Stokes Sounds Off: 10/14/21

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Thursday, October 14, 2021

Initial Predictions for the April 2022 General Conference

Hello again, everyone! Given the fact that no breaking Church news or temple deelopments have been shared thus far this week.I was able to spend a good chunk of time yesterday getting the initial version of my predictions for the April 2022 General Conference. Those predictions include 3 separate segments: the potential speaker lineup, a list of changes in general Church leadership (which also includes my estimates for the numbers that may be featured in the 2021 Statistical Report, and my preliminary list of locations in which a temple seems most likely to be announced.

A bit of context might be helpful. On the speaker lineup, I have used a similar (if not identical) template for each featured speaker. In view of the fact that so many GA Seventies spoke during the October 2021 General Conference, it appears more likely than not that the April 2022 General Conference will follow a similar format, but with Presidents Oaks and Eyring switching speaker slots this time around. 

It seems likely that 3 apostles each will speak Saturday Morning,Saturday Afternoon, and Sunday Morning, with 2 members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles speaking in the final session, and the one remaining apostle will speak Saturday Evening. 

It also seems likely to me that, with the Church having shortened the amount of time alloted for the Sustaining of Church Officers, and for the duration of all talkgs given by our apostles, that there will be ample room for one member of the Presidency of the Seventy (Kearon), one Presiding Bishopric member (Causse), and 5 General Officers of the Church.

Additionally, in view of the fact that 15 current GA Seventies spoke earlier this month, the adjusted talk lengths for all apostles will leave room for about that same number of GA Seventies. There is only one current GA Seventy (Elder Adeyinka A. Ojediran) who was sustained in April 2020 but has not yet spoken in General Conference, All GA Seventies called in April of this year spoke for the first time in General Conference earlier this month.

As a result, in addition to Elder Ojediran, my predictions for other GA Seventy speakers does not take Elder Baxter into consideration, since he is still reportedly on medical leave. But the next name on that list of when each current GA Seventy last spoke to us is Elder Randy D. Funk, who gave his first address as a GA Seventy during the Priesthood Session in October 2013. 

I went down through the list, and with the way the speaker predictions apeear to be set up going forward, I was able to plan out a scenario that would see every GA Seventy listed between Elder Funk and Elder Hugo Montoya (who gave his first address during the Saturday Afternoon Session of the October 2015 General Conference).

The only notes I have on the changes in general Church leadership are that new GA Seventies are likely to be sustained, with area seventy releases and sustainings conducted in advance, and the release of the Relief Society General Presidency and the calling of new leaders for that organization. The numbers showing up in my projected version of the data likely to be included in the 2021 Statistical Report for the Church are based on both estimates and somewhat elaborate algorithms that are hard to explain.

And with the final document showing the list of locations in which a temple seems most likely to be announced, I eliminated all candidates that had been announced in October. I will be looking to add any locations to the list based on research verifying those choices, or based on any recommendations from you, my readers, who would like to submit feedback for consideration here. With those explanations handled, I am pleased to declare the commenting period for these predictions is now open.

The commenting period will remain in effect until 10:00 PM on Friday April 1, which will then give me a few hours to make any adjustments before General Conference weekend gets underway with the first session on Saturday April 2 at 10:00 AM. I look forward to any feedback any of you might offer on what I've put together. I also continue to monitor all major Church news and temple developments and will bring you all word here of the latest as I can once I become aware of that information.

That does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.