Stokes Sounds Off: 02/20/22

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Sunday, February 20, 2022

UPDATED: April 2022 General Conference Predictions

Hello again, everyone! As I mentioned almost 2 weeks ago, when the First Presidency announced the Women's Session for the April 2022 General Conference, my initial predictions were blown out of the water. Since then, I have reasoned that, if my theory is correct, the determination to hold a women's session was made because this General Conference will come just over two weeks after the 180th anniversary of the establishement of the Relief Society organization. So what might that mean for this General Conference? 

I'm not entirely sure. Any patterns that previously prevailed in the process of rotating speakers in General Conference have literally been blown to smithereens by each of the now-8 markedly-different General Conferences held under President Nelson's dynamic leadership. While there are some patterns, there is also a high degree of unpredictability for each one going forward. 

As I've mentioned in other settings, the different focus of each Saturday Evening Session of General Conference adds even further to the complex process. But for me, admittedly, that also makes it all the more exciting to try and analyze, theorize, and present something even close to what actually happens every six months. Where possible, I have picked up on some factors that have been of assistance to me in crafting the last few versions of those predictions. 

With just under 6 weeks remaining until the April 2022 General Conference, I am pleased to present for your perusal my updated predictions for that conference. Those predictions consist of 3 parts: the potential speaker lineup, the potential changes in general Church leadership (which includes my estimated figures for the Statistical Report), and the usual extensive list of the most likely locations for which a temple could be announced in April. 

As I metnioned recently on the Church Growth Blog, Elder Kevin S. Hamilton, who serves as the Executive Director of the Family History Department, presided at my stake conference in December, where he noted that the Church has over 300 temples in various phases. With a total of 265 now, that means the Church could be looking at announcing at least 35 new temples this year. 

I consider it more likely that we will see a smaller number of temples in April, with a larger number announced in October, to give us that total of at least 35 new ones. As a final note on these revised predictions, I am not including footnotes or endnotes on them this time around.If there is anything in these predictions about which any of you have questions, I'd be happy to address those as they come. 

The commenting period on them remains active through 10:00 PM on Wednesday March 30, which I hope will give me enough time to update and post a final version before the conference officially starts. I look forward to hearing your feedback. In the meantime, that does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines.

I hope any of you who would like to share anything will take your opportunity to “sound off” in the comments below. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

UPDATED: Current Apostolic Data

Hello again, everyone! As most of you are almost certainly aware, I have provided updates on the latest apostolic data (specifically relating to tbeir lifespan or tenure length milestones) roughly every seven weeks. Having last done so on January 2, it is time to publish the newest such data. As with that last update, the first part contains updated data about the age and tenure length records for all 17 Church Presidents, along with updated information on the tenure length records for each of the 28 Presidents of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles.

The first document also shows information on three sets of apostolic groups: the longest-serving First Presidencies (which will not be updated with the First Presidency as presently constituted until 2024), in addition to the longest-serving groups of members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, and groups of all ordained apostles (the First Presidency and Quorum of the Twelve Apostles).  

The latest version of that document also shows when the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles as currently comprised will move up on the list of the longest-serving Quorums of the Twelve Apostles, in addition to specifics on when the current members of that Quorum, along with the current First Presidency, will reach the next milestones on that list.

Meanwhile, the second part of today's update shows the long-form and decimal ages for the members of the current First Presidency, Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, and the apostolic groups overall, in addition to the average ages of each group and apostolic nonagenarians (with 2 of the current 15 apostles being on that list, and the timing noted for when each of the other 13 apostles will join that list).

Hopefully this shared data will be of interest to you all, and again, I offer an open invitation to anyone who has any questions about those documents to ask them here. I will, of course, continue to monitor all Church news updates and temple developments, and will do my level best to bring word of those to you all as I become aware of all such reports. That does it for now. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated, on any post at any time, as long as such comments are made in accordance with the established guidelines. Thank you for the privilege of your time. If you enjoyed what you read here and would like to stay informed of newly added content, please feel free to subscribe. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.