract from the announcement of new temples last weekend.
ReplyDeleteSo that brings us to the developments announced today. And the reason for reporting them here in the comments section of this post rather than in a new post for today is that the updates are confirmations of previously-announced details relating to those reopening shifts.
Firstly, there was one new announcement that is not breaking news: the Philadelphia Pennsylvania Temple first transitioned to phase 2 on August 31, 2020. Less than 3 months later (I believe that would have been sometime around early-to-mid November), that temple went back to phase 1 due to local COVID-19 concerns and restrictions. With those conditions having since cleared, the Philadelphia Pennsylvania Temple resumes its phase 2 status, effective immediately. It appears that, while that shift was acknowledged in the Church News coverage, their temple reopening status tracker shows the original date of August 31, 2020 as the beginning of phase 2.
Meanwhile, effective today, 7 temples move from phase 2 to phase 3, allowing the performance of all living ordinances in the phase 2 priority order, and appointments to perform ordinances for the dead on a limited scale.
DeleteThe 7 temples transitioning to phase 3 as of today include the following: 1 in the Africa Central Area (Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo); 2 in the Africa South Area (Durban and Johannesburg, both in South Africa); 2 in the Africa West Area (Aba Nigeria and Accra Ghana); 1 in the Asia North Area (Fukuoka Japan); and 1 in the Caribbean Area (Santo Domingo Dominican Republic).
As also previously announced, the Church is reopening a total of 17 temples, effective today, in phase 2-B, which allows the performance of all living ordinances in priority order, but also reopens the baptistries for scheduled proxy work. By area, that applies to the following temples:
Europe: London and Preston, both in England
North America Central: Boise and Meridian, both in Idaho
North America Southwest: 3 in Arizona (Snowflake, The Gila Valley, and Tucson); and 1 more apiece in Nevada (Reno), Utah (Monticello, which falls under the North America Southwest Area), and Wyoming (Star Valley).
Utah: Bountiful, Brigham City, Draper, Jordan River, Logan, Ogden, Oquirrh Mountain and Salt Lake (which is closed for renovation, but will allow baptisms for the dead on a scheduled basis, which will not interfere for the time being with the renovation process).
And 2 weeks from today (on April 26), the Church will reopen 22 additional temples in phase 2-B. By area, those include the following temples:
DeleteNorth America Central: Billings Montana, Bismarck North Dakota, St. Louis Missouri and Winter Quarters Nebraska
North America Northeast: Toronto Ontario
North America Southeast: the 2 temples in Tennessee (Memphis and Nashville) and Baton Rouge Louisiana
North America Southwest: 3 in Arizona (Gilbert, Mesa, and Phoenix); plus Albuquerque New Mexico and Las Vegas Nevada
North America West: 2 in Washington state (Columbia River and Spokane)
South America Northwest: Cochabamba Bolivia
Utah: Cedar City, Manti, Mount Timpanogos, Payson, Provo City Center, Provo, St. George, and Vernal
Please note that the Mesa Arizona and St. George Utah Temples are also both closed for renovation, but that the usage of those baptistries for the time being will not impact the renovation plans or progress on either temple.
These updates mean that, as of next Monday (April 19), the Church will have 8 temples closed for renovations (although 3 of those, Mesa Arizona, Salt Lake and St. George Utah, as noted above, will each reopen their baptistries for proxy work by April 26); 1 (Kyiv Ukraine) which has not yet reopened in any phase since its closure last year; 10 for which reopening has been paused (9 of those had reached phase 2, with 1 other that had been in phase 1); 6 remaining in phase 1; 87 in phase 2 (which will drop to 65 on April 26); 30 in phase 2-B (which will increase to 52 on April 26); and the remaining 26 are in phase 3.
DeleteHere is the Church News article outlining these changes:
https://www.thechurchnews.com/temples/2021-04-12/lds-temples-open-worldwide-phased-reopening-183918
The Church News also updated their temple reopening status tracker:
https://www.thechurchnews.com/temples/2021-04-12/temple-reopening-status-tracker-worldwide-199279
And the Newsroom updated the official article on which they are tracking these updates as well:
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/first-presidency-limited-reopening-temples
My thanks once again to you all for your continued interest and ongoing support.
Also, updates have been provided on two South American temples (Quito Ecuador and Brasilia Brazil):
Deletehttps://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/quito-ecuador-temple/
https://churchofjesuschristtemples.org/brasilia-brazil-temple/
My thanks once again to you all.
The Church News shared an article about a development reported last week by the Jamaican Newsroom. I am including the link to the Newsroom article followed by the link to the Church News article:
Deletehttps://news-jm.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/latter-day-saints-evacuated-and-safe-in-saint-vincent-as-volcano-erupts
https://www.thechurchnews.com/global/2021-04-12/st-vincent-la-soufriere-volcano-chapel-shelter-evacuees-210248
My thanks once again to you all.
The usage for each temple during the phased reopenings have so far been consigned to each temple's district. The status for St. George, Salt Lake, and Mesa mean that those living in those respective districts can sign up to do baptisms in nearby temples that are moving to phase 2-B since their assigned temples are closed for renovation and nearby temples are available.
ReplyDeleteHi, Eric. Based on what you shared above, I looked at the articles in question again, and you are correct. Don't know how I got confused on that point. It makes sense that the 2-B status for Mesa, St. George, and Salt Lake pertains to the districts rather than to the temples themselves. I appreciate your clarification and correction there, Eric. Thanks for stopping by to mention that. Nice catch.
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