April 2018 General Conference Predictions Alterations: Part Three---Quorum of the Twelve Speaking Order

Hello again, everyone! I am back with the third post in the series I am doing to cover how the changes in the leading quorums of the Church have changed my predictions for the April 2018 General Conference. In this post, I will share an updated version of the table I keep updated to show how recently each current member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles has spoken in each of the five general sessions of General Conference.

Before I do so, I am proceeding on the assumption that, as stated in an earlier post, we will have two members each of the Quorum speak during the Saturday Morning and Sunday Afternoon Sessions, 3 others in the Saturday Afternoon Session, 1 during the Priesthood Session, and the remaining 4 (including the two newest Quorum members) during the Sunday Morning Session.

Based on what that table shows, I present the following as the likely order in which the current members of the Quorum of the Twelve may speak during this next General Conference.

	SAM	SAA	SPH	SUM	SUA
Ballard	Oct 2015*	Apr 2017	Apr 2015	Oct 2016	Oct 2017
Holland	Oct 2017	Apr 2017	Oct 2016	Apr 2015	Apr 2016*
Uchtdorf	Oct 2017 (FP)	Apr 2017 (FP)	Oct 2017 (FP)	Apr 2017 (FP)	Apr 2007*
Bednar	Oct 2013	Apr 2016*	Apr 2017	Oct 2017	Oct 2016
Cook	Oct 2015	Oct 2017	Oct 2014	Apr 2016*	Apr 2017
Christofferson	Oct 2017	Oct 2016*	Oct 2012	Apr 2016	Apr 2017
Andersen	Oct 2016	Apr 2017	Oct 2015	Apr 2013*	Oct 2017
Rasband	Apr 2014 (Pres of Seventy)*	Oct 2017	Apr 2010 (Pres of Seventy)	Apr 2017	Oct 2016
Stevenson	Apr 2016	Oct 2017	Oct 2012 (PB)*	Oct 2015	Apr 2017
Renlund	Apr 2017	Apr 2015 (GA Seventy)*	Oct 2017	Oct 2015	Oct 2016
New apostle #1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A*	N/A
New apostle #2	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A*	N/A

Ballard	SAM1	SAM	Ballard (1 is 1)*
Holland	SUA2		Rasband (8 is 2)
Uchtdorf	SUA1	SAA	Christofferson (6 is 3)
Bednar	SAA3		Renlund (10 is 4)
Cook	SUM4		Bednar (4 is 5)
Christofferson	SAA1	SPH	Stevenson (9 is 6)
Andersen	SUM1	SUM	Cook (6 is 7)
Rasband	SAM2		New apostle #1 (11 is 8)
Stevenson	SPH		New apostle #2 (12 is 9)
Renlund	SAA2		Andersen (7 is 10)
New apostle #1	SUM2	SUA	Uchtdorf (3 is 11)
New apostle #2	SUM3		Holland (2 is 12)

When adding the number of the apostle who spoke to the number representing the order in which they are, is the resulting figure odd or even?       
Odd: 7

Even: 5   

As you can see, since President Ballard has not spoken during the Saturday Morning Session within the last four General Conferences, so it would make sense to me if he was the first speaker following the Solemn Assembly. And since Elder Rasband is the only other known Quorum member that has not spoken in that session within the last four General Conferences (and has thus also not done so at all since his call to the apostleship), it seems safe to assume that he will be the other apostle to speak during that session.

Meanwhile, Elders Christofferson, Renlund, and Bednar seem to be the three most likely to speak during the Saturday Afternoon Session. Elder Renlund has not spoken during that session since his call to the apostleship, though he did so as a General Authority Seventy in the conference prior to his call. 

And since it has been a while (if it has occurred at all) since an apostle who has not spoken in the Saturday Afternoon Session has been the first speaker when that first opportunity comes, it is a near certainty (but not guaranteed) that Elder Renlund will not be the first member of the Quorum to speak in this session.And since the last Quorum member to speak in that session has typically been one of the four most senior Quorum members, by process of elimination, Elder Renlund is more likely to be the second member of that Quorum to speak during that session.

Between Elders Bednar and Christofferson, only Elder Bednar is among the four most senior members of that Quorum, so if the pattern holds, he would be the last of the three to speak, which, by process of elimination, leaves Elder Christofferson as the most likely of the three to speak first.

Regarding the priesthood session, before last October's general conference, I indicated that, while it was traditional for new apostles to speak during the priesthood session within 2-4 conferences following their call, I was unsure how soon we might see Elders Rasband, Stevenson, and Renlund give their first addresses in that session. Elder Renlund was asked to do so last time, and with him and Elder Rasband potentially speaking in the prior two sessions, that leaves only Elder Stevenson, so it seems likely that he will represent the Quorum in speaking during this Priesthood Session.

With the two new apostles likely speaking during the Sunday Morning Session, that leaves the identity of the two veteran apostles that might also speak during that session unknown. With only Elders Holland, Uchtdorf, Cook, and Andersen left, we see on the chart above that Elder Andersen spoke in the Sunday Afternoon Session last October, and Elder Cook did the previous April, so that leaves Elders Holland and Uchtdorf for the Sunday Afternoon Session.

And with Elders Andersen and Cook therefore being the likely veteran apostles to speak during the Sunday Morning Session, the question is, which of the two might be the first Quorum member speaking in that session. Since it has been somewhat traditional in previous instances when four members of that Quorum spoke during this session for the more senior of the two to speak last, some may think it would be logical to assume that Elder Andersen will speak first. 

But in looking back at the history from which this information was assembled, in April 2013, Elder Andersen was the first of the two members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles to speak during that session. And Elder Cook was the last of the two Quorum members to speak during the Sunday Morning Session in April 2016. 

With all of that in mind, it makes more sense to me that Elder Cook, who spoke last last time, would speak first, and that Elder Andersen, who spoke first last time, would be last this time.

That brings us to the final session of this General Conference. Since, as already noted, Elders Holland and Uchtdorf make the most sense as the probable two speakers in that session, the question becomes, which of the two might speak first? Since it has been longer since Elder Uchtdorf spoke in that session, it would make sense if he were the first of the two to speak during that session for this conference. 

Some may contend that the last time Elder Holland spoke in this session, the fact that he was the last of the Quorum to do so for that conference should necessitate a switch this time, but the fact that Elder Uchtdorf has spoken in that session less recently outweighs that argument, in my opinion.

But this information is no more and no less than my own personal opinion. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.