Stokes Sounds Off: Initial Predictions for the October 2019 General Conference: Part Two—Changes in General Church Leadership

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Thursday, May 16, 2019

Initial Predictions for the October 2019 General Conference: Part Two—Changes in General Church Leadership

Hello again, everyone! I am back now with the second post in this series, to cover the changes in Church leadership which I am anticipating will be announced during the October 2019 General Conference. The reaasoning for these changes is provided in the relevant notes. I will return in within the next hour or two with my initial list of potential locations in which a new temple could be announced, on which I am putting the finishing touches, That list will constitute the third and final part of this mini-series of posts about the upcoming General Conference.

The projected changes speak for themselves and follow below. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly-added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.



Predictions for Changes in Church Leadership
General Authority Seventies: Elders Wilford W. Andersen, Kim B. Clark, Lawrence E. Corbridge, Claudio R. M. Costa, Bradley D. Foster, O. Vincent Haleck, Donald L. Hallstrom, Steven E. Snow, and Larry Y. Wilson released and granted emeritus status[i]; Elder Steven E. Snow released and Elder LeGrand R. Curtis Jr. sustained as Church Historian and Recorder; Elder Kim B. Clark released and Elder Paul V. Johnson sustained as Commissioner of Church Education[ii]
Area Seventies: The following area seventies may be released for the following reasons:
Called as mission presidents: Aley K. Auna, Walter Chatora, J. Kevin Ence, Jose L. Isaguierre,  Bryan R. Larsen, W. Jean-Pierre Lono, Khumbulani Mdletshe, Hoi Seng Leonard Woo
Called as temple president: Milan F. Kunz; Yutaka Onda; ’Aisake K. Tukuafu
Longest-tenured[iii]: Ruben Acosta, Frederick O. Akinbo, Omar A. Alvarez, Grant C. Bennett, Wilson be Calderon, Hernando Camargo, M.T. Ben Davis, Robert J. Dudfield, E. Xavier Espinoza, Meliula M. Fata, Sam M. Galvez, Claude R. Gamiette, John A. Koranteng, Jose E. Maravilla, Joaquim J. Moreira, Adeyinka J. Ojediran, Gennady A. Podvodov, Abraham E. Quero, Francisco J. Ruiz de Mendoza, Gordon H. Smith, Raul S. Villanueva, Hoi Seng (Leonard) Woo, and Kevin J. Worthen[iv]


[i]In recent years, the Church has released General Authority Seventies when they reach the age of 70. With the first 9 Brethren listed above having been born in 1949, they will all be released.
[ii]On April 10, 2019, the First Presidency announced these changes to the Church Historian and Recorder and the Commissioner of Church Education. Since both assignments are sustained positions, these changes should be presented for a formal sustaining during this General Conference.
[iii]While the length of service for area seventies have varied according to inspiration from the prophet, the following list includes those area seventies who have served for the last 5 years or longer (which includes those called before October 2014 who have not yet been released).
[iv]Regarding Elder Worthen, since he currently serves as President of BYU-Provo, he might not be released until his assignment as such concludes, or until he may subsequently be called as a General Authority Seventy.

17 comments:

  1. Hello again, everyone! I wanted to note here that, while I have been hard at work on readying my list of temples to post here as a third part in this mini-series, but haven't yet finished that. Therefore, in addition to coverage of the devotional addresses in Kona by the Nelsons and Gongs, I will hope to be able to publish the final post in this series sometime tomorrow afternoon or evening. Stay tuned for that, and thanks again to you all.

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  2. Hello again, everyone! A couple of additional notes on my predictions for the changes in general Church leadership. First of all, I realized that I had sized the cells for the relevant table incorrectly, so that has been fixed. I am also in the process of seeing which area seventies have served for 5 years or more. So far, I have found one that is still serving, Elder Kevin J. wortheen, the current BYU-Provo President, who was sustained in 2010. He may either continue to serve as an area seventy until his BYU assignment concludes, or conclude his tenure at BYU as a General Authority Seventy at some point. Based on what else I find, I will add any others to the list who have served longer than 5 or 6 years. Thanks again, everyone!

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  3. Here is the list of longest serving Area Seventies listed by conference they were called:

    April 2010
    Kevin J. Worthen

    April 2012
    Hernando Camargo
    Adeyinka A. Ojediran
    Abraham E. Quero
    Aley K. Auna Jr.
    Gordon H. Smith

    April 2013
    Ruben Acosta
    Frederick O. Akinbo
    Omar A. Alvarez
    Grant C. Bennett
    Wilson B. Calderon
    M.T. Ben Davis
    Robert A. Dryden
    Robert J. Dudfield
    E. Xavier Espinoza
    Meliula M. Fata
    Sam M. Galvez
    Claude R. Gamiette
    John A. Koranteng
    Jose E. Maravilla
    Alfredo Miron
    Joaquim J. Moreira
    Francisco J. Ruiz de Mendoza
    Aisake K. Tukuafu
    Raul S. Villanueva
    Hoi Seng (Leonard) Woo

    October 2013
    Gennady N. Podvodov

    April 2014
    Julio C. Acosta
    Blake R. Alder
    Alain L. Allard
    Taiichi Aoba
    Carlos F. Arredondo
    Vladimir N. Astashov
    Jorge T. Becerra
    Michael H. Bourne
    Romulo V. Cabrera
    Jose C.F. Campos
    Nicolas Castaneda
    Walter Chatora
    Zeno Chow
    J. Kevin Ence
    K. Mark Frost
    Mauricio G. Gonzaga
    Leonard D. Greer
    Jose L. Isaguirre
    A. Johan Johansson
    Tae Gul Jung
    Wisit Khanakham
    Sergio L. Krasnoselsky
    Milan F. Kunz
    Bryan R. Larsen
    Geraldo Lima
    W. Jean-Pierre Lono
    Khumbulani Mdletshe
    Dale H. Munk
    Eduardo A. Norambuena
    Yutaka Onda
    Raimundo Pacheco De Pinho
    Marco A. Rais
    Steven K. Randall
    Alexey V. Samaykin
    Edwin A. Sexton
    Raul H. Spitale
    C. Walter Trevino
    Juan A. Urra

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  4. Scott Shipley, thank you for doing that legwork for me. With your database that you've mentioned keeping of this information, you'd certainly be able to speak in response to the factor of longest-serving area seventies. Based on the specific names you mentioned, I did some more research on my end. it appears that Elder Dryden was released last October, and that Elder Miron passed away in November of 2017, and is thus no longer serving. See the following sources for verification:

    https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/leadership-changes-announced-october-2018-general-conference (Dryden's release)
    https://www.thechurchnews.com/archive/2017-12-08/death-33058 (Elder Miron's 2017 death)

    It also appears that Elder Johansson is now going by Adolf J. Johansson, as verified by the following source, among others:

    https://www.mormonnewsroom.org.nz/article/church-representatives-meet-with-fiji-sun-editor-and-staff

    Other than that, I have confirmed that the other Brethren you mentioned are still serving. I believe Elder Worthen may continue to serve either until his tenure as BYU-Provo President concludes, or until his subsequent call as a General Authority, whichever might occur first. Also, since Elder Samaykin will continue serving in the Europe East Area Presidency at least until August 2020, he likely will not be released.

    Thanks for doing the legwork on this for me, and hope this information is helpfu to you.

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  5. Hello again, everyone! Just a few additional items I wanted to share here. A couple of reports have been provided on the Kona Hawaii devotional at which the Nelsons and Gongs spoke yesterday:

    https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/president-nelson-pacific-ministry-2019-hawaii
    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2019-05-17/pacific-tour-president-nelson-hawaii-temple-49847

    An article marking 135 years since the dedication of the Logan Utah Temple (which includes a mention of the renovation plans currently under development) was published as well:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/history-revisited/2019-05-17/135-years-ago-the-logan-utah-temple-was-dedicated-here-are-some-fun-facts-you-might-not-know-about-it-49852

    Another edition of "This Week on Social" was the first more lengthy article that we have seen within the last month or two, and it featured posts on a wide variety of subjects from the following Church leaders: Church President Russell M. Nelson; President Dallin H. Oaks, First Counselor in the First Presidency; Elders Dieter F. Uchtdorf, David A. Bednar, Quentin L. Cook, and Gary E. Stevenson, of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles; Sister Michelle D. Craig, First Counselor in the Young Women General Presidency; Sister Sharon Eubank, First Counselor in the Relief Society General Presidency.

    The article in question is well worthy of your time and attention:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2019-05-17/elder-uchtdorf-sister-uchtdorf-mother-49853

    Final Church news note: It is currently around 1:40 PM Saturday May 18 in Apia Samoa. The Nelsons and Gongs are no doubt there now, and I'd anticipate the devotional for Church members there will be held within the next 5-8 hours or so. As soon as a report about that is available, I will be sure to share it here.

    In the meantime, many sources I have available for temple information provided an update today which indicates the completion of the renovation process for the Asuncion Paraguay Temple will occur prior to the end of this year. I will need to do more research on my end to determine whether or not that means the temple will be rededicated before the end of this year. More to come on that when I am able to post my latest revised estimates for known temple events, which are still a work in progress. My thanks once again to you all.

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  6. `Hello again, everyone! Both the Church News and the Newsroom have provided coverage of the Saturday devotional at which the Nelsons and Gongs spoke in Apia Samoa, which can be found at the following two web addresses:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2019-05-18/pacific-tour-president-nelson-samoa-devotional-tuimalealiifano-vaaletoa-sualauvi-ii-49865
    https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/president-nelson-pacific-ministry-2019-samoa

    I'd just add here that, one of the most interesting takeaways from the reports of that devotional is the expressed testimony of a devout Catholic regarding his knowledge that President Nelson is the prophet of God. To my knowledge, this is the first such acknoledgement in that respect from someone not of our faith. President Nelson's tour continues for the next week, and I will provide reports on those as they become available. My thanks once again to you all.

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  7. Thanks for the info. Much like you I have multiple databases and I updated one but not the other

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  8. Scott, I don't necessarily consider my collection of files a database, but I am grateful to now have an appropriate outlet to share data I have tracked for the last decade or more. That said, I do know how easy it is to have similar data in two places and thus have it current in one place and outdated in another. Within the last coupl of weeks, I have ha to use various ways and means to ensure my list of area seventies is correct and up-to-date. There is nothing so constant as change, at least as far as the data I personally track is concerned.

    That said, Scott, i did have a question for you: In addition to the new GA seventies called last month, I have in my notes that the following veteran General Authority Seventies who have not spoken in General Conference within the last 5 years or so: Walter F. Gonzalez, David S. Baxter, Scott D. Whiting, Anthony D. Perkins and Marcus B. Nash. Note that I am not including those sustaine in April 2014 on that list. Aside from that, have I missed anything? Thanks, Scott.

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    Replies
    1. Those you listed last spoke in 2012, Elder Baxter in April and the others in October. Enrique R. Falabella, Christophel Golden Jr., and Erich W. Kopischke last spoke in April 2013 and in October of 2013 we have Edward Dube, Timothy J. Dyches, Randy D. Foster, Kevin S. Hamilton, S. Gifford Nielsen, Adrian Ochoa, Arnulfo Valenzuela, and Terrence M. Vinson.


      If we go back to 5 years ago (2014) April conference had Elders Marcos A. Aidukaitis, Lawrence E. Corbridge, and Michael John U. Teh. This October will be five years we heard Carlos A. Godoy, Eduardo Gavarett, Larry S. Kacher, Jorg Klebingat, Hugo E. Martinez, and Chi Hong (Sam) Wong.

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    2. Thanks for the additional information, Scott. My main problem in terms of predicting General Authority Seventy speakers is that there are only a certain number of speaking slots that aren't taken by the First Presidency, Quorum of the Twelve, Presiding Bishopric, Presidency of the Seventy, or general officers of the Church. The Women's Session also impacts the number of speakers in the other sessions. It used to be a tradition that 8 General Authority Seventies would speak on average each April, with 9 each October. That number has shrunk in recent years. I only count 5 that did so last October, and 7 last month. So in my predictions this go-round, I narrowed it down to the top 6, including 3 who were sustained last month in General Conference, and Elders Baxter, Whiting, and Perkins.

      The one thing I am not sure about is whether or not Elder Baxter should be included. Unless things have changed, the last I heard, he was on medical leave from his full-time service as a result of battling cancer. Since he has not been granted emeritus status, I assume the Brethren are anticipating his return at some point.

      I have commented here previously that President Nelson may be recognizing that General Conferences have become somewhat routine, and might thus be changing things up periodically in terms of typical patterns so as to keep us all our toes to prevent complacency or lack of attention. If that is the case, then it may get harder to figure out who might speak when.

      In the interim, thanks for the thorough information. I am putting my focus on those who have not spoken since April 2013. When Elder Teh gave his second talk as a General Authority, he mentioned that GA Seventies are assigned to speak roughly every five years, so there are some that are now overdue. But I do anticipate all of the Brethren you mentioned by name will speak within the next 2-3 General Conferences, if not sooner.

      Also, wasn't sure whether or not you are taking into account that Elder Godoy is now in the Presidency of the Seventy, and so the rotation whereby he speaks might be a little different for the duration of that assignment, which may last around a decade. And in terms of the Presidency of the Seventy, since President Nelson became Church President, only one member of that Presidency has spoken per conference. Elder Lynn G. Robbins spoke during that conference, and for the subsequent October and April, the First Presidency called on the two members who began serving immediately to succeed Elders Gong and Soares. So I imagine that within the next 3 General Conferences, the 3 members of the Presidency whose service began last August will be tapped to speak.

      It is certainly interesting to see how General Conference patterns have changed over the years, and I am grateful to you for the insights you provided. Thanks for taking time to share those thoughts, Scott.

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  9. Hello again, everyone! The Church News and the Newsroom have shared reports about President Nelson's visit to Sydney Australia, which took place yesterday. The following articles cover that visit:

    https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/president-nelson-pacific-ministry-2019-australia
    https://www.thechurchnews.com/leaders-and-ministry/2019-05-19/president-nelson-in-australia-to-be-happy-chose-the-way-of-the-lord-he-tells-sydney-devotional-attendees-49878

    And the Church news has also shared an article covering today's one-session private rededication of the Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple, which occurred this morning under the direction of President Henry B. Eyring, Second Counselor in the First Presidency:

    https://www.thechurchnews.com/latest/2019-05-19/rededicating-oklahomas-spiritual-refuge-49888

    I continue to monitor all Church news and temple developments and will do my level best to keep passing word of those along to you all as I receive it. Thanks again, everyone!

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  10. The Newsroom just provided coverage for the rededication of the Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple:

    https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/oklahoma-city-oklahoma-temple-is-rededicated

    Thanks again, everyone!

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  11. Alright here's the situation. Pres Nelsons Pacific Tour we know that Wellington New Zealand wasn't planned at first with the press release only mentioning Auckland City. Now look at the current released articles on Newsroom which mention Wellington. My guess a temple will be built here, announced as we see this pattern with apostles who visit locales with a future temple then announce.

    Here's the original Newsroom article mentioning only Auckland was planned for a visit.
    https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/president-and-sister-nelson-prepare-pacific-ministry

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  12. Hello, William, and thanks for stopping by to comment. The previously-unannonced stop in Wellington (and the prospect that President Nelson might potentially be looking for temple sites there) was discussed in another thread. In that thread, someone correctly observed that Wellington is the capital city of New Zealand, which makes sense, since a Church President often pays courtesy calls to governmental leaders when visiting international capital cities. Arrangements have been made for him to meet with the Prime Minister of New Zealand, whose offices (in addition to a residence, if memory serves) are in Wellington. Interestingly enough, the current Prime minister is Jacinda Ardern, who is a former member of the Church. Her uncle is Elder Ian S. Ardern, who is currently First Counselor in the Pacific Area Presidency (although he will be reassigned as the Area President effective August 1)/

    So the visit for the Nelsons and the Gongs apparently has more to do with a courtesy call to Prime Minister Ardern and members of her cabinet than it might with a potential future temple. In the interim, if and when New Zealand does get a second temple, I have information indicating that will likely be announced for Christchurch.

    You can read the earlier thread on this at the following blog post:

    http://stokessoundsoff.blogspot.com/2019/05/breaking-news-elder-soares-to-preside.html?showComment=1558118338876#c2213468465952644336

    In the meantime, thanks for bringing that up here. I had hoped that President Nelson would use part of his time at previous stops on the tour looking at potential sites for the Pago Pago and Neiafu Temples, but it appears that if any temple is given the priority for this visit, it will just be the one in Auckland, for which I understand he will be looking at sites while stopped in Auckland on Tuesday. Hope this information is helpful to you.

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  13. I read several years ago that the plan for the stake center and MTC presented to the city of Aukland New Zealand included a rendering that looked like a temple but did not call it that. And listed it a future instruction center or something like that.

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    Replies
    1. That's correct, Chris. The Church has reportedly held that land and the plans (which are termed as a "Special Project" site) for at least the last decade, but probably more. The odds are very good that the Church will indeed build the temple on that spot. But whether or not to do so will ultimately be President Nelson's prerogative. I think it's safe to say that in 90% of cases where the Church has held land in reserve like that, those parcels are where the temples wind up being built. However, there is at least that 10% chance that President Nelson, after looking over the options, could conclude it needs to go elsewhere. Not a very high likelihood, and I would be very much surprised if the temple does not go on that plot of land, but there is always a chance it won't.

      In the meantime, I look forward to seeeing what exactly is done by President Nelson during his time in Auckland on Tuesday. And I also hope with all my heart that we will soon hear additional temple news of some kind in the near future. More is to come, I am sure, so we should all stay tuned. Thank you, as always, Chris, for taking time to comment.

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  14. Just a point of general information: After the excellent feedback provided above by Scott Shipley regarding area seventies, I reworked the list of potential changes in Church leadership, and posted the reworked version above in place of the original content. Please let me know in that respect if I have missed anything. In the meantime, I should have my list of potential temple locations for October 2019 posted here within the next few hours or less, and I also haave plans to share some Church news and temple updates which have corssed my radar as well within the next 24 hours as well. Stay tuned for all of that, and thanks again, everyone!

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