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Thursday, April 12, 2018

Response to Content Posted Recently on the LDS Church Growth Blog--Part One: The Top 10 Dependencies With the Strongest Church Presence Without a Temple in Any Phase

Hello again, everyone! As the title of this post implies, this will be the first post in a miniseries which I will do to share my thoughts about content recently posted on the LDS Church Growth Blog. As an introduction to this series, I just want to establish right off the bat that I have a profound respect and appreciation for the work Matthew Martinich does on that blog, and for those who take time to comment on the things he posts there. That said, there have been a few times (which will likely not be the last) when something that is said by either Matt or those who comment on the topics about which he posts which I feel warrants further analysis from me here on this blog.

Matt recently put up this post, which continues his intermittent series on the top 10 nations or dependencies in the world that have the strongest Church presence but have not yet had a temple announced. I appreciate the work he does to frequently post those, especially when one or two locations previously on his list of the top 10 have a temple subsequently announced in General Conference, which makes it necessary to revisit that list.

While he has done very well to consider the current composition of temple districts and to share unit information that backs up his rationale for each nation's place on the list, I wanted to get more into the numbers behind those picks. So I ran distance calculations between each of those nations and their currently-assigned temple (or, where applicable, those temples announced or under construction that would cover those locations when they are dedicated).

I grouped them in that order, and then, in a note below that list, shared my feelings regarding the order in which those locations might potentially have a temple announced, along with any pertinent information I had available that has led me conclude that any of them could be announced in a different order. The results of that research follows below.

In order to not interrupt the flow of that information, I want to end now as I always do. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

1. Papua New Guinea. Members in Port Moresby travel 2,178 miles to their assigned temple in Suva Fiji, which is more than 10½ times further than the 200 mile distance specified by President Monson. And although the Sydney Australia Temple is slightly closer (at 1,704 miles, which is still 8½ times further than that 200 mile distance), it appears that, for whatever reason, the determination was made to assign the Saints in Papua New Guinea to the more distant temple. It is therefore likely that a temple will be announced in Port Moresby in the near future, especially since land has reportedly been held in reserve for that purpose for a while now.

2. Puerto Rico: Members in San Juan travel 251 miles to reach their assigned temple in Santo Domingo Dominican Republic, which is just above the 200-mile goal. Although there have been significant natural disasters there within the last year, a temple in that nation may just be a matter of time.

3. Kiribati: Members in Tarawa currently travel 1,402 miles to their assigned temple in Suva Fiji, and no other current or potential future temple is closer than that. Since that is over 7 times further than the 200-mile goal that has been set by other Church presidents, a temple in Tarawa could just be a matter of time.

4. Sierra Leone: Members in Freetown currently travel 1,272.4 miles to reach their assigned temple in Accra Ghana (which is a little over 6 times further than the 200-mile goal). Once the temple in the Ivory Coast is built, that distance will be cut to 942.1 miles (which is still over 4½ times further than that 200-mile goal). So a temple in Freetown may just be a matter of time.

5. American Samoa: Members in Pago Pago currently travel 101 miles to their assigned temple in Apia Samoa. Although that temple is within an easy distance (101 miles, which is half as far as the 200-mile goal), it is not impossible to believe that a temple could be built in Pago Pago at some point, with the one question being how soon that might occur.

6. Uganda: Members in Kampala currently travel 2,565.6 miles to their assigned temple in Johannesburg South Africa. That distance will be cut to 1,882.2 miles once the Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Temple is dedicated, and will be cut further to 1,795.5 miles once the temple in Harare Zimbabwe is built and dedicated. But the significant distance cut will occur when the Nairobi Kenya Temple is built and dedicated, which will cut the distance to 404.5 miles. While that is only slightly more than double the 200-mile goal, it is not hard to believe that Kampala could (and likely will) get a temple in the not-too-distant future.

7. Cambodia: Members in Phnom Pehn currently travel 963 miles to their assigned temple in Hong Kong China. Once the Bangkok Thailand Temple is dedicated, that will cut the distance to 413.7 miles, which is just over twice the 200-mile goal. Since the only other announced temple in Asia (for Bengaluru India) will not cut that distance further (as it will be over 10 times further from Phnom Pehn), a temple for Cambodia may simply be a matter of time.

8. Cape Verde: Members in Praia currently travel over 10 times further than the 200 mile goal  (2,125 miles, to be exact) to attend the temple in Madrid Spain. When the Lisbon Portugal Temple is dedicated, that distance will be cut to 1,861 miles, which is still more than 9 times further away than the mileage goal that has been set. For that reason, a temple in Praia may just be a matter of time.

9. Liberia: Saints in Monrovia currently travel almost 5 times further than the 200 mile goal (the exact distance is 973.8 miles) to attend the Accra Ghana Temple. That distance will be cut to 643.5 miles when the Abidjan Ivory Coast Temple is dedicated. If the Church announces and builds a temple in Sierra Leone, that distance would additionally be cut just about in half to 338 miles. While that distance is not even 1.5 times the 200-mile goal, there may be enough reason to believe that a temple in Monrovia could happen sooner rather than later.

10. Madagascar: Saints in Anatananarivo currently travel 3,658 miles to their currently assigned temple in Accra Ghana. That would be cut to 2,390 once the temple in Kinshasa is dedicated (assuming Madagascar would then fall under that district), and it would be cut further once the temple in Harare Zimbabwe is built and dedicated (with that distance being 1,082 miles). But since even that distance is 5 times further than the 200-mile goal, it is not hard to believe that a temple in Madagascar might be announced sooner rather than later.

Final note: Based on the factors mentioned above, and other elements I have studied on my own time, if I had to pick a potential likely order in which any of these nations might have a temple announced, I would do so as follows: Papua New Guinea, Sierra Leone, Cambodia, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Cape Verde, Kiribati, Madagascar, , Liberia, and. It is also interesting to consider that, among these 10 nations, 3 (Kiribati, American Samoa, and Papua New Guinea) are in the Church’s Pacific Area, 2 more are in the Africa Southeast Area (Madagascar and Uganda), 2 are in the Africa West Area (Sierra Leone and Liberia) 1 is in the Caribbean Area (Puerto Rico), 1 other is in the Asia Area (Cambodia), and the remaining 1 is in the Europe Area (Cape Verde). It is also worth noting that Church growth experts have stated that the trends of such growth in Africa is such that the number of current temples within the African continent could potentially double (if not triple or quadruple) within the next 20-30 years or so. It continues to amaze me how the Lord moves his work forward in unexpected ways. Since two of the previous top ten from 2017 saw a temple announced this year (Nicaragua at #1 and Russia at #4), it is not hard to believe that the top ten list will continue to change based on future announcements. And I believe that many (if not all) of these current top ten could potentially have a temple announced within the next 15-30 years, although some will obviously be more imminent.

Miscellaneous Church News Items Reported

Hello again, everyone! I am pleased at this time to bring you several Church News items that had a profound impact on me. Many of them brought my emotions very close to the surface. There is a lot to get to, so let's get started.

First of all, on Tuesday, the Church News reported on an address given by Elder Neil L. Andersen the day before at a BYU-Provo devotional gathering. Elder Andersen used his address to provide more context to the ministering announcement that President Nelson made in the last session of General Conference. Before I share a link to Elder Andersen's address, I have felt a need to point out something:

In many venues of discussion in which I have participated, many people have expressed surprise about the ministering announcement, saying that it is a new concept that will take some getting used to. But in this address given by Elder Holland during the Priesthood Session of the October 2016 General Conference, Elder Holland was very clear about what effective home teaching should look like, with his counsel echoing the oft-repeated phrase of other Church leaders: "Never let a program to be run become more important than a person to be saved." Effective home teaching, if I have understood what the Brethren have said on the subject, was always supposed to be more focused on showing genuine love and concern than it was to be more concerned with just getting it done or sharing an assigned message.

The fact that the Brethren have repeatedly reiterated what effective home teaching should look like and the fact that the concept of home and visiting teaching as we know it has been retired indicates to me that most of the Church is missing the mark on this. The so-called "new practice" of ministering is simply placing greater emphasis on something that should have been done all this time.

Sorry to get on my soapbox there. I have just been so bothered by everyone talking about a "new program" when what has actually been done is to put the idea of caring for our fellow Church members in its' proper perspective. Getting back to Elder Andersen's BYU address, what he said to those in attendance reiterates the idea that it is not a "new program" at all, but rather a refinement of something that was misunderstood or being done improperly. You can read more about his remarks here.

Having taken a chunk of time on one news story, I will try to be more concise in covering the others I wanted to share. In an effort to better serve the needs of members worldwide, the Church has noted additional changes to temple garment styles for endowed Church members. Next, with it being early Friday morning now London time, the Church News has reported on President Nelson's visit with members and missionaries. It is great to see his enthusiasm, vigor, and desire to be out among the people of the Church.

Next, the Church News has covered the publication of the next volume in the Joseph Smith Papers Project. The latest volume covers the Saints efforts to recover and seek governmental redress from their persecutions in Missouri after they relocated to Illinois. Among other interesting insights, the newest volume provides more context for the response of US President Martin Van Buren when he told early Church leaders that come to see him: "Your cause is just, but I can do nothing for you." That was an intriguing article to read.

And rounding out these newest articles I wanted to cover, there are two others. First, we have one that highlights the reactions of Church members in Russia, India, and Nicaragua to the temples announced by President Nelson for a major city in Russia (which apparently means the temple will be located in Moscow, St. Petersburg, or Saratov, where the 3 stakes of the Church in Russia have been established), Bengaluru, and Managua respectively.

Before sharing the last article, I just wanted to interject here that the article about the reactions to those temples was one of the two that brought tears to my eyes. To hear of the sacrifices these Saints have made to get to the temples closest to their nations (which has involved extensive travel, and at times, some Saints having to miss their children's marriages due to visa issues) made my heart ache for them. But each one interviewed expressed gratitude for a temple in their midst. Particularly in Russia, it appears that, whichever of the three cities are chosen, the Saints in the other two locations will still have an extensive journey, although it will not be as lengthy or as costly as going to their currently assigned temple.

It is also worth reiterating something I have said before: For the Nicaraguan Saints, they have waited for a temple for a while. Six years ago, in January 2012, then-Elder Nelson felt to make an apostolic promise to the Saints in Nicaragua that they would have their own temple in the future. And now, as Church president, he has fulfilled that promise by announcing a temple for Managua. I do not think it is an accident that President Nelson has come to the Church presidency at a time when Managua was on the list of potential locations for which a temple could be built. With land having been held in reserve for such a temple for a while now, I would imagine that President Nelson will do everything in his power to ensure that he is around to preside at that temple's groundbreaking ceremony himself.

In the meantime, I also do not believe that it was accidental that temples have been announced recently in Russia and in India. As some of you might recall, I was one of many who, in offering thoughts about potential future temples, noted that such edifices might be a more distant prospect. In regards to that, I was grateful for the reminder that the Lord's ways, thoughts, and timing are higher than those offered by myself or anyone else. The timing of these announcements has always been the Lord's to govern. With that said, I also fully believe that the Lord held such announcements in reserve until President Nelson could make them as the new Church president.

The fact that the Lord's ways, thoughts, and timing are higher than ours also applies fully to the last Church news article I wanted to share. As many of you are aware, before General Conference, I had shared my opinion that, while I would love to see both of the newest apostles hail from outside the US, it was more likely that the Church would opt for someone American-born who had extensive international experience.

I was never more pleased to be proven wrong in that regard. Elder Gerrit W. Gong was born in the US, but has Asian ancestry, and Elder Soares is both the first South American and first Brazilian-born apostle appointed. With these appointments, 1/5 of the current 15 apostles were born outside the US, something we have not seen in Church history before now. Because Elder Gong is just short of 2 years older than Elder Stevenson, while Elder Soares is the new youngest apostle, it may be a while before we know how likely it might be that either could become president of the Church at some point.

But these appointments are very historic and significant, and demonstrate that President Nelson may be more willing to look at other internationally-born apostolic candidates than his predecessors might have been. That said, of the current apostles, all but one (President Ballard, who will be 90 later this year) are in their mid-to-late 70's or younger. With that in mind, it is hard to know how many (if any) other apostles might pass before President Nelson does. That will be interesting to see. Whatever happens, perhaps seeing President Nelson's willingness to appoint two international apostles as his first picks may mean that his successors in the presidency, whomever they may be, might be more willing to do so as well.

Sorry for that tangent, but it set the context for the final article I wanted to mention. In keeping with their tradition of publishing articles to introduce new Church leadership to Church members, the Church News as published one to introduce Elder Gong. His extensive experience includes being well educated, and time spent as a BYU-Provo administrator. As some of you might also recall, he was called as a General Authority in April 2010, and he was called to serve in the Presidency of the Seventy following Elder Rasband's October 2015 call to the Quorum of the Twelve.

If I may, I would like to share a personal experience I had with Elder Gong. He was an area seventy assigned to the Utah South Area who had been asked to accompany the General Authority Seventy visiting the conference in my parents' stake during the years I served in the temple. I was greatly impressed with his message, in which he demonstrated a clear understanding of the scriptures and encouraged us to improve ourselves in the ways that were suggested during that conference. After the session was over, I took the opportunity to greet him, and was impressed by his personal warmth and manner of expressing himself.

Because of this encounter, I can witness firsthand that he has been prepared throughout his life for his new calling. Although he has only given three talks in General Conference, two of those three (given in response to his apostolic call earlier this month, and one other given two years ago this month) spoke of the Savior and the important role He should have in our lives, while the other (given in October 2010 in response to his call as a General Authority) focused on the important role temples should have in the lives of Church members. I imagine these two topics will have a highly important emphasis during his ministry, among other subjects.

But I have rambled on long enough. That concludes the discussion of the articles I wanted to pass along to you all, so that does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

Additional Progress Noted for the Kinshasa DR Congo Temple

Hello again, everyone! In the early hours of April 12, I am back to unexpectedly report on progress that has been noted on the Kinshasa DR Congo Temple. I say it is unexpected primarily because I just posted a few short hours ago my revised estimates for future temple events. In that update, I had adjusted the time-frame in which that dedication might occur, pushing that estimate back to early-to-mid June 2019.

This was primarily because the Fortaleza Temple had, by comparison, progressed more consistently. With the updates I discovered a few hours ago for Kinshasa, I may again be changing my thinking. Those updates indicate that the exterior staircases have been poured for that temple, and that interior work continues to progress.

With that update in mind, there are a few questions to consider: Is this reported progress sufficient to warrant yet another change to the previously-offered estimates? If so, how might the reported progress affect those estimates for this and all other temple events? Could there be any additional delays for this temple, or will things go smoothly enough that it could be the next temple to have a dedication scheduled before any other events are?

I can answer all of these questions in the same way: I have no idea. The reported progress does give me hope that this temple is on track to be the next one dedicated. How soon we might hear of the next scheduled temple events is a question that is more difficult to answer. There are currently three temples (Frankfurt Germany, Oklahoma City Oklahoma, and Memphis Tennessee) that are anticipated to be rededicated and two new temples (Kinshasa DR Congo and Fortaleza Brazil) that are anticipated to have their dedications all within the same general time-frame (early-to-mid 2019, which I interpret as referring to anytime between the beginning of January and the end of June).

And there are so many unknowns regarding those five. We do know that the Fortaleza Brazil Temple was moved up on the list to where it now is prior to the end of last year, since new updates indicated that temple was ahead of schedule. But for the Kinshasa and Frankfurt Temples, their estimates have been moved around extensively. And although the Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple closed around half a month after the Memphis Tennessee Temple, of the two, the Oklahoma City Temple seems to be progressing more rapidly and maybe even ahead of schedule.

So there is a lot to consider when suggesting general completion estimates for such projects, and it gets even more tricky to try and pinpoint a more specific time-frame for such events. At this point, the feeling I have on the estimates provided earlier today is to wait and see what else might develop. If any of these temples get ahead of schedule or fall behind what is currently anticipated, that will, of course, necessitate further adjustments.

For now, just know that I continue to keep an eye on all of these things and that, if I see a reason that necessitates further adjustments to those estimates, I will be sure to make them and post them here ASAP. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.

Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Updated Estimates for Future Temple Events

Hello again, everyone! I wanted to post right now to share updated estimates which I have put together for future temple events. As we have seen so far in the first four months of 2018, lots of things have happened in terms of temple news and developments. I have the utmost confidence that such progress will continue to be reported on a regular basis. The updated estimates below reflects the best information I could put together from a wide variety of sources.

A disclaimer before I post those updates: I do not in any way claim to have access to official information from the Church about how likely these estimates might be. The timing of any temple event is up to the Lord (and, in some cases, the diligence of those working on such projects for the Church), and as such, any or all of these estimates are subject to change once any new information comes in.

That said, what I have been able to do is to look at different factors (such as the climate of areas in which such temples are built, a comparison of the current status of these temples with the timing of dedications or rededications of other temples that at one point had a similar or identical status, and anything else from which I could make any type of conclusion) and make the best determination about how those factors might expedite or delay such events.

It is not by any means a perfect process, and anyone else who has observed temple progress could likely do just as well as (if not better than) I myself have done. And I'm sure it goes without saying that these estimates are always subject to change based on how quickly or slowly progress is made on each of these temples.

With that in mind, for what it may be worth, the updated estimates I have put together follow below. So as not to disturb the flow of those estimates, I will close now as I always do. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilegeFuture estimates for known temple-related events

First half of 2018:
April: Full-scale construction anticipated to begin for the Winnipeg Manitoba Temple
Note: A Church member in Winnipeg has confirmed that construction of this temple is anticipated to begin this month.
Sunday April 22: Houston Texas Temple Rededication (private; date has been confirmed; President M. Russell Ballard, Acting President of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, will preside at this event)
Sunday May 20: Jordan River Utah Temple Rededication/Mesa Arizona Temple Renovation Closure (both have been confirmed)
Note: Since the rededication Jordan River Utah Temple is the first public temple event of President Nelson’s administration, it seems to be a given conclusion that he will preside at this event, if only the first one or two sessions. Since this temple is in the Salt Lake Valley, it seems entirely likely that several Church leaders will be in attendance at this event as well.

Second half of 2018:
Monday July 23: Hamilton New Zealand Temple Closes for Renovation
Sunday October 28: Concepcion Chile Temple Dedication (160th operating temple; confirmed)
Sunday December 9: Barranquilla Colombia Temple Dedication (161st operating temple; confirmed)

Final note on 2018: I have heard that 2018 could potentially be a big year for groundbreakings of temples currently announced. We have had an artist’s rendering and site announced for the Bangkok Thailand Temple, so that temple could have a groundbreaking in the near future. We also know that the contractor for the Lima Peru Los Olivos Temple indicated a year of pre-planning would be needed on the site before a groundbreaking could occur, so I am watching that one as well. With sites having recently been confirmed for the Urdaneta and Greater Manila Philippines and Brasilia Brazil Temples, I am watching those locations as well. And if the probable location for the Pocatello Idaho Temple is confirmed in the near future, a groundbreaking for it may just be a matter of time. I received additional reports that the Saratoga Springs Temple is currently being designed, and have heard that members in Harare Zimbabwe and Nairobi Kenya have been informed of the site locations for temples in their cities. If those locations are confirmed by the Church in the near future, groundbreakings could occur for both temples sooner rather than later. It will be interesting to see what happens in that regard.

First half of 2019:
Sunday March 10-Sunday March 17: Rome Italy Temple Dedication (162nd operating temple; confirmed)
Mid-April: Oklahoma City Oklahoma Temple Rededication
Mid-to-late April: Frankfurt Germany Temple Rededication
Early-to-mid May: Fortaleza Brazil Temple Dedication (163rd operating temple)
Mid-to-late May: Memphis Tennessee Temple Rededication
Early-to-mid June: Kinshasa Democratic Republic of the Congo Temple Dedication (164th operating temple)

Second half of 2019:
Early-to-mid August: Raleigh North Carolina Temple Rededication
Mid-to-late August: Port-au-Prince Haiti Temple Dedication
Early-to-mid September: Baton Rouge Louisiana Temple Rededication
Mid-to-late September: Lisbon Portugal Temple Dedication (166th operating temple)
Mid-October: Durban South Africa Temple Dedication (167th operating temple)
Mid-November: Oakland California Temple Rededication
Note: Since this is an older temple, if anything delays its’ completion, that might cause it to be pushed back into 2020.
Mid-December: Asuncion Paraguay Temple Rededication
Note: Although this temple closed for its’ renovation around the same time as the temple in Memphis Tennessee did, the renovation process has yet to begin. With that in mind, while I hope to be able to move this estimate up, I will not in any way be surprised if this temple is only rededicated towards the end of next year.

Final note on 2019: As with 2018, I have heard that 2019 could potentially be another big year for temple groundbreakings. If that proves to be the case, there will be other temple-related events to add to this list for subsequent years.
                     
First half of 2020:
Mid-March: Arequipa Peru Temple Dedication (168th operating temple)
Mid-to-late April: Rio de Janeiro Brazil Temple Dedication (169th operating temple)
Mid-May: Winnipeg Manitoba Temple Dedication (170th operating temple)
Early-to-mid June: Tokyo Japan Temple Rededication
Mid-September: Mesa Arizona Temple Rededication
Mid-December: Washington DC Temple Rededication

2021:
Mid-to-late April: Hamilton New Zealand Temple Rededication

Final note: If, as noted above, several temples have a groundbreaking during the next two years, that in turn would necessitate adding their completion estimates to the list above. I continue to monitor all temple-related developments and will pass news of them along as I receive word of them.
 of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.


Updated Chart Showing General Authorities and Officers of the Church Has Been Released

Hello again, everyone! This will just be a very brief post to note that the Church, in accordance with their usual practices, has released an updated version of the chart showing the General Authorities and General Officers of the Church.

Unless I have miscounted, this chart also shows 90 General Authority Seventies, which, when added to the 25 men that comprise the First Presidency, Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, Presidency of the Seventy, and Presiding Bishopric, brings the total number of General Authorities to 115 rather than the 116 that President Oaks referenced.

At this point, it's not impossible to believe he could have made an error, perhaps by failing to account for Elder Keetch's passing. We also know that in the press conference in which our new First Presidency took media questions, they directly addressed the issue that leaders make mistakes, and that no Church leader, themselves included, is infallible.

I personally know of only one perfect Man who ever lived upon this earth. For the rest of us, we are all prone to error. And when mistakes are made at any level (for example, President Oaks mentioning mid-way through the Saturday Afternoon Session that he had inadvertently omitted some of the names he was supposed to read), I would hope that, rather than criticizing the leaders who make them, all of us would recognize that their need to have a cloak of charity over their errors is just the same as the need all of us have to have those we know throw a cloak of charity over our errors.

Anyone who therefore finds fault with our leaders when such errors occur are clearly missing the fact that, while they have been prepared by the Lord for their current positions, that does not mean that they are any less human or less likely to make mistakes. Until any or all of us are made perfect in Christ, I would hope that we would all keep that in mind when issues such as this come up.

Enough said. You can find a PDF version of the the chart (as published on the Church's website) here. That does it for this post. Any and all comments are, as always, welcome and appreciated. Thank you for the privilege of your time. Until my next post, I wish each one of you all the best and pray that the Lord will bless you all in everything you do.